Incentives Matter for Time Arbitrage Potential

An important aspect of time arbitrage is the need to secure time based services, starting with those which aren't exactly top career choices. Plus, these tend to be poorly paid, particularly services for elderly assistance. And since people who work for the elderly may struggle with their own financial responsibilities, they aren't always trustworthy and reliable for the people most dependent on their care. 

Granted, it can seem the obvious solution is to ensure adequate pay for all employees, whatever job one happens to be responsible for! Unfortunately, societies have shown time and again that the notion of "livable wages" for all, isn't feasible, despite the tremendous need. My regular readers know that the fact money will continue to be insufficient incentive for such work, serves as a starting point for my own suggestions regarding markets for time value.

If we can't create markets which specifically reward time value, there may ultimately be cultural ramifications. For instance, as the costs of traditional healthcare and nursing homes continue to rise, societal expectations would increase for individuals to make undue sacrifices for their own family members. While it's understandable that existing institutions are less willing (or able) now to pay for time intensive services, we need new institutions which can do so in their stead.

When it comes to incentives for time based markets, one thing to consider is the need for autonomy, and how it revolves around ideas of fairness associated with shared responsibilities. Still, when we purposely spend time with others, those interactions often benefit from the undivided attention of both individuals involved. Indeed, this undivided attention can often be critical to services outcomes. 

Yet attention to details with its associated time related costs, is often more costly than what existing institutions can still provide. When institutions are willing to pay well for time based services, they may expect high skill knowledge providers to commit to such a degree, that burnout becomes inevitable. Even so, excessive time commitments can be burdensome whether one engages in simple skill sets or high skill activities. In time arbitrage, a full range of skill levels would be apportioned so as not to create undue time commitment burdens. A fuller sharing for all skill levels, could also bring respect to work which is now almost treated as a form of social "punishment" for those who struggle with traditional education. 

Here are just a few of the links I've come across lately which highlight the need for a better marketplace for time value. Occasionally I find myself overwhelmed at the extent of time based services needs which simply aren't being met at any skill level. Alas, as a society we have scarcely begun to address these concerns. How could anyone claim real economic progress, if societies keep trying to move forward without better means of coordination for applied knowledge and time based endeavour in general? The sooner we face the fact that money alone cannot accomplish these vital tasks, the sooner we can begin to create new free markets in time value.

How to think about better aligned incentives in this regard? We share a number of basic time commitment priorities in our lives which warrant consideration. One way to think about the processes involved is this: What services are specific individuals willing and capable of providing, so long as doing so doesn't interfere with or somehow impose on the other important facets of our lives? Recall that what anyone might be tolerant of providing in an hours time, is not the same thing as activities one prefers on a more regular basis. Yet markets which rely solely on monetary incentives, don't distinguish well for these differences in relative time preferences.  

More specifically, time arbitrage could take place in several ways. The basic form would be agreed upon time share agreements between two individuals. These commitments would  occur as close to the same time frame as possible. That said, it would not always be possible to benefit from time arbitrage on these terms. Fortunately there are also incentives that would compel individuals to commit time, for which one would hope to benefit at some point in the future.

For one, there are moments of spontaneity, in other words those occasions when people do something for others "just because". One way to think about this is "paying it forward", only this approach tends more toward monetary gifting than services. However, the voluntary actions of time arbitrage would be recorded in the same manner as other aspects of time arbitrage into a broader framework. In so doing, the initial voluntary action functions as partial economic unit which turns into a completed exchange (and its associated full economic value) once the provider accepts a voluntary action from someone which they don't need to reciprocate.  

Another important economic incentive is the natural concern for our own well being, should we become temporarily or even permanently dependent on others in some capacity. This of course also ties back to the concerns of elderly citizens mentioned above. Toward this end, time arbitrage functions as a form of social time based insurance. It's an example of partial matches we can initiate in the here and now which might not be reciprocated for a long time. Such matches could prove especially helpful during periods when we fall short on more immediate time matches with others, for instance. What particularly distinguishes social insurance from monetary insurance is its direct nature, in terms of mirroring the kinds of attention we would seek from others should we become more dependent on them. One way to broaden the potential of time arbitrage for purposes of social insurance, is to seek matches not just for one's personal needs, but also in terms of home maintenance and/or care for family members. 

There's one more consideration as well. When it comes to personal incentives, what are our greater aspirations in life? How might those aspirations change over time? Local community coordination would not be complete, if participating groups didn't make room for everyone to discover challenging work which suits their own motivations and long term goals. Recall as well, how this is the part of time arbitrage which has the potential to contribute to applied knowledge in its more complex forms. What's different in this regard, is the time arbitrage approach to knowledge sharing. 

Might Good Deflation Counter Excess Monetary Demand?

What makes good deflation so desirable? It all starts when increased output is possible with fewer resources overall. Once price reductions per unit come into play, they in turn lead to real wage gains and higher productivity levels. I believe that good deflation could become a services sector response to counteract high inflation and rising interest rates. Given the many positives of good deflation, what accounts for such resistance to its potential in housing and time based services?

Even though both areas must deal with the natural scarcities of time and place, much of the bias against good deflation potential is inadvertent and political in nature. Not only are such biases protectionist, they discourage adaptive evolution in time and place based product - evolution which could otherwise augment their capacity despite their natural limitations. While time based skill and land as real estate are certainly not exponential in nature, they could still add additional output through flexible coordination of knowledge and land use potential.

Bias characteristics also differ depending on the markets and sectors in question. For instance, progressives and conservatives increasingly prefer a restoration of local manufacturing over global free trade. Fortunately - even though this anti free market bias will increase manufacturing costs to some degree - globalized manufacture should continue benefiting nations in the foreseeable future. At the very least, it's reasonable to expect good deflation to ultimately be restored in global markets. Once tradable sector resource access is more stable and predictable, it should become more cost effective as well.  

Societies are fortunate indeed, that tradable sector activity is often managed for full production efficiencies. Still, during times of high inflation, we're reminded of the dangers of taking good deflation in tradable sectors for granted. Indeed, relying on the serendipity of long term good deflation (along with the more recent low inflation pattern) made it easy to disregard the long term inefficiencies of non tradable sectors. These inefficiencies remain in place due to countless quality requirements, many of which have been exacerbated by government subsidies. 

Recall however, that these requirements end up as ever more inputs in relation to aggregate output. Even when quality gains are worth additional costs for some, other groups suffer efficiency losses which in turn require additional personal labour for non discretionary needs. Consequently when it comes to quality of life, some income groups are actually moving backwards. Again, constant calls for higher wages occur because lower income groups need to work more hours than is sometimes feasible to meet their financial responsibilities.

Fortunately there are already better production methods which could establish disinflation in housing - methods which could eventually lead to good deflation as well. Just the same, a considerable amount of social and political bias has prevented the majority of flexible housing options. In this restrictive environment, progressives tend to focus on time based constraints for meeting financial obligations. Whereas conservatives are more concerned about place based constraints, such as immigrants who are seen as competing for already scarce housing. 

Despite the protectionism that stands in the way of production reform, housing is still a simpler issue to solve than markets based on time and personal skill. Hence countering excess monetary demand could begin with more flexible interpretations of housing for all income levels. Otherwise, many individuals will remain subject to the first mover problem of providing valuable services for others by more accessible means, only to be locked out of the housing necessary for this to happen. For that matter, one of the main reasons wages recently increased for the lowest income levels, is that employers were faced with the fact no housing existed nearby which their employees could afford. 

