Sunday, March 31, 2024

Wrap Up for March 2024

Sometimes, informal aspects of time arbitrage suggest intentional markets in communities.

Transitory or permanent? Four years of data tell the story.

Has digitized medical information created more problems than it has solved?

There are rational ways to address the immigration crisis.

It's often no simple matter for states to use financial windfalls for their intended purpose.

At some point the $34 trillion debt burden could upset financial markets.

The "missing middle" is certainly in need of more housing. That said, more than traditional buildings will be required, if only because so much traditional financing that once catered to this market is gone. 

Noncompete agreements have also affected medicine.

Economists really don't have much influence over public policy. Indeed, the time horizons of economists are too long for politics.

The Fed's large balance sheet is more of a problem than some realize.

AI is already helping cardiac patients.

Near future energy needs may end up partially unmet, due to environmental NIMBYs.

Vienna  learned a viable response to homelessness, years ago.

It's going to take more than rental supply gains to address affordability.

India has the most confidence in the global economy.

The density of Japanese cities makes them quite livable.

Basic income advocates tend to forget how important work actually is for self respect.

We are living in an exponential age.

Biden is (belatedly) concerned about housing policy.

"Weather forecasting has come a long way."

The dollar still provides ample benefits as the world's reserve currency.

Some of the recent economic strength could be attributed to immigration.

Despite Powell's claim, a changed insurance landscape is a poor (supply side) reason to maintain higher inflation levels. In order to achieve more accurate and stable nominal representation, the Fed should acknowledge changed insurance realities now, rather than allowing them to continue affecting inflation.

The "jagged frontier" of generative AI performance.

What stands in the way of energy abundance?

"How do people across the world spend their time?"

Were it not for the owner equivalent rent, the economy appears close to equilibrium. Alas, I'm concerned it's not close enough!

Rural hospitals are facing a difficult choice when they can't afford both: emergency departments, or hospital beds?

End times, maybe?

Single room occupancy dwellings could provide one solution to homelessness.

"Prolonged scarcity is dangerous territory."

The deficit in plumbers is only growing wider.

Real estate for buyers is likely about to become more automated.

What affects recessions that have become less severe over time?

Heating could become the biggest household energy challenge.

Younger people increasingly have the weight of the world on their shoulders.

Some considerations for place-based policies. 

Brookings explains the basics of Medicare.

"economists make a big mistake when they dismiss the complaints of the public with regards to the measurement of inflation." Scott Sumner responds.  To me, it seems asset valuations matter in equilibrium due to their impact on many operational costs. For example, housing and rental valuations affect what employers need to pay their employees, which in turn affects whether companies and their employees can remain in given environments.

Training is a vital link between new technology and (consequent) improved productivity. However it's not always easy for companies to pay for the necessary skills involved. Previously I've advocated for time arbitrage to help with skills gaps in product installation and maintenance at local levels. Indeed, providing tech skills that are locally maintained, could make it easier for companies to find ready markets for their product. 

How are nursing homes able to hide so much of their profits? I had certainly been fooled, since I thought a lot of nursing homes struggled to even stay in business.

An apt explanation why the economy is difficult for some right now, but not as much for others.

There's a place in the world for slow writers.

There's good reason why "friends are always right".

Globally, plastic recycling rates are still far too slow. That's a shame, especially since plastics hold such potential for affordable housing. For that matter, pull apart plastic housing components could be made flood resistant. Ultimately, that could help reduce today's rising home insurance rates.

"Ten economic facts about rental housing." And, Timothy Taylor offers highlights from the Brookings report.

The long run neutrality of money still matters.

Why don't rising borrowing costs contribute to inflation?

Perhaps not so surprising that manufacturing is still China's favorite economic activity.

Three reasons could explain why we haven't witnessed a recession recently.

Compared to other countries, our support for climate change policies is somewhat limited.

Some visuals and facts re multigenerational households.

Debt related drivers license suspensions aren't exactly common sense.

Inflation really rubs people the wrong way.

Economic growth occurs when technology "moves into widespread use".

Two competing worldviews are close to evenly divided.

There is no moral high ground for CO2 emissions.

What caused the world to change so much in the 2010s?

Some are thinking twice about living in Florida.

It's difficult to realize how different life really was before the World Wars.

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Wrap Up for February 2024

Lack of home ownership access is worse than we thought.

Even though many don't feel safe, violent crime is starting to drop.

