Saturday, December 30, 2023

Wrap Up for December 2023

Until the Fed adopts a level target, mistakes such as the Great Recession and the more recent excessive inflationary level gain, are likely. 

"Many boomers will face tough choices as they age." Indeed, one of the more difficult aspects of the almost 10 percent level rise just in the last 4 years.

There were interesting business books this year. Material World in particular had positive reviews.

Why the robust holiday shopping season that defied economic anxieties?

Thinking about the use of one's time when it's not strictly in productivity terms.

How real is the decoupling between the U.S. and China?

Does it make sense to think of societal collapse as bad luck? Over the years I've emphasized how government redistribution to support ongoing knowledge use in society, is particularly fragile. Here, much more than luck is needed!

Sometimes when it comes to politics, the issues aren't as important as they seem.

Young voters aren't happy about their 2024 voting options, yet they are concerned regarding economic issues.

At $33.2 trillion, the U.S. holds more than one-third of the world's government debt.

The first roadway in the U.S. which will charge EVs.

There are medium-term challenges now faced by the ongoing energy transition.

Public services in the UK are being described as a "doom loop".

When is a monetary "puzzle" not actually a puzzle? Also, for once a soft landing is possible.

Is AI really on a path that will improve our financial realities? Plus, what might be expected regarding productivity potential in the near future? 

Central bankers have the tendency to celebrate too soon, when it comes to addressing inflationary episodes.

Speaking of premature celebrations, Why did public health officials archive the "excess deaths" webpage?

Has China's decline been exaggerated?

Francis Coppola reflects on current economic circumstance in the UK.

Digital tech activity is finally spreading out in the U.S.

A closer look at real interest rates in recent decades.

Christmas as an experiential journey, rather than an explicit goal.

Food supply adaptation might be the biggest challenge due to climate change.

One advantage for monetary policy over fiscal, is that monetary stimulus doesn't increase public debt.

What might we expect of healthcare spending in the near future?

Homelessness in the U.S. is now at a record level. And despite other factors, the cost of today's housing is the main cause. However, moral expectations also get in the way of housing abundance.

It turns out Americans are most satisfied with the care provided by their nurses.

Rising flood risk results in abandoned neighborhoods. Even as people continue moving to flood prone areas, they're becoming more aware of the risks involved.

Until now, the Suez Canal had actually been experiencing a "renaissance".

It shouldn't be necessary, to just say "delete fiscal" from the macro policy equation. Especially since the governmental action of advanced economies does not define general equilibrium circumstance, regardless of policy decisions. Why isn't it obvious by now, how human activity in aggregate creates the macro outcomes that matter? When governments insist on fiscal dominance, it shows their reluctance to take seriously their own citizens. 

While price increases finally slowed, their hoped for reversal never materialized as so many had hoped. The CPI has increased 19% since February 2020.

The Fed walks a narrow tightrope. Nevertheless, Some theories for the Fed's "soft landing".

There is real value in synchronized time.

Simple explanations for the Solow model. Despite the value of his exogenous growth model, total factor productivity remains a mystery. Nevertheless, for me it helps to think of TFP as what physical capital accomplishes alongside human capital. Plus, for the wealth created in a single year, there are upstream wealth claims on human capital which impact the output potential of knowledge economies. What if some central bankers might be afraid to adhere to appropriate nominal limits when knowledge based output is purposely withheld?

Tyler Cowen discusses great economists with David Beckworth. Scott Sumner responds.

Matthew Klein's year in review.

Shifting patterns for domestic migration. Migration from blue states to red states also impacts political outcomes.

At the very least, the NATO alliance has renewed purpose.