Societies need to focus on non tradable sector production issues, since they are at the heart of recent inflation which is proving difficult to eradicate. However, there's something else important about productivity expectations which needs to be noted here. When productivity involves final product which is independent of personal labour, these areas do have capacity for exponential output. Since our economic time is not exponential, it often demands a higher price as a fixed quantity. In these instances, people rely on investments in knowledge and skill to increase their time value. Alas, institutions then tend to respond by substituting away from time based input, in order to meet their financial obligations! Despite the obvious drawbacks of this effect, our current understanding of productivity gains makes it a rational approach, especially if institutional budgets are already in jeopardy. 

How, then, could good deflation be achieved in skills use without having to substitute away from time based input? One way is to make mutual time commitments, or time arbitrage, a valid and measurable economic unit. Skill sets would be voluntarily chosen and independent of monetary value. However, group effort would also utilize monetary compensation as a base to keep the process in motion. Time arbitrage might help societies maintain and preserve what they build and create, plus the knowledge and skills involved would be simultaneously measured as cumulative gains. Time as an economic unit of value is also one way to overcome the Baumol effect and ultimately, achieve good deflation in time based services. Again, production gains would transpire on completely different terms in these settings. Once housing production reform begins in earnest, economic validity for mutual time commitments would be the logical next step.

Are Charter Cities a Possibility for Migrants?

What if nations sought to create new cities instead of camps for the ever growing numbers of migrant refugees? A recent article for Brookings suggests this policy option, and the authors explain:

Charter cities are new urban developments that have been granted special jurisdiction to create their own governance systems. Clearly defined legal frameworks, good governance, efficient distribution of public goods, and modern infrastructure could support well-functioning markets and attract investments to generate higher rates of economic growth in charter cities. Based on these principles, we propose to establish sustainable charter cities-in-exile (SCCEs) as a policy framework for host countries and international development organizations to promote refugees' self-reliance and facilitate their integration. The proposal supplements existing migration policies, especially in areas of identified procedural and logistical bottlenecks, and supports refugees in their freedom of choice of migration destinations.

In some ways I find this proposal impractical, given the difficulties involved. One can only imagine the political battles that would ensue in the U.S. were policy makers to suggest something similar. Yet some nations may prove more willing to address these issues, which accounts for a response from The Global Eye.

It is clear that we all want legal and regulated immigration but the issue is highly complex and is characterized by growing complexity.

Still, their response to the Brookings article considers the possibilities:

It seems to us a viable prospect for a phenomenon that, politically, has been reduced to an invasion and a threat. Without changing perspective, politics will continue to deny the structural nature of the phenomenon and only aggravates its consequences.

My biggest concern in all this, is the extent to which economic complexity is starting to limit what traditional institutions can successfully coordinate for services and infrastructure, especially in areas which lack wealth sources. Granted, a century earlier, even individual private companies (as one example) could still manage the services and infrastructure involved for company towns, but larger versions today would be no easy feat. Alas, only consider the difficulties private companies in the U.S. encounter today, if they attempt to provide affordable healthcare for their employees.

Indeed, the serendipitous interaction between primary and secondary markets in the most prosperous regions, largely accounts for the economic dynamism of our present. However many knowledge providers are reluctant to settle in regions which come up short in this regard. Considered in this light, what these charter cities need to generate could be difficult. More specifically, "sustainable cities-in-exile" (SCCE's) would 

seek to provide refugees with a place of safety, an immediately available assistance network, and an accelerated path towards professional and income opportunities. A guarantor country or group of countries would enforce the SCCE's charter while guaranteeing the safety of private sector investments and firms, including those from the country of origin with temporary headquarters-in-exile. A proper institutional architecture guaranteed and monitored by national governments and international guarantors, with direct involvement of the refugees and local communities, would help to reduce the risks of crime, human rights abuses, and sexual exploitation.

While these are worthy goals, who would fund the traditional institutions required to make it all happen? It's this same lack of funding for vital traditional institutions here, which leaves many citizens without basic amenities in rural and underdeveloped areas. For that matter, a recent Washington Post article highlights how American territories are losing population in similar ways. 

At stake in all this, are distributional scarcities and limitations in some of our most important institutions, particularly those representative of secondary markets for applied knowledge. I believe that in order for new cities to happen, people will need stronger connections with direct forms of wealth creation and applied knowledge systems. Otherwise, many newcomers would remain dependent on the assistance of institutions already unable to meet the needs of local citizens. Chances are, the problems of immigration won't be so severe, once applied knowledge institutions evolve to allow skills participation for all individuals. After all, many nations would be more open to immigration, if their own citizens could participate in applied knowledge networks as well. 

Experiential Markets Versus Personal Management in Healthcare

Healthcare in the U.S. is a prime example of missing markets for lower income groups. Nevertheless, more than costs are at stake, since other income groups with greater access to healthcare are still dubious about its actual value. Texas ranks highest in limited healthcare access, where in recent years the uninsured are approximately 17 to 18 percent of its population. I am among them since Medicare in the U.S. (which is gradually transitioning to private insurance) is becoming more costly and less predictable for retirees - regardless of income. However, once I retired, I started setting aside money every six months in the event of future healthcare emergencies, rather than paying Medicare premiums.

For many healthcare consumers, careful budgetary responsibility means a high level of frugality regarding any kind of professional assistance. People still believe that healthcare is important, but some of what is missing now, is a matter of regretful consumer choice. How is any of this rational? Two issues in particular stand out: What have people come to expect in terms of healthcare, and how have those expectations fallen so short of the mark? Even though much healthcare dialogue is framed in terms of costs, the very nature of personal interchange in healthcare activity is crucial as well. 

Meanwhile, many individuals increasingly take a personal management approach to healthcare, in hopes of successfully addressing whatever problems might arise. While this approach can be successful, it does has good and bad aspects. The good - of course - is increased personal responsibility for one's own health prospects. The bad? Alas, there are moments in life when it's not feasible to arrive at a clear diagnosis. Worse, there are emergency situations when we are in no position to tend to ourselves without assistance from others. Yet not all nations are fully committed to this elusive ideal of mutual assistance, or even the importance of community in general. Unfortunately, both happen to be the case in the U.S. Hence we are approaching the point where there is insufficient monetary support for healthcare's existing institutions. As the reality of this starts to sink in for healthcare professionals, perhaps they will eventually try new approaches for the preservation and use of vital knowledge - at least one can hope. 

Personal healthcare management is an unalloyed plus. For one thing, consumers and patients have far more time to dedicate to preventative maintenance than do physicians. Also, there's no "one size fits all" for decision making in applied knowledge. Each individual is unique in their personal makeup and approach. Likewise, consumers can maintain personal healthcare histories, and at the very least, AI might be able to do so in the near future. After all, AI is not subject to the same time scarcity constraints as are healthcare professionals. Also, as patients age, they tend to devote much more time to healthcare self management than is generally necessary in one's younger years. In all of this however, traditional media can feel insulting when reporters and journalists stress the dangers of self diagnosis and personal care outside the attention of professional physicians.