Gauti Eggertsson talks monetary policy and the post-pandemic inflation surge with David Beckworth. Scott Sumner responds.

The U.S. needs for its allies to be stronger, not weaker.

Will EV battery swapping become an option for the U.S.?

Hannah Ritchie on future global energy demand.

Today's population growth is due to people living longer. 

A looming global trade war will be fought with (more) tariffs.

Some reasons why innovation in building materials has been difficult.

There has been an "accidental flirtation" with NGDP targeting.

"The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory"

Thankfully, this innovation in blood testing is real.

Climate change as a factor in societal collapse.

I believe this kind of recycling has tremendous potential for our housing access problem.

Perhaps industrialization shouldn't be discounted just yet. Noah Smith also references a relevant and important paper, "Local Multipliers" by Enrico Moretti.

What makes a state monopoly of money printing so durable?

Some are more likely to be swayed by misinformation than others.

At the very least, lessons could be targeted specifically to what students already know.

Everyone has been too complacent about Social Security.

What if high-interest policy is a form of fiscal stimulus?

A look at how government budgetary obligations are presently changing. And, our current level of debt was nonetheless a predictable crisis.

Mark Koyama talks with David Beckworth about historical origins for economic growth.

When the real America wrongly believes it is full, will new "Americas" rise to take its place?

For Putin, Poland is even more important than Ukraine.

The Senate has changed.

Even though Germany is vulnerable, it is hardly alone.

"How Biden botched the border"

This is an opportune moment to bring forward tax depreciation schedules (again) for multifamily housing.

Some chart visuals for climate change.

When our government no longer has enough money for Medicare revenue requirements, yet hospitals no longer have enough money to stay open without governmental help, it's time to look for solutions beyond those that are strictly monetary.

How do wages affect inflation?

Why is the work week shrinking?

Not all aspects of vital services are captured by GDP. Also, "Care Provision and the Boundaries of Production"

What might happen if a U.S. government default causes the loss of safe asset status?

Some fiscal policy projections for the next three decades.

More cities are starting to consider broader zoning for housing options.

People learn more from those who they readily relate to.

Ties between the U.S. and Europe remain closer than some realize.

Middle class expectations have been dealt a financial blow in recent years.

Which world leaders have the highest approval ratings?

Brian Potter explains how he prepares his posts for publication.

Without immigration, the U.S. population would soon decline.

What trade jobs are most in demand?

Noah Smith was disappointed in the main premise of Power and Progress.

Navalny's death is Russia's dark turning point.

China's trade advantages continue to be a problem for the West.

Diners would like restaurants to stay the same, but that's no longer possible.

What is the difference between being nice and being kind?

Don't say we weren't warned.

The NIMBYism of high skill areas also provides rationale for promoting economic development in lower skill areas.

Carola Binder's new book, Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy , will be released on May 21, 2024.

What is the American left really about?

At the very least, consumers have their own ways of dealing with inflation.

Russ Roberts and Charles Duhigg on the art of conversation.

A closer look at how Democrats lost voters with relatively less education.

Alexei Navalny as both a warning and a beacon.

Perhaps Medicare and Medicaid plan to use these new access fees for their funding shortfalls! Here are their policy changes. Nevertheless, some continue to dream of knowledge access possibilities in anti-rival forms. For me the dream is still time arbitrage for local healthcare education and access, not to mention (widely shared) knowledge preservation.

Robin Brooks is now working with Brookings.

"Britain's interwar apartment boom"

Fascism has also had its share of military failures.

How might AI help rebuild the middle classes?

Services were a big contributor to the hot January CPI number. Plus, why the variance between rent and home ownership is so important,

Some relative changes in prosperity around the country.

Suggestions for overcoming K-12 student learning losses.

In 2022, 1 in 7 cars sold around the world were electric.

Bank balance sheets are no longer a prominent part of credit intermediation.

A senior home close to Vienna has a microbrewery where its residents can work.

Inflation projections by country for the coming year.

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Wrap Up for January 2024

Many don't realize how high property tax burdens have actually been in Texas.

People are still intrigued by the idea of a Gesellian economy.

When interest rates are the main Fed tool (rather than NGDP), the seemingly simple logic of a "soft landing" becomes more difficult. Wage inflation also has not come down enough for a soft landing to be realistic at this point. And, Scott Sumner highlights some of "the best" money macro economists.

What will be the main economic stories of 2024? However, after the next 10 months, all bets are off. 

