Wrap Up for August 2026

The Fed has ample ability to control inflation. However, it's the unpopular aspects of inflation that the Fed cannot control.

Which countries produce the most coffee?

Not many countries feel like they are doing really well.

Contrary to popular opinion, manufacturing workers have become more secure in their jobs. Nevertheless, regional impact remains a valid concern.

A visual for economic power transitions over the past 200 years.

Fiscal dominance is no longer a theoretical possibility.  Neil Irwin also provides details for the yen intervention.

There are few obvious answers for the lack of fluidity in today's low-hire, low-fire economy.

How much positive impact might the 21st Century Road to Housing Act have?

What happens to urban services and infrastructure, now that federal funds are starting to dry up?

Perhaps not surprisingly, trade-linked jobs that take place in offices, pay considerably more than those on factory floors. However, the difference isn't near as pronounced in richer parts of the world.

Even though AI is transformative technology, its growth potential is likely to remain modest, at least for now.

Fed discretion without a nominal anchor, is hardly the panacea that Warsh would like it to be. When the stock market and the bond market widely diverge, it is ultimately the bond market that prevails.

Perhaps the relevant question isn't so much how AI will automate work patterns. There are deeper issues at stake. How will AI change the production, circulation and validation of knowledge? AI will ultimately impact how organizations learn, remember, deliberate and decide.

Despite the bravado of Iran's hardliners, their economy continues to be threatened by the reimposed U.S. naval blockade.

Neil Irwin takes a closer look at Kevin Warsh's early days at the Fed. But, among other things, are Warsh's bots being given too much credit?

Conor Sen takes a look at the end of the housing recession.

Iran wants the war to end, but not on the terms demanded by the U.S.

Scott Sumner responds to the monetarist section in John Cochrane's recent online book, Inflation. 

There's been more progress in medicine than people often realize.

Few noticed what happened to real wages this time.

Too many young adults remain stuck at home and unable to afford housing.

The same institutions that are inclusive, still create divisions as well.

If no one is losing factory jobs to China, what is actually happening?

What really killed offshore wind?

Dependence in Chinese suppliers hasn't changed.

Vance-Bessent thinking bears an uncanny resemblance to MMT. Yet, some curses aren't that easy to undo.

Scott Sumner creates an imaginary dialogue with a "skeptic of monetarism".

Which countries have already passed peak population?

Will his Jackson Hole speech bring further clarity to his vision? "We're turning the first few pages of the fiscal dominance book."

Property rights also played a role in England's Industrial Revolution.

The Treasury's buyback announcement is only temporary relief.  These minimal gains were bought at a high cost.

There has been some progress getting oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Some weren't comfortable with the Fed holding rates in July.

Not everyone is happy identifying with either of the two major political parties.

Mortgage lending standards are simply too tight for home buyers.

Are data centers as bad as they've recently been made out to be?

Governments were caught quite unprepared for the normalization of bond markets.

The "debt scolds" were wrong in 2010. But does that mean they are wrong now?

High income countries are playing games when it comes to debt avoidance.

Diesel is where the energy shock was really happening.

What if poor U.S. leadership makes the rest of the world stronger? And, despite recent setbacks, the world is a lot more democratic than it was only a half century ago.

Cities need municipal wealth funds that states cannot raid.

How many adults live in the state where they were born?

To what extent is nominal GDP affecting today's fiscal position?

On Ukraine's Independence Day, a parade like no other.

"The Social Security trust fund deficit has more than doubled since last year."

The notion of "falling in line" could be one of the most lame negotiation tactics ever.

This bond market was hardly being a tough guy. All it was doing was clearing its throat a little, and Treasury wouldn't even tolerate that!

Canada is the first to absorb tariff pain. Will others follow?

"total world trade has moved sideways as a share of GDP"

Yet another federal debt warning from the GAO. Will anyone pay attention?

Fiscal dominance was on everyone's minds at Jackson Hole this year.