If only personal management were enough to take care of healthcare issues. Instead, sometimes our survival depends on the help of others, even if we cannot afford it or worse, end up belittled by the processes involved. For instance, several years ago, an ambulance crew convinced my father to ride to the hospital after a bleeding episode to make sure everything was okay, only for my father to be berated by the physician who complained his time had been wasted. Instances such as this are why people think twice about help in dangerous situations, since one seldom knows whether mutual respect is feasible. People would likely feel better about mutual assistance as taxpayer obligation, had societal skill levels not become so extremely unbalanced. There will be no institutional reform, if possibilities for mutual respect aren't somehow restored. 

Finding better balance in skills levels between individuals, means finding ways to make our time value economic in markets for time based services. How do we create mutual interdependence which is also economic in nature? I get that physicians and other healthcare providers no longer have sufficient time for their patients. In all fairness to healthcare providers, healthcare today shares similar time product scarcities with other secondary markets for applied knowledge. The biggest problem in this regard, are situations which call for mutual time based interaction, yet too few groups in society are able to effectively coordinate the skills involved. Further, additional layers of management in too many instances, cannot make up for time scarcities in crucial skills. Instead, excess management often adds needless complexities and costs, not to mention lowered ability for providers and recipients to find reciprocity in their interactions.

Without direct relationships in time based assistance, societies are losing their ability to effectively manage the demand and supply of time based product in the marketplace. These losses could explain much of society's current dissatisfaction with its existing institutions. Despite this disillusionment, getting down to specifics regarding how to move forward in common purpose, is proving to be the hardest part. Neither experts or laypeople are in a suitable position to implement institutional evolution in the 21st century. 

Though this is one time when solutions are not about "appropriate" credentials, even professionals tend to be criticized when they step out of their immediate domain of expertise. In this environment, how is it even possible for outsiders to be taken seriously? As it turns out, social media gives plenty of permissions for wide ranging complaints regarding why things go wrong, whatever that may be. What social media hasn't been willing to do, and what particularly disappoints me, is its lack of online promotion for suggestions as to how problems can be addressed. We simply can't can't afford to hide anymore from the specific hows of institutional change, despite the fact they are unbelievably difficult and frustrating to confront. For a while, I'd also become reluctant to write about how. But I can't hide my head in the sand any longer.

Incentives Matter for Continuous Procedural Maintenance

As economies gradually become more complex, basic structural maintenance grows more complicated also. Yet the maintenance of our lives, physical environments and knowledge structures is perceived as economic burden, and societies now lack sustainable market structure in crucial areas. During cycles of primary market dominance, societies come to rely on continuous procedural maintenance through monetary and non monetary means. Now however, some of what we've relied on for full maintenance capacity, has been lost. This is particularly true for the use of knowledge in society. 

Just the same, maintenance needs don't go away, and we need new thought processes which can recreate reliable continuance. Doing so means the transformation of our dependent (or secondary) markets, as these areas especially lack incentive to maintain societal stability through monetary compensation alone. In all this, governments are increasingly pressured to minimize fiscal burdens in the use of applied knowledge and skill. We have already seen how procedural maintenance is perceived as taxpayer burden, as political groups now seek to undo the institutions of knowledge and action with nothing sustainable to take their place.

Private enterprise also lacks incentive to make full use of applied knowledge, especially if doing so is perceived as a problem for profit maximization. This isn't good news for societies in the years ahead, since more effective use of knowledge is needed to overcome numerous obstacles to continued progress. These are just some of the reasons I've advocated for time arbitrage commitment as an economic unit of value, to supplement crucial maintenance where monetary compensation so often falls short.

Nevertheless, some reluctance on the part of governments and private enterprise, is understandable. After all, various interest groups have been notorious for creating maintenance "requirements" which are basically about profit making opportunities, instead of true systemic support. Despite the fact faux maintenance isn't often immediately obvious, it occurs routinely in the knowledge based demands of healthcare, education, finance and legal professions. As these additional costs accrue across the spectrum, it only gets more difficult for people, governments and businesses alike to preserve their efforts in society. 

Unproductive forms of economic complexity increasingly dominate our redistribution flows. If this weren't enough, the recent cultural battles leave more productive forms of economic complexity on shaky ground. Clearly, too many economic incentives haven't been well aligned for basic maintenance needs. Indeed, a major part of what makes it difficult to maintain productive economic complexity over long periods, is that societies tend to downplay the very activities which conserve valuable patterns of production. How might this be changed?

Ownership and Output in Excess Nominal Claims

Excess nominal income claims are too common in local service markets which are not discretionary. Governments and special interests alike tend to limit these options, thereby reducing effective management for both our personal obligations and physical environments. If this unfortunate circumstance weren't enough, excess claims in these areas are starting to impact monetary policy as well.

Our potential for ownership and personal responsibility are sorely compromised, when too many markets for basic life needs are narrowly defined. The markets most affected are those involving human capital, skill potential and housing. Alas, these are now mostly intended for the use of higher income groups. What's left for ownership potential, includes traditional housing (with its legal benefits of family inheritance), financial markets for the traditional capital of wealth building, and the formal institutions which now link human capital to status and monetary gain. All of these are associated with equilibrium imbalance and excess nominal claims. 

How might one think about this? What's most affected includes the framing of artificial scarcity. Recently a gap has opened between aggregate nominal income and the output of GDP. Might this gap have been induced by purposeful reduced output (artificial scarcity), while maintaining similar levels of income expectations? And how does artificial scarcity contrast with natural scarcity for such correlations? After all, when income is derived from production via natural scarcities, existing output is more likely close to what is feasible and consistent with equilibrium or GDP potential. Perhaps due in part to the contributions of production via natural scarcities, nominal income has closely mirrored aggregate output for quite some time.

I'd like to think that production reform for non traditional housing and applied human capital, could help diminish the unexpected gap between aggregate income and GDP output. Non traditional housing options and horizontal alignment for services coordination, could lead to good deflation. Eventually such reform could lead to better equilibrium balance with other sources of wealth.

Indeed we've been fortunate that equilibrium imbalance can take centuries to become a macroeconomic problem. It's interesting how Adam Smith worried about equilibrium imbalance in his framing of"productive" and "unproductive" workers (Wealth of Nations), before the closely related Baumol effect became a legitimate concern. Perhaps the fact this process took so long to evolve, is what makes it difficult to relate to in the present.

Just the same, much is at stake. We need to recognize and respond to the burdens imposed by the expectations of our domestic services markets. Should we instead elect not to change anything, even the best NGDP monetary policy scenario would eventually lead to less applied knowledge for societies in the decades to come. Excess nominal claims with no other market options, would mean a gradual loss of our capacity to fulfill the challenges of a modern economy. It's time to consider building a future on more viable and sustainable terms.

Is Time Arbitrage Feasible For Post Covid Economies?

Even though time arbitrage would be a complex undertaking (particularly for large scale versions), today's time based services are nevertheless being called into question, as post Covid realities gradually emerge. Plus there's plenty of unknowns in time based service markets which represent a wide range of knowledge, skill, and yes, physical activities as well. How will societies ultimately respond?

