Thursday, March 31, 2022

Wrap Up for March 2022

How will China face up to its many pressures? Indeed, it is at a crossroads.

What broke the nickel market on March 8th?

Job loss is experienced differently (less severely) by those holding bachelor's degrees.

How might the Fed best respond to supply side inflation? Housing is another thorny supply side problem.

Neon is part of a fragile supply chain.

"Washington ignored years of signals that the South's health care system was crumbling. When the pandemic began, it was too late to rebuild."

The chilling prospect of chemical weapons.

Oil producers now face considerable constraints. And, "In four of the past ten years, the oil industry lost money."

Can the Fed make a soft landing in heavy weather? "In fact the Fed is not reconciled with itself."

There are big changes in medical debt credit reporting.

What is happening to Ukrainian currency?

Price stability is especially important for public debt.

Housing suggestions from the CEO of Habitat for Humanity International.

Many laws adopted before the war were already killing economic growth possibilities in Russia.

Noah Smith is hopeful for Ukraine's future.

The Fed didn't stay with FAIT very long at all. And, why have inflation expectations been rising instead of falling?

Construction startups have recently gained traction.

Brian Albrecht takes a look at human capital and intangible capital.

When it comes to population density, aesthetics actually isn't the main point.

What are China's economic options for continued prosperity?

Defending intergenerational equity.

"Demand destruction" is also another way to say "hunger".

In Austria, the "right to repair" has gotten a boost.

NPR explains the home shortage.

Despite our current supply side woes, "100% of excessive inflation is due to bad monetary policy". Timothy Taylor also offers highlights from the relevant Larry Summers interview with Ezra Klein.

China may be better prepared for further losses of globalization, than the West.

Has the climate movement lost its way? Likewise for globalization.

In praise of maintenance.

"As Russia sees tech brain drain, other countries hope to gain"

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Our Meritocratic Knowledge Systems Are Quite Fragile

War can create many problems, and this time it includes difficulties for supply side circumstance, central bankers, and monetary policy. Some are also debating (although they are divided) how Putin's actions will ultimately affect global currency patterns. I'd suggest that while no one knows how long global dollar dominance could last, this is still an opportune moment for special interest groups to dial back on their dependence of global financial flows for monetary compensation. Especially since this decades long global positioning has added to income inequalities, many of which stem from administrative privilege. In particular, inequality in the U.S. is largely due to tax dependent secondary markets (and their associated housing valuations) where knowledge and skill are essential. 

Meritocratic organizational patterns in dependent markets have become like an endangered species, by aligning too closely with other aspects of elite tendencies (both left and right leaning) in advanced economies. Consider how this matters, for political opponents are now so opposed to each another that both sides are losing the ability to effectively function. This really matters for merit based organization, once profit becomes defined as the strongest limits possible to total applied knowledge participation. Even though the patterns we observe are more often knowledge use losses in rural areas, this is nevertheless symptomatic of continued losses for valuable skills in general, in all of society.

For decades we have taken administrative dominance for granted in the compensation of meritocratic time based knowledge. But unfortunately, administrative capture of monetary value for time based skill sets, creates extensive participation limits in terms of both supply and demand. When price making is used in excess of price taking in equilibrium conditions, the result is inevitably reduced societal coordination patterns (hence loss of mutual trust) for knowledge use. Indeed, our housing asset markets closely represent the pinnacle of what people hope to achieve in monetary compensation for knowledge and skill, instead of the compensation many citizens actually receive. 

The supply side conditions which allowed this circumstance have only been exacerbated since the turn of the 21st century. Small wonder that our educational and healthcare institutions now experience problems at systemic levels with few solutions on offer. Yet applied skill losses tend to occur in ways that aren't necessarily evident, such as in U.S. justice scenarios which greatly impact both lower and middle income levels. For that matter, much of the cultural resistance to vaccines took place in "red" states where rural areas have already long since lost their hospitals and other local healthcare settings.

Should we finally reform knowledge centered citizen participation, recall as well, how closely linked these time based services are with housing. States such as Texas (where I live) have been heavily dependent on property taxes to fund the services citizens rely on, for instance. There are other important economic connections between housing and services as well. A prime example is how the Fed frames housing as a transmission mechanism for monetary policy, which in turn affects the money available for services in given time periods. 

Hence when we highlight possibilities for greater housing affordability, it helps to remember that services access and participation would be closely connected to these efforts. Since services values are reflective of housing, only recall that good deflation in housing would require good deflation in time based services costs. This time based adaptation of local property taxes would only work for citizens if they can actually count on lower mutual time costs for group coordination. In many earlier posts I advocated for time as a formal economic unit. Fortunately, we could design means to connect economic time value to originating wealth or monetary value, via local building patterns for participating groups. I continue to hope that production and ownership reform efforts such as these, might be considered in the near future.

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Mid Month Highlights in the Ides of March

Emily Hamilton discusses the consequences of restricted housing with David Beckworth.

What makes intangible capital different? (Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake) Also, Diane Coyle reviews their latest book. 

Will $100 oil encourage oil companies to add drilling capacity?

China is also easing restrictions on Russian wheat.

Fiona Hill explains Putin.

Dollar mortgage holders in Russia are in quite a bind.

"The oil lobby has fought against nuclear for years". Still, both war and climate goals create renewed impetus for nuclear power. 

Alan Cole gives five reasons why the sanctions are so effective.

Only one fifth of high school students complete college courses which lead to fully relevant employment.

Ukraine has been "a key producer of wiring harnesses that hold the electronic cables within a car."

"Nature is a harsh taskmaster, but so, it seems, is human culture."

War includes lessons that no one expected.

"What we know so far" (Duncan Weldon on the war) Part 1 and Part 2.

Popular towns have had to become quite creative in finding ways for their workers to afford housing.

How will Ukraine's planting seasons be affected this year?

Matthew Klein discusses the economic fallout of the war with David Beckworth.

Covid led to an unprecedented increase in demand for assistance with mental health.

Noah Smith takes a closer look at sanctions on Russia imposed the first week of March.

Is Putin's war affecting dollar dominance?

This war has been going on longer than we realized.

Often, especially in its earlier stages, dementia need not mean a complete loss of personal responsibility or autonomy.

Electric vehicle makers will have to adapt. And, "battery production and integration is a big ship for automakers to turn around."

"Putin's days are numbered."

To what extent does war seem irrational?

on "the troubled birth of modern Ukraine"

The looming shortage for semiconductor grade neon.

Rising inflation is going to be with us for a while.

Automakers have begun directly investing in mines for future supply side stability.

Is the Fed able to steer its way to a soft landing? But new COVID lockdowns in Shenzhen will only create additional problems.

An optimistic take on Ukraine. Nevertheless, a realistic take as well.