Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Wrap Up for November 2022

David Beckworth explains inflation and the monetary targeting approach that could make it easier to manage.

Workplace productivity is more of an issue in times of high inflation.

"Selection, Patience and the Interest Rate"

A tiny home village now helps ease homelessness in Austin.

Peter Ganong on economic dynamism and resiliency (with David Beckworth)

First, curb inflation, then focus on other challenges.

"How quickly will wage growth slow?"

Seven monetary policy mistakes in 2021-2022.

Inflation has been particularly hard on real wages.

Short-term interest rates will likely remain high for several years. Yet monetary policy is still more loose than it may seem.

Water system management will become increasingly important in the years to come.

"Men are struggling."  Especially since the nature of work has dramatically changed.

"Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt" (Ricardo Reis)

Texas needs to stabilize its rural communities.

Macroeconomics is still quite young.

Americans increasingly live in multigenerational households.

Some tiny homes are particularly built with flexibility in mind.

A "soft landing" remains possible.

A visual chart of healthcare spending and life expectancy by country.

Even though people in the U.S. benefit from fixed 30 year mortgages, this contributes to global monetary tightening right now. My thought: Since housing is such a strong transmission mechanism, affordable non traditional housing could actually function as a plus at a global economic level.

Silicon Valley is changing.

Despite rising nominal rates, the real interest rate is still low by comparison.

Why are there so many employment discrepancies?

Which hospitals are more transparent with their prices?

A Brad Delong draft for grand narratives.

Low income groups often need to move elsewhere once housing prices rise.

Life satisfaction changes dramatically with age.

A slowing in household formation will affect housing costs.

Somehow the Phillips Curve has reemerged as a policy guide.

How might FAIT be improved?

"Why Isn't the Whole World Rich?"

Many doctors remain unwilling to work in rural areas.

Real wage growth is down alongside productivity.

Low income students tend towards more practical forms of education.

Some charted international income distributions.

Current inflation specifics for holiday retail.

When negative supply shocks trigger output losses, how does this affect monetary policy?

More GenX and Boomers live alone, if only today's housing could reflect this.

It's encouraging to come across an argument for local community based care in mental issues. Indeed, "task-shifting" or "task-sharing are essentially examples of time arbitrage.

Some research re the city to government connection.

Land value differences in U.S. states.

Baby boomers affect general equilibrium conditions as they move through life stages.

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Incentives Matter for Time Arbitrage Potential

An important aspect of time arbitrage is the need to secure time based services, starting with those which aren't exactly top career choices. Plus, these tend to be poorly paid, particularly services for elderly assistance. And since people who work for the elderly may struggle with their own financial responsibilities, they aren't always trustworthy and reliable for the people most dependent on their care. 

Granted, it can seem the obvious solution is to ensure adequate pay for all employees, whatever job one happens to be responsible for! Unfortunately, societies have shown time and again that the notion of "livable wages" for all, isn't feasible, despite the tremendous need. My regular readers know that the fact money will continue to be insufficient incentive for such work, serves as a starting point for my own suggestions regarding markets for time value.

If we can't create markets which specifically reward time value, there may ultimately be cultural ramifications. For instance, as the costs of traditional healthcare and nursing homes continue to rise, societal expectations would increase for individuals to make undue sacrifices for their own family members. While it's understandable that existing institutions are less willing (or able) now to pay for time intensive services, we need new institutions which can do so in their stead.

When it comes to incentives for time based markets, one thing to consider is the need for autonomy, and how it revolves around ideas of fairness associated with shared responsibilities. Still, when we purposely spend time with others, those interactions often benefit from the undivided attention of both individuals involved. Indeed, this undivided attention can often be critical to services outcomes. 

Yet attention to details with its associated time related costs, is often more costly than what existing institutions can still provide. When institutions are willing to pay well for time based services, they may expect high skill knowledge providers to commit to such a degree, that burnout becomes inevitable. Even so, excessive time commitments can be burdensome whether one engages in simple skill sets or high skill activities. In time arbitrage, a full range of skill levels would be apportioned so as not to create undue time commitment burdens. A fuller sharing for all skill levels, could also bring respect to work which is now almost treated as a form of social "punishment" for those who struggle with traditional education. 

Here are just a few of the links I've come across lately which highlight the need for a better marketplace for time value. Occasionally I find myself overwhelmed at the extent of time based services needs which simply aren't being met at any skill level. Alas, as a society we have scarcely begun to address these concerns. How could anyone claim real economic progress, if societies keep trying to move forward without better means of coordination for applied knowledge and time based endeavour in general? The sooner we face the fact that money alone cannot accomplish these vital tasks, the sooner we can begin to create new free markets in time value.

How to think about better aligned incentives in this regard? We share a number of basic time commitment priorities in our lives which warrant consideration. One way to think about the processes involved is this: What services are specific individuals willing and capable of providing, so long as doing so doesn't interfere with or somehow impose on the other important facets of our lives? Recall that what anyone might be tolerant of providing in an hours time, is not the same thing as activities one prefers on a more regular basis. Yet markets which rely solely on monetary incentives, don't distinguish well for these differences in relative time preferences.  

More specifically, time arbitrage could take place in several ways. The basic form would be agreed upon time share agreements between two individuals. These commitments would  occur as close to the same time frame as possible. That said, it would not always be possible to benefit from time arbitrage on these terms. Fortunately there are also incentives that would compel individuals to commit time, for which one would hope to benefit at some point in the future.

For one, there are moments of spontaneity, in other words those occasions when people do something for others "just because". One way to think about this is "paying it forward", only this approach tends more toward monetary gifting than services. However, the voluntary actions of time arbitrage would be recorded in the same manner as other aspects of time arbitrage into a broader framework. In so doing, the initial voluntary action functions as partial economic unit which turns into a completed exchange (and its associated full economic value) once the provider accepts a voluntary action from someone which they don't need to reciprocate.  

Another important economic incentive is the natural concern for our own well being, should we become temporarily or even permanently dependent on others in some capacity. This of course also ties back to the concerns of elderly citizens mentioned above. Toward this end, time arbitrage functions as a form of social time based insurance. It's an example of partial matches we can initiate in the here and now which might not be reciprocated for a long time. Such matches could prove especially helpful during periods when we fall short on more immediate time matches with others, for instance. What particularly distinguishes social insurance from monetary insurance is its direct nature, in terms of mirroring the kinds of attention we would seek from others should we become more dependent on them. One way to broaden the potential of time arbitrage for purposes of social insurance, is to seek matches not just for one's personal needs, but also in terms of home maintenance and/or care for family members. 

There's one more consideration as well. When it comes to personal incentives, what are our greater aspirations in life? How might those aspirations change over time? Local community coordination would not be complete, if participating groups didn't make room for everyone to discover challenging work which suits their own motivations and long term goals. Recall as well, how this is the part of time arbitrage which has the potential to contribute to applied knowledge in its more complex forms. What's different in this regard, is the time arbitrage approach to knowledge sharing.