While problems were already evident in secondary markets such as healthcare before the pandemic, there's also recent troubles for time based services that are directly linked to originating (primary market) wealth. For instance, both manufacturers and home improvement retailers have limited incentive to compensate the time based labour involved in installations and repairs at private residences. Worse, these resulting service labour shortages are amplified by resistance among service workers who were never really keen on commuting to outlying areas in the first place! Indeed, a CEO for Whirlpool expressed concern that labour shortages may in fact be structural. Likewise, Zillow, recently had to stop purchasing homes when it struggled to secure sufficient timely labour in order to resell at a profit.

More specifically, what can be done at local levels, should time centered services become increasingly difficult to procure from a distance? Just as time arbitrage could function as a primary market substitute for some of today's secondary markets in knowledge and skill, it could also shore up missing services associated with traditional primary markets. In many instances, time arbitrage could benefit coordination patterns in local services where strength and physical stamina may be just as important as knowledge and skill. Since many manufacturers and retailers have become compromised in terms of services employment potential, they could shift towards establishing commodity and goods specific educational support for their product to local community levels. Doing so would also allow local citizens to more meaningfully incorporate home renovation and appliance maintenance needs in their (time symmetric) educational settings Even though local citizens would not be employed by home improvement manufacturers and retailers, they still have incentive to work with these firms for an outcome that would help both groups. Best, a hub and spoke (or city to country) educational approach could help recreate formal services economies where they are most needed. 

Better use of coordinated time symmetry could eventually help restore structural balance to economic conditions in general. Chances are, efforts to bring time value to the table for market outcomes, would result in greater general equilibrium representation for direct forms of wealth creation than is presently the case. After all, there's a good chance that 80 percent monetary representation for services was too much to begin with, to maintain long term economic stability. Only consider the prominent example of structural imbalance in our healthcare knowledge use patterns. Even Noah Smith recently challenged "shoveling money at overpriced service industries", hence has become one of many who wonder why governments continue to subsidize vital services purposely made scarce in the twentieth century.

Long term economic stability may well depend on whether societies are able to make time value a more important component of formal economic activity. All the more so, since many communities already struggle to provide the kinds of local services which are so beneficial for citizen outcomes. When it comes to general equilibrium dynamics, time arbitrage might at least be able to reduce the discrepancy between monetary representation for services versus traditional wealth sources, to 70 percent versus 30 percent. 

A more reasonable sectoral balance could improve the long term odds of good economic complexity in our formal activities. One way to think about the processes involved, is how such efforts might ensure reliable forms of societal coordination to transfer knowledge and skill which can be understood by most citizens. Otherwise - if and when service markets become distorted - people understandably react with DIY measures instead of - for example - benefiting from healthcare services provided by others. Granted, DIY is often the most practical strategy. But done in excess, extreme self reliance might put the long term preservation and transfer of knowledge use through society, in doubt. And should too many of us end up resorting to DIY, when might the process eventually evolve into a tipping point of informal economic activity, even in places where it was never expected? Alas, informal economies have their problems (such as oppressive amounts of gang activity) and often prove difficult to change once entrenched. If we can avoid it, let's just not go there. Hopefully, societies will learn to better coordinate services so that knowledge and skill can be preserved, hence remain part of our formal economies in the foreseeable future.

Walkable Community Can't Happen Soon Enough

If only we already had more walkable communities! While they are occasionally found in high income locations, lower income groups could especially benefit from them. After all, local walkability reduces transportation costs, which in turn makes it easier to budget for local housing options. 

One wonders whether this logic is included in billionaire Marc Lore's plans which could eventually produce a walkable city. Alas, his vision is only on the drawing board at the moment. Indeed, for anyone whose life could be enhanced by walkable community in the here and now, Lore's initial starting point of 2030 must seem a long way off. According to CNN:

The former Walmart executive last week unveiled plans for Telosa, a sustainable metropolis that he hopes to create, from scratch, in the American desert. The ambitious 150,000-acre proposal promises eco-friendly architecture, sustainable energy production and a purportedly drought-resistant water system. A so-called "15 minute city design" will allow residents to access their workplaces, schools and amenities within a quarter-hour commute of their homes.

For one thing, it's not helpful to frame these efforts as cultural battles, as Tucker Carlson recently did.  In particular, petroleum production will continue to be an important part of near future market patterns for all populations. There's no need to imagine petroleum production as mostly advantageous for rural dwellers and others who embrace the low population densities associated with automotive ownership. Hopefully, petroleum production will continue to enhance a wide range of global markets, even as other energy sources gradually come to the fore. In all of this, we can encourage free markets which represent a diverse range of population densities. If national governments are willing to remain open minded re diverse market preservation, we stand a better chance of preserving market freedoms at local and state levels as well. 

Nevertheless there's some wishful thinking in this latest city building attempt, which needs to be addressed. While "human centered" communities are a reasonable desire, who really knows what that means? Fortunately, a better understanding could be gleaned via the active discovery of individual and group time preferences, through markets for time value. Time based service markets would make it easier to discern preferences that could translate into local time and space design. A free market orientation for time value, is vitally important for any "15 minute city design" to function as intended. Otherwise, participating groups would struggle to effectively coordinate times and places for getting things done.

Mutually determined individual/group needs are key for services based markets in the 21st century. In all of this, intentional markets should not mean imposing specific group preferences on other groups with different outlooks and lifestyles. Rather, intentional markets could create better defined environments that respect personal choice, so as to broaden market possibilities for everyone.

The Role of Formal Education in Cultural Divides

What makes our formal educational institutions such a problem when it comes to long term economic stability? Unfortunately, they contribute to our cultural battles by dividing people into haves and have nots, when it comes to skill sets and access to vital information. While this is obviously a problem for citizens in mature economies, these educational divides impact lesser developed nations as well. 

For instance, when emerging economies lack sufficient wealth sources to fund high level human skill, formal education can become associated with "brain drains" or possibly even the need to escape one's country to achieve success. Hence such circumstance pose a threat to many in underdeveloped countries (alas, such as Afghanistan), where knowledge based skills are not yet a dominant factor for local economic activity. Indeed, how could "nation building" ever substitute for the economic pursuits which local citizens need to generate for themselves?

In advanced economies, cultural divides play out differently. All too often, the asymmetrical financial obligations of today's human capital, can crowd more direct wealth sources. Not surprisingly, battles over who even "deserves" access to high skill human capital, lead to social instability and polarization. This lack of long term monetary sustainability for high skill human capital, is already undermining national economies regardless of their level of economic complexity. Hopefully it is not too late to embrace a wide range of valuable human capital formation which doesn't require college degrees, familial wealth, or extensive monetary compensation for that matter. I believe it is still possible to make time use an integral source of wealth in its own right. With a little luck, our formal educational institutions may eventually recognize the need for such an approach as well. 

At the very least, nations now sense that nation building is not a reasonable option. What's more, top down "solutions" leave little room for the true potential of local knowledge and skill alongside tradable sector wealth sources. In order to bridge our cultural divides, new communities are needed, where local participants can generate sustainable sources for human capital formation. Such communities could actually function as knowledge priors, since participating group time could be coordinated symmetrically. Reciprocal time value would in turn allow new wealth to be built via knowledge and skill, without need of compensation from other forms of wealth. 

The monetary flows which exist between primary and secondary markets, affect our structural economic realities in ways that aren't always easy to understood. Let's observe more closely, the nature of existing originating wealth sources. Why do they already exist, and how might they be further augmented? Applied knowledge via coordinated time could serve as a more direct form of wealth creation, so that primary markets eventually come into better balance with dependent or secondary markets. Best, more efficient patterns for human capital formation, would make it possible to address the limitations of formal education which exacerbate our cultural divides.

