Even though time arbitrage would be a complex undertaking (particularly for large scale versions), today's time based services are nevertheless being called into question, as post Covid realities gradually emerge. Plus there's plenty of unknowns in time based service markets which represent a wide range of knowledge, skill, and yes, physical activities as well. How will societies ultimately respond?
While problems were already evident in secondary markets such as healthcare before the pandemic, there's also recent troubles for time based services that are directly linked to originating (primary market) wealth. For instance, both manufacturers and home improvement retailers have limited incentive to compensate the time based labour involved in installations and repairs at private residences. Worse, these resulting service labour shortages are amplified by resistance among service workers who were never really keen on commuting to outlying areas in the first place! Indeed, a CEO for Whirlpool expressed concern that labour shortages may in fact be structural. Likewise, Zillow, recently had to stop purchasing homes when it struggled to secure sufficient timely labour in order to resell at a profit.
More specifically, what can be done at local levels, should time centered services become increasingly difficult to procure from a distance? Just as time arbitrage could function as a primary market substitute for some of today's secondary markets in knowledge and skill, it could also shore up missing services associated with traditional primary markets. In many instances, time arbitrage could benefit coordination patterns in local services where strength and physical stamina may be just as important as knowledge and skill. Since many manufacturers and retailers have become compromised in terms of services employment potential, they could shift towards establishing commodity and goods specific educational support for their product to local community levels. Doing so would also allow local citizens to more meaningfully incorporate home renovation and appliance maintenance needs in their (time symmetric) educational settings Even though local citizens would not be employed by home improvement manufacturers and retailers, they still have incentive to work with these firms for an outcome that would help both groups. Best, a hub and spoke (or city to country) educational approach could help recreate formal services economies where they are most needed.
Better use of coordinated time symmetry could eventually help restore structural balance to economic conditions in general. Chances are, efforts to bring time value to the table for market outcomes, would result in greater general equilibrium representation for direct forms of wealth creation than is presently the case. After all, there's a good chance that 80 percent monetary representation for services was too much to begin with, to maintain long term economic stability. Only consider the prominent example of structural imbalance in our healthcare knowledge use patterns. Even Noah Smith recently challenged "shoveling money at overpriced service industries", hence has become one of many who wonder why governments continue to subsidize vital services purposely made scarce in the twentieth century.
Long term economic stability may well depend on whether societies are able to make time value a more important component of formal economic activity. All the more so, since many communities already struggle to provide the kinds of local services which are so beneficial for citizen outcomes. When it comes to general equilibrium dynamics, time arbitrage might at least be able to reduce the discrepancy between monetary representation for services versus traditional wealth sources, to 70 percent versus 30 percent.
A more reasonable sectoral balance could improve the long term odds of good economic complexity in our formal activities. One way to think about the processes involved, is how such efforts might ensure reliable forms of societal coordination to transfer knowledge and skill which can be understood by most citizens. Otherwise - if and when service markets become distorted - people understandably react with DIY measures instead of - for example - benefiting from healthcare services provided by others. Granted, DIY is often the most practical strategy. But done in excess, extreme self reliance might put the long term preservation and transfer of knowledge use through society, in doubt. And should too many of us end up resorting to DIY, when might the process eventually evolve into a tipping point of informal economic activity, even in places where it was never expected? Alas, informal economies have their problems (such as oppressive amounts of gang activity) and often prove difficult to change once entrenched. If we can avoid it, let's just not go there. Hopefully, societies will learn to better coordinate services so that knowledge and skill can be preserved, hence remain part of our formal economies in the foreseeable future.
No comments:
Post a Comment