Arpit Gupta discusses sectoral factors which continue to affect post-pandemic inflation. 

For healthcare, the U.S. leads in both price and quantity rankings.

Some government created fiscal commissions have been more successful than others. What would a new fiscal commission seek to achieve?

It's not clear which restrictions actually stand in the way of greater manufactured home construction.

A closer look at some disinflationary trends.

Recent developments in satellite imagery, make it possible to show the extent of human activity taking place at sea.

Despite disinflationary gains, prices haven't stopped rising in Europe.

Michael Easter discusses his book Scarcity Brain with Russ Roberts.

What might an inspiring 21st century department store look like?

Some 2023 highlights and looking ahead, from Macro Musings.

2023 certainly turned out different than some expected.

Are people starting to lose interest in an economic education?

Robert Solow made a profound contribution to economic growth.

There's been a shift away from the culture of progress in the West.

Brink Lindsey highlights the problem of fertility collapse.

High income levels tend to pay the lowest local and state level taxes.

Rising rents and evictions also impact lifespan and mortality rates.

How to think about inequality? It depends on one's research sources. 

In order for prophecy to actually be worthwhile, it needs to spell out the future in concrete and specific terms, so that adaptation is feasible. 

A visual for "Top global risks in 2024".  Brookings notes five risks. Global commerce is also fragile.

Asbestos actually had beneficial qualities. But the dangers were higher than anyone initially realized.

Is "consumption-led growth" really the best way to describe what an economy may need?

Peter Ireland has a new paper on money growth and inflation.

Republicans, rural residents, renters, women, and singles are the ones who don't feel particularly good about the economy. And as Neil Irwin notes, it's the higher price level that bothers people most. Americans think their leaders don't care.

In recent years, hospital debt obligations have increased for people with health insurance.

There's potential for innovation in insulin production.

"Did the West get rich from imperialism?"

It's already existing student debt obligations, not to mention child care costs, which make home ownership so difficult for young adults.

The U.K. has struggled more recently than many nations.

Perceptions of the U.S. government, have taken a turn for the worse.

Adam Ozimek highlights the challenges of an aging population.

Davos notes that the debt problem is global this time.

The relative price of goods also still remains above trend. 

How would a second Trump presidency compare to the first, in terms of healthcare?

Much about inequality in the U.S. really comes down to the hidden cost of healthcare insurance.

J.W. Mason explains "13 Ways of Looking at Money".

U.S. industrial policy still leaves a lot to be desired.

U.S. citizens remain too reliant on (unpaid) family members for long term care of the elderly.

"Between 1982 and 1987, half of US machine tool firms closed their doors."

Which school investments increase local property values? It depends.

The tightening mechanism worked better via corporate channels than some may have expected.

Despite the negative supply shocks, there have been positive ones as well.

"Quiet Quitting the War on Drugs"

Even Yimbys aren't always on board with new cities that are a fresh start, rather than adaptations for already existing ones. Noah Smith has a much more positive take. 

A different kind of politico-military strategy.

"The real problem is the debt time bomb." It still doesn't seem like anyone is serious about dealing with this. I believe that structural solutions beyond money are necessary to turn things around. But people have yet to consider such a route, let alone act on it.

How did the measurement of aggregate demand become so confusing?

I'd note that time banks could at least function as a simple component of time arbitrage. 

Political pressure has been a problem for inflation.

Some structural accounting for markups now occurring in services rather than goods.

The soft landing? Or perhaps no landing at all.

Kevin Erdmann is in favour of a 5 percent NGDP growth trend.

Jonathon Hazell on Phillips Curves, Wage Rigidity, and How to Measure R-Star" Plus, Scott Sumner responds.

Which states are the most racially diverse?

Aggregate demand or NGDP isn't important in the long run, but it's the most important variable in the short run. And anyone who takes it seriously has a useful context for gradualism as well.

"Real residential investment is half of what it commonly was in the past, relative to other real production."

Is disinflation over?

"the cost of mortgage origination has basically never been higher." FinTech hasn't really delivered the market improvements that seemed possible.

Public health is in need of a new approach.

There are positive global implications for local 3D printing with recycled materials, for construction. "The goal of this research is to create a system for constructing homes that alleviates strains on the supply chain and addresses labor shortages, while providing economical and sustainable housing."

A positive story in renewed community connections.

Some thoughtful explanations for recent world conflicts.

Whatever happened to the retail "apocalypse"?

It's been quite a struggle for aircraft manufacturers.