Supply and Demand is Vital for Economic Time Use

Despite the fact we often try to disassociate our private lives from economic activity in general, much of our identity - not to mention self respect - results from how effectively we manage our time with others. And let's face it: much of this time management tends to occur on market based terms. Equally important, is that we live in an era when economic time factors into countless personal interactions in the circumstance in our lives. 

How might one think about this? Since people routinely seek to take part in supply and demand for mutual time priorities, life becomes difficult for those who essentially find themselves excluded from the process. Nevertheless, many institutions have reduced the degree to which most individuals are able to effectively manage competing time demands. Even though higher income levels can still hire others for time based services, most income groups lack this luxury. What's needed now is innovation which leads to freer markets, for the supply and demand of mutual time based services preferences. 

Markets for time value would benefit from a focus on local time/space coordination, in the provision of services both basic and experiential in nature. For instance, how might greater autonomy be preserved for all participants? Only consider the preferences often expressed by senior citizens who occasionally need personalized attention, but otherwise would benefit from simpler physical environments so as to remain responsible for other aspects of their lives. Indeed, elder citizens sometimes opt to choose assistance from strangers (or even robots) over family, if they are concerned about loss of autonomy and consequently, self respect.

During the twentieth century, many institutions "professionalized" to such a extent that societies could scarcely tap into the potential which all citizens hold for mutual assistance. Alas, formal schooling became the main setting where students deemed to be "responsible" enough for future meaningful employment, were separated from everyone else. How can societies maintain viability for the long term, if a core of 25 percent (core employment with benefits) is expected to somehow "take care" of the near 75 percent who end up on the short end of the social equation? Small wonder that many citizens have taken to daydreaming about somehow returning to a previous "golden age" of manufacturing work with ample pay and benefits.

In all of this, we've also lost perspective as to the kinds of mutual time preferences individuals would prefer, if given the chance. Indeed, the present dearth of settings where personal priorities are expressed and taken into account, has impacted our personal relationships as well. Clearly, people are happiest when they have real choices in the the nature and frequency of their personal interactions. This is true not only for people of normal working age, but also for young and old. Without those choices, many of us gradually forget how to even interact "normally" with others. Perhaps in the near future, we can better adapt market freedoms toward the supply and demand of personal preferences and priorities in our lives. It's certainly not too late to get started.

The Importance of Economic Sustainability

April 22nd was the anniversary of Earth Day (beginning in 1970) which emphasizes environmental restoration and sustainability. However, this global acknowledgement reminds me that some aspects of sustainability get emphasized over others which are seldom noted. In particular - despite ongoing efforts to achieve financial and monetary stability as well - why has economic sustainability not received more attention?

After all, citizens need to be able to manage their own lives effectively, before they turn their attention to the physical care of their environments - at least insofar as sustainability is generally presented in the media. If sustainability dialogue focuses on anti growth or perhaps anti capitalism, then why do so many proposed environmental "solutions" end up costing more money than the poor can afford? Plus: paradoxically, the poor actually contribute to earth's resource preservation in many instances, since they have little choice but to limit their own consumption. 

Perhaps economic sustainability has not been considered, since instead of government dictates, it involves market centered options which lead to fewer financial burdens for low income levels. Unfortunately, when domestic providers prefer to keep consumption costs high, this results in an upward price spiral, as citizens respond by demanding ever rising wages to meet non discretionary costs. If this weren't enough, groups which lack the political power to demand "living" wages, also lack the ability to garner respect from society for the work they do. 

Let's reduce the spiral of ever rising wage demands, by bringing non tradable sector markets - especially time based services and basic housing components - within reach of all citizens. Once production reform becomes a reality, we will all benefit from the process. The road to greater stability in economic systems, is one which creates a more open version of market potential than is currently taking place.

Fortunately, there are many ways to make domestic innovation and production reform feasible. Should municipalities prove hesitant to make room for walkable options, why not create new communities which integrate walkable elements in the core of their design. When cities and towns won't address zoning and regulations which limit housing, create new communities that are willing to build flexible forms of housing and work spaces. And most of all, build new communities which actively engage in a full range of time based services generation. Make sure all residents are included in local calendars for work, play, and more, during the course of every year. 

All these elements might add up to a sustainable future, one where high income levels are no longer necessary to live a good and meaningful life. Once we create viable market options which don't require excess use of earth's resources in the first place, sustainability might finally be envisioned in broader terms.

Quality Product Isn't the Same as Rising Standards of Living

Often it appears that quality product gains and productivity gains are one and the same. However, might quality product occasionally detract from rising standards of living? Confusion about quality product as an aspect of productivity, deserves more attention than it receives. For example, recently Timothy Taylor opened a post re the productivity slowdown after 2005 with this observation: 

In the long run, a rising standard of living is all about productivity growth. When the average person in a country produces more per hour worked, then it becomes possible for the average person to consume more per hour worked.

But, how do we know when this desirable process actually occurs?  When might organizational processes to generate product quality, diminish aggregate consumer potential instead? Societies need better measuring indicators to determine how aggregate input/output requirements affect basic levels of consumption potential. Only recall how presently, many of the costs of excessive inputs for quality services are being shifted to future generations, via deferred debt and budgetary burdens. Indeed, much about our future economy, depends on the extent to which human capital contributes to exponential output gains, symmetric time coordination, or else the excessive time scarcities that today's knowledge providers have generated.

The differences in time versus exponential product designations, are vitally important for how we frame organizational capacity and the productivity which contributes to GDP representation. Nevertheless, these sectoral differences are difficult to conceptualize, because productivity is not often described in such terms. Consequently, the highly valuable yet costly product of time based services, poses undue financial societal burdens. Our lack of understanding as to the actual inputs and outputs that time scarce services involve, might consequently leave some of this future organizational capacity in doubt. 

Oddly, much of the present confusion, actually comes down to a one size fits all productivity perspective. Given the lack of more precise tradable sector and non tradable sector measures, the present combination is statistically confused as what an "average person in a country produces". Since this perspective doesn't distinguish between time centered output versus exponential forms of output, many forms of applied knowledge lack economic clarity. In particular, we still don't know approximate time increments that are expected of the average individual for the most basic aspects of non discretionary consumption. Before anyone gets sidelined by productivity factors such as leisure time or seemingly "free" consumption gains, basic non discretionary requirements are really the starting point for other productivity considerations. Plus, knowing a base level of expected consumption costs in relation to multiple income levels, provide clues how production input/output ratios matter most for consumers and producers. 

Should tradable and non tradable sectors gain more accurate forms of input/output representation, it would become simpler to think about the differences in approach these groups really need for purposes of long term productivity gains. All the more so, since when non tradable sectors focus on quality product, thus far they've inadvertently done so in ways which detract from further consumption options in the marketplace. 

Ultimately, even though quality product isn't the same as rising standards of living, that doesn't mean time based forms of product aren't important. Not only are many forms of time based product desirable, the time scarcities of production and consumption are among the most important considerations for total or multi factor productivity. Even though organizations logically seek to "save" time (via traditional productivity reductions of time/hours in relation to other inputs), there's still our personal motivation to "use" our economic time in the most significant ways possible. 

Occasionally, the best choices in this regard turn out to be experiential time spent with others. For the most part, we seek to balance the economic time we hope to gain from others, with the economic time we hope to share with them. Rather than leaving such decisions to a relative few professionals or possibly artificial intelligence, the best approach really comes down to the kinds of economic time that all citizens hope to take part in.

Time Based Product and the Profit/Productivity Conundrum

When it comes to service organizations, an investment approach such as private equity can sometimes lead to problems, if personal time is an important component of final product. All the more so in healthcare, should patients need individualized attention for successful outcomes. How might we respond, if and when profit gains result in less personal time with patients in particular? 

For example, a recent NBER working paper, "Does private equity investment in healthcare benefit patients?" highlights the issue of patient neglect. In the abstract, the researchers note how

Our estimates show that PE ownership increases the short-term mortality of Medicare patients by 10%, implying 20,150 lives lost due to PE ownership over our twelve-year sample period. This is accompanied by declines in other areas of patient well-being, such as lower mobility, while taxpayer spending per patient episode increases by 11%. 

An article from Vox further elaborates:

The researchers studied patients who stayed at a skilled nursing facility after an acute episode at a hospital, looking at deaths that fell within the 90-day period after they left the nursing home. They found that going to a private equity-owned nursing home increased mortality for patients by 10 percent against the overall average.

As it turns out, the result was more pronounced for patients who were relatively healthier, since sicker patients benefited from time based regiments deemed too necessary for targeted reductions. Whereas other services appeared more amenable to time adjustments. So private equity changes

include a reduction in staffing, which prior research has found is the most important factor in quality of care. Overall staffing shrinks by 1.4 percent, the study found, but more directly, private equity acquisitions lead to cuts in the number of hours that front-line nurses spend per day providing basic services to patients. Those services, such as bed turning or infection prevention aren't medically intrusive, but they can be critical to health outcomes.

The researchers noted an increase in the use of psychotics which could have substituted for personalized care as well. This study is certainly getting attention, for instance Matthew Yglesias referenced it as an example of meritocracy issues in a recent post. He stresses how smart people may be inclined to do "bad things":

Why do private equity takeovers kill so many people? It's not because the Wall Street boys are dimwitted. Their job is to look for companies that, for whatever reason, are not managed in a way that maximizes shareholder value...There's a lot more you could say about this story looking specifically at the lens of nursing home operations. But I'm interested in meritocracy. And the point here is that things can go awry not despite, but because smart people are in charge.

Indeed, it is easy to frame the unfortunate circumstance of nursing homes as a morality play, and there are countless other time relevant service examples which can be told in similar fashion. However, getting caught in these stories, instead of finding positive ways to respond, ultimately depresses us all. 

Why not try a more dispassionate view in the form of a total equilibrium perspective? Money cannot be expected to accomplish all things equally well, for everyone involved. More specifically, unsettling things will occur when money occasionally fails in its coordination tasks for time based services generation. Again, I can't stress enough that money is problematic when it is expected to remain the sole representation of economic value. For that matter, should we elect to create valid service markets for a full range of personal time potential, people would gain more opportunities to meet the needs of their loved ones, when existing organizational capacity does prove inadequate. And family members would not have to shoulder the entire load of caring for loved ones (outside the time limits of today's services institutions), once community members can freely participate in local platforms for services generation.

By no means would time arbitrage supplant existing meritocracies and their associative hierarchies. Rather, horizontally aligned communities would work alongside meritocratic organizations, meanwhile reinforcing the positives which merit based hierarchies do hold.

Could Time Arbitrage Stabilize Medium Term Growth?

Many have spoken of the need to build new growth and employment strategies, for even our medium term economic reality is somewhat uncertain. I remain convinced that time arbitrage could ultimately contribute to economic stability, in part due to its advantages as a continuum for local services generation.

Symmetric alignment for the time based coordination of local communities, could add to wealth in the here and now. What's more, locally generated time arbitrage would gradually reduce the need for the future fiscal obligations so many services now require. Since decentralized markets for time value would evolve as direct sources of wealth, they could create positive long term effects in terms of total factor productivity gains. 

In particular, time arbitrage may prove advantageous for medium term gains by stabilizing workplace participation for those who engage in person to person service offerings. As things currently stand, technology is beginning to replace the digital tasks which many came to rely on during the pandemic. And while pandemic circumstance initially led to losses in lower income employment (due to social distancing), continuing technology gains will ultimately result in losses of higher wage work, also. Recently, Bryan Walsh of Axios noted that software bots are "learning" to perform tasks previously assigned to office workers. He adds: 

Bots can make digital work more efficient by taking on onerous and repetitive white-collar tasks, but the better they get, the more competition they pose to skilled workers who might have thought themselves exempt from the job-disrupting effects of automation.

What's at stake in this development are continued efficiency gains, and why they are often deemed not just desirable but necessary. Granted, the efficiencies of earlier automation tended to be more closely associated with tradable sector activity. Over the decades - as these processes unfolded - the wealth gains of automation meant that "excess" tradable sector workers could subsequently find work in areas of non tradable sector activity. All the more so, due to additional wealth in circulation via exponential levels of tradable sector output.  

Nevertheless, eventually there would be no escape from the sectoral wealth shifts which eventually transpired. As the overall balance of GDP representation shifted from tradable sectors to non tradable sectors, it gradually became more difficult for tradable sector redistribution to support non tradable activity, given the compensatory claims the latter tended to require - especially when its organizational patterns were hierarchical in nature. 

Even so, much of today's non tradable sector endeavour is just as important for productive economic complexity, as what occurs in tradable sector activity. Unfortunately, many nations no longer have the full range of monetary flexibility they once had, for preserving the applied knowledge which modern economies need. Consequently, the challenge is to recreate more of this vital work on direct and reciprocal terms which are less hierarchical or costly to sustain. Time arbitrage is one way in which we might eventually make this possible. 

Increased efficiencies will always be a necessary component of getting things effectively done. And there is much efficiency to be gained through symmetric alignment which balances human capital inputs and outputs for time based service product. With symmetric time alignment, societies will eventually face fewer financial burdens which stem from the excess input requirements of human capital, in relation to time based services output. Time will always be our most scarce and precious resource. We can all realize productivity gains, by aligning our time with others in ways which make it simpler to meet markets for supply and demand in time based services generation.

Reimbursed Mutual Assistance > UBI or Guaranteed Job Programs

What if some form of universal basic income were to become a reality? Alas, should traditional employment decline in the near future, UBI is not a practical long term solution, especially given the nature of present day fiscal obligations. At most, UBI might serve as a stopgap measure, should a wide array of employment sources dry up simultaneously due to technological change. 

Chances are, UBI would also prove somewhat demoralizing, since many recipients would lose valuable opportunities for economic and social connections with others. Not only is a UBI approach likely to reduce our chances of greater economic integration, it could further polarize an already divided society - especially in terms of knowledge use and meaningful participation. 

Small communities in particular need proactive solutions for economic dynamism and long term potential, instead of compensation for basically being forgotten or left behind. Toward this end, compensation in the form of monetary reimbursement for voluntary mutual assistance, would be more practical than policy choices that don't address widespread social isolation. What's more, mutual assistance could be symmetrically aligned (via matched or reciprocal time) so as to create new wealth instead of additional demands on fiscal policy. Indeed, what could be better than creating internal rewards for our natural inclination as humans, to come together in order to get things done? 

Compensated or reimbursed mutual assistance at local levels, is also a better solution for many than guaranteed job programs. Unlike government generated work which often requires participants to relocate, compensated mutual assistance would allow local communities to create new job opportunities and workplace responsibilities in their own midst. And rather than attempting to fulfill the wants and needs of governments, the time arbitrage of mutual assistance would allow people to create entirely new local markets - markets which are responsive to shared individual wants and needs. 

Reimbursed mutual assistance contains other advantages as well. For instance, it could lead to the local creation of knowledge based services - services which otherwise tend to be difficult to access via hourly wages alone. Fortunately, the supply side approach of reimbursed mutual assistance would bring additional value to our collective time, so as to make it capable of meeting a full range of basic needs. Eventually, better coordination of time value could lead to greater community trust as well. This is especially needed in the U.S. where a substantial degree of trust has been eroded away.

New patterns of mutual assistance could lead to more voluntary and spontaneous forms of association than are now common in many time based service activities. As individual groups structure their combined efforts to build a shared continuum of activity, they gradually create new wealth which approximates what is often possible through more traditional forms of employment. In a time when advancing technology makes near future work potential less certain, people can breathe easier once viable replacements create new sources of normalcy and stability for all concerned.

Excess Regulation Reduces Diversity and Inclusion

How might we respond to excessive regulation - much of which stands in the way of personal potential and greater inclusiveness? Clearly, there are regulations on the books which not only reduce our most basic life options, but are also detrimental to long term economic growth and dynamism. Once regulatory environments begin to overwhelm and economic stagnation sets in, societies pay the price in lost market opportunities and a generalized loss of willingness to continue sharing in commonly held goals.

Some of the worst offenders in regulatory excess, are those which impose arbitrary limits on our own growth potential. In a services dominant economy, that translates into tangible losses of mutual assistance and support. If we can't help one another economically, what options are really left? Or how could we possibly know, the extent to which output loss in valuable skills instead stems from a supposed lack of personal ambition? Consider the many hurdles that people are expected to overcome, before they can make a concerted effort to reach out to others on meaningful yet economic terms. Not all those regulatory hurdles in particular, were put there in good faith.

We have yet to begin the crucial task of making it simpler, for people to create real value from their own personal attributes. Meanwhile, societies are seemingly caught in fruitless and demoralizing arguments, where some insist various groups lack the fortitude or ability to do what is "necessary" to achieve success in life. 

Yet much of our inability to transition to a better functioning knowledge based economy, is due to regulatory hurdles. These complicated rules of engagement make it exceedingly difficult for many people to fully engage with others in meaningful ways. Is this the best we can hope to achieve as a society? How many burdens could we be rid of, if we sought to eliminate regulations which get in the way of active and meaningful participation with others? What if we could be of use to others, without the small fortunes so often needed for full time work in a knowledge based economy? 

Chances are, our collective human capital has been limited by arbitrary regulations to a greater extent than is realized. If we continue allowing only the "best and brightest" in basic workplace responsibilities, we might be doomed to a future where diversity and inclusion are all but impossible. Let's do our best to ensure this doesn't happen. It's time to get rid of the arbitrary regulations which not only create immense holes in our social fabric, but leave many citizens unable to fulfill their own personal aspirations.

Economic Integration Could Help Unify Us

After all the post election chaos, finally some relief with a change of command in Washington. Still, I know this respite could be brief, and it hardly signifies a return to normalcy. As things stand, too many budgetary issues are coming to the fore, and recent decades of structural shifts have yet to be addressed. So while Biden is a calming presence (for some of us), he's in charge of a government which is ill prepared to meet the expectations of its citizens. Unfortunately, Biden's hopes for greater unity are mostly wishful thinking - at least for now. 

For that matter - as some noted regarding the heightened inauguration security - this was no peaceful transfer of power in an ordinary sense. It may be that political unity remains out of reach, until societies become more serious about economic integration for all citizens. Importantly, what's at stake in all this, isn't about continuous cycles of additional monetary redistribution. Rather, a broader framing for market orientation is called for - one which would ultimately make less monetary redistribution necessary in the first place. 

How to think about more concise forms of economic integration? For one, such strategies would focus on the economic potential of all human capital, regardless of formal educational levels. Once a wider range of time based mutual assistance becomes horizontally aligned, skilled services would no longer be limited to urban settings and limited budgetary directives. If we can establish applied knowledge networks in communities of all kinds, aggregate time value would become a more dynamic part of our economic destinies. If we truly believe in the power of free markets, then why not give ourselves greater ability to define useful time based consumption, in line with what others hope to provide. 

More viable platforms in human potential, could increase the supply and demand of useful economic time for all citizens. Eventually, the mutual reliance of shared time would lead to greater interdependence, thereby giving people new opportunities to trust one another and become civilized again. 

Only recall how the civil societies of recent centuries, were established through a more complete representation of specific resources. Toward this end, why not make time use potential as economically viable as other forms of commodity wealth. The resource representation which our tradable sectors made possible, led to extensive societal coordination, cohesion and voluntary cooperation. Let's hope that our non tradable sectors can now take a page from these earlier positive examples. Should we refuse to put additional and unnecessary burdens on resources that are already scarce, perhaps we have a chance to reduce the "uncivil wars" of our times.

What We Can Do, What We Can't Do

New years are a good time to reflect on life's possibilities, especially when it comes to societal progress. Nevertheless, how do we distinguish between realistic potential, versus what is essentially wishful thinking? For example, even though the world needs a lot more mutual respect and civility, desired outcomes such as these cannot be coerced. 

And while Adam Smith and many others celebrated the free markets which so contributed to civility in recent centuries, much of this fortuitous societal coordination takes place in tradable sector activity. Still, it's not unreasonable to ask: Could our non tradable sector markets also contribute to greater civility? How might they gain their own newfound freedoms? In particular, is it feasible for the resource of our scarce time, to garner more economic and societal value in the near future? Or will vital markets for time value, remain outside our realm of direct influence?

In the twentieth century, housing and time based services were regulated in ways which reduced the degree of autonomy and control individuals held over their own destinies - particularly those with substantial income limits. If millions were to regain control via new production and consumption potential, how much civility might we all regain in the process? At the very least, we still benefit from the civility which goes hand in hand with high levels of tradable sector resource coordination. And while we will never put a stop to what's bad in the world, we could still create more good, by allowing symmetrical (hence reciprocal) coordination of time via market tested means. Time arbitrage is one entry to this realm of possibility. It is a broad spectrum approach for improving personal autonomy and self worth, with potential to bring new hope to people from all walks of life.

With additional economic value for mutually coordinated time, millions more citizens would derive a greater sense of self worth. Consider one important reason why this matters. So much in the world which is unfortunate and destructive, includes the reality of poorly defined self worth. How can we expect people to be trustworthy or unfailingly good to others, when their time use potential lacks sufficient economic value to build a normal life? Granted, not everyone would personally benefit from stronger markets for time value. Just the same, millions more would finally learn to effectively negotiate with others for their wants and needs. I believe that gaining the chance to do so, would result in fortuitous circumstance whereby people are more inclined to be kind and civil. 

Even though the passing years have given me cause to excessively dwell on what can't be done, I still believe we are not helpless to act in positive ways. Clearly, we have reason to do so, when the evening news also dwells on what we seemingly cannot remedy. While there will always be instances when no one can decipher personal motivations for violence and hatred, there will still be positive ways to respond. Sure, some market efforts are going to fail, sometimes even miserably. But I continue to believe that viable and carefully representative market platforms are the best means we have, to build a better, more inclusive future. Plus, as Ricardo Hausmann recently noted in "The Missing Link in Economic Development":

If someone is not doing something that we as a society value it might be because they can't, not because they don't want to. This weakness in economics has far-reaching implications for our understanding of economic growth and development, which is fundamentally about the social accumulation of productive capabilities.

Markets should not be so willing to devolve, into a twisted rational of what societies supposedly can't do. When they become rigid and inflexible, does anyone really wonder why capitalism gets disparaged? Why not work to ensure greater freedom for our vital domestic markets, so they might better contribute to human civility and hope for the future? Why not 2021 as the perfect place to begin? Lets turn our non tradable sectors into realms where we regain hope for what we can do as a society, instead of remaining hopelessly divided over what we can't do.

Could Healthcare Providers Reduce Our Political Turmoil?

Perhaps there is a role for healthcare providers, in addressing our ever worsening political circumstance. For one thing, much of our political polarization is due to struggles between different groups for access to high skill services. Healthcare tops this list, and its present variance in job specification, is a prime example of the widening asymmetries between skills use potential for all concerned. The millions with limited skills on offer in our workplaces are finding it more difficult as time goes on, to contribute the taxes that - regardless of party - governments find necessary in a knowledge based economy. Yet the fiscal and monetary contributions of these millions are nonetheless sought, to compensate the skills of present day knowledge providers. All citizens need a chance to participate more fully, so as to maintain the viability and sustainability of coordination systems for knowledge based economies.

As societies become ever more dependent on applied knowledge for either employment potential or simply getting things done, too many find themselves limited in their ability to help themselves or assist others. How might we bring back greater employment symmetry for the skills capacity and employment potential of all citizens? Healthcare providers could be part of the answer, especially since when it comes to sought after time based services, one person's supply is another's demand. And markets for skilled time product are more scarce than they may appear, especially in communities and regions which have been left behind. 

Nevertheless, during election cycles, politicians often make promises about services generation for their constituents that they are in no position to fulfill. In the U.S. we face a constant bombardment of television ads where political candidates insist they are the ones who can best manage healthcare access. Supposedly it's all about preserving consumer demand for appropriate "in" groups, whereas if the "wrong" candidate happens to be elected, healthcare services will be reduced or even lost for one's constituents. For instance, one recently aired commercial sought to convince viewers that should the "wrong" candidate win, more rural hospitals would shut down! Seriously, could the politically "unfortunate" outcome prove responsible for that? For anyone who has closely observed healthcare realities for decades, this sort of nonsense can make one reluctant to even show up at the polls. Yet ads such as these tend to be only mildly divisive and hurtful, in contrast with other attacks.

Sometimes I wonder, what must healthcare providers think when exposed to such ridiculous goings on every two years at election time? Clearly, in many instances it is the healthcare profession which has the ability to change our supply side dilemma for services generation and the use of helpful knowledge, not pundits and politicians. This vital supply side matter should no longer be used as political fodder for division and societal turmoil. 

I continue to hope that healthcare providers will have the courage to step forward and create effective change in the years ahead. We can all do better than this as a society. It is still possible to restore hope for the future, by reaching out to one another for integrative solutions in workplace employment and collaboration with knowledge. Let's get started, and also hope there will not be further disruption and turmoil in our nation once the elections finally come to pass. For that matter, why not place the entire concept of healing into the broader societal arena where it is so desperately needed.

Notes on Retail as Part of a Two Sector Approach

Retail is somewhat different from other economic endeavour. Is it mostly about the provision of services or goods? Since both are involved in varying degrees, retail also functions as a vital bridge between tradable and non tradable sector activity. And even though services are involved, many aspects of retail still function as direct sources of wealth, so long as basic functions are internally reciprocated with no need for governmental redistribution or insurance reimbursements. 

Regular readers are familiar with my preference for a general equilibrium two sector approach, instead of the three sector model described by Wikipedia. Chances are the three sector model was especially helpful prior to the dominance of services activity in modern economies. However, by combining their primary (raw materials such as mining and agriculture) with their secondary (manufacture) sectors, I am able to keep both tradable sector areas in a logical position as traditional forms of originating wealth. Not only do these groups continue to create a traditional base for new community formation, they comprise the majority of tradable sector activity as a whole. 

On the other hand, services of all kinds have proven most likely to flourish once tradable sector activity (in the form of a traditional monetary prior) is established. For me, this is what made it seem so natural to frame non tradable sector services (along with some tradable services) as the secondary market activity which so contributes to today's economic complexity. Even though I advocate introducing services complexity as a knowledge prior for new community, this organizational capacity would still need to follow the tradable sector example of immediate resource reciprocity. 

A two sector general equilibrium approach is one of active wealth initiation and active wealth response. For example, the non tradable sector of real estate functions as a response, to local income origination. Another response is the extent to which a sustained level of infrastructure maintenance can be generated. In a two sector approach, services can be more readily observed insofar as their contributions to general equilibrium, and also how general equilibrium is ultimately affected by their demands. Consider also, how time as an economic input becomes a common thread for defining and categorizing services complexity. The recognition of time as economic unit is important, since its function as a services common denominator affects productivity aggregates at general equilibrium level. When we measure an entirety of time based services input in relation to output, and contrast this with the input to output ratios of other services capacity, we also gain real economy equivalence to quantitative aspects of monetary representation.

Tradable sectors as primary and non tradable sectors as secondary, is an easier way to conceptualize sectoral relations in quantitative and comparative terms. For non tradable sector activity in particular: What matters most for aggregate productivity potential, is the extent to which time based organizational capacity of final product, makes additional demands on general equilibrium capacity. To what extent is it feasible to create additional immediate reciprocity, to offset the delayed obligations of governmental budgets and other forms of financial product? Consider as well, however, that even though dependent (secondary) services rely on tax redistribution, this is still a relatively direct form of resource reciprocity by comparison with budgets which delay payment obligations for services until well into the future.

How does retail factor into these considerations? For one, the time requirements for retail services can be quite minimal, in relation to the final product of delivered goods and indeed services which require limited amounts of time commitment for final product. Even though some retail includes a considerable amount of focused attention or personal time commitment, it still functions as a growth multiplier in a monetary context, since the majority of its final product is not dependent on time. Indeed, this revenue generating capacity places retail in a broader services category which is also capable of multiplier activity, hence some economists have begun to categorize services according to their capacity for additional growth. 

While retail still includes time and place specific components, it is no longer as bound to these earlier requirements as is traditional housing, healthcare, and place based education. Consequently, retail has proven more amenable to extensive innovation, which in turn allows it to reflect supply and demand more effectively than housing, healthcare and education. Nevertheless, brick and mortar traditional retail - until recently - was still an extensive revenue source for municipalities. Alas, in a post pandemic economy, many municipalities will need to rethink their budgetary revenue strategies in the years ahead, in order to continue meeting their services and infrastructure maintenance needs.