Sunday, May 31, 2026

Wrap Up for May 2026

Ryan Avent talks with Brink Lindsey about the power of faith and culture.

American dads have changed considerably since the fifties.

The economic blockade campaign is about more than just Iran.

What does access for a new retirement plan, consist of? 

Part of what makes life more expensive now in the U.S. is a weaker dollar.

Electricity supply is rising, as demand rises even faster. Texas is rising to the challenge, but more rapid energy build out is needed across the U.S.

Aircrafts are a prominent export in multiple states.

A 100% debt-to-GDP level isn't necessarily a deal breaker. But the way a debt trajectory actually rises, can be.

"Most good ideas are born as twins."

Robin Brooks explains why the blockade is working.

Hannah Ritchie takes a closer look at near future AI electricity demand.

When it comes to home affordability, income levels matter. (A visual)

Tautologies are more useful than they are often given credit for.

Embodied human labour is a lot more complex than what AI is actually performing. "When a dollar is saved, where is it redirected?"

Will the nominal anchor continue to hold?

Even though the labour market is stabilising, it is doing so with higher prices.

Some charts which illustrate how debt is becoming a global problem.

Minnesota has the highest home ownership rates for young adults.

Most countries remain sold on free trade, even if the U.S. no longer is. However, economists were right about the economic pain the tariffs would cause.

What might the changing California job market imply for the rest of the country?

It hasn't been long since pancreatic cancer was practically a death sentence, but much has changed.

In war, a nation's ability to survive shouldn't be confused with victory. Iran isn't quite as strong as some like to imagine.

Betting on future risks has its useful qualities, but doing so can also corrupt.

The 21st century is also the time of the "Great Forgetting".

Saying goodbye to a dependable and trustworthy Fed chair.

Tariffs haven't helped the U.S. economically. And trading partners have dramatically changed in the past 25 years.

Neil Irwin reflects on Jerome Powell's chairmanship.

Trump and Xi went into the summit with the same modest expectations.

What if an AI bust wouldn't really hurt that much?

"The number of children on the planet has been going down since around 2012. It's just that their grandparents have not died yet."

History will likely be kind to Jerome Powell.

China has retained a longer than expected lock on low-skilled goods production, to the detriment of emerging economies.

A visual for world fertility rates.

Have Republicans basically given up on free markets?

Pediatric surgeons have the highest wages.

One can only hope that data centers will take a strong interest in water recycling. After all, they are being built in some places where water is already in short supply.

Is vicemaxxing the new normal?

The Secular Stagnation theory turned out to be not so compelling.

There's a price for exorbitant privilege that is seldom considered.

A visual for the world's largest food exporters.

The Fed has not been offsetting excess fiscal demand.

Both Medicare and Medicaid have become reliant on private health insurance.

Hiring demand really depends on one's home state.

Independent bookstores are actually doing better than many realize.

For the Fed, it's actually easier to move the road than to steer the car. Even so, "moving the road" doesn't always guarantee a positive outcome.

A visual for foreign investment in 100 nations.

Not all forms of attention are the same, and the differences are important.

Services are almost half the value of U.S. exports, but that important factor has been completely missed in Trump's tariff calculations.

In the past ten years anger has been on the rise.

It turns out that once immigration stalls, something odd occurs: Just because job numbers turn negative doesn't necessarily mean a downturn is underway.

What point was there in putting tariffs on musical instruments, when few were being made in the U.S. to begin with? "Imports of musical instruments are cratering."

Which states have experienced the most population growth since 1970?

Paul Krugman answers his critics concerning discussions about standards of living in Europe and the U.S.

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Wrap Up for April 2026

The chickens are coming home to roost for the U.S. debt trajectory

India's services sector continues to be a strong part of its economy.

When the largest importer decided to weaponize imports, the largest exporter responded  by weaponizing exports. Yet other countries decided not to participate in the trade war.

NAFTA vulnerability was greatest in eastern portions of the U.S.

Progress in battery storage is one of the good news stories of our times.

AI may change what is deemed most useful and valuable in knowledge at a fundamental level.

Even EV production is getting stuck at the Strait of Hormuz.






















How does war compare to other macroeconomic impacts? It is often the strongest and the most difficult to manage.































Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Wrap Up for March 2026

Axios provides details for the lead up to the Iran war.

Killing El Mencho wasn't as advantageous as it may have seemed.

A focus on the opening move over Tehran.

"Right to Build" could conceptually help cut through the problems of affordable housing. 

The "disappearing secretary" gives important clues about what AI is likely to do. Secretarial job losses didn't get the attention they deserved when they happened. I'm glad that's finally changed.

Why would Iran decide to use tactics that could end up framing it as the common enemy? Also, his hopes for an Abrahamic alliance.

What is it really like to be a parent?

How effective are fiscal rules for emerging market economies?

China's electricity advantage isn't quite as straightforward as it may seem.

It's important to not reason from a quantity change in housing.

Young workers of all educational levels are being left behind in the job market, and this is still a mystery.

There were considerable efforts to innovate building construction in the 1970s which ultimately failed.

A deeper aspect of what Operation Epic Fury may have been about.

When it comes to career opportunities, older workers have pulled ahead of younger workers.

Are others trustworthy and basically moral? Alas, people in the U.S. aren't so sure.

A visual for oil supply choke points around the world.

Sometimes, panic is actually what's needed to get things done.

How will the Fed respond to a supply side oil shock this time?

Data centers place heavy demands on local community resources, so it greatly matters how their benefits and risks are allocated. 

Mosquitoes and snakes account for the most deaths by far.

On March 9 Trump said the war would be over quickly. But Iran is thinking differently and the war has already expanded. Also, a missed opportunity seven months earlier.

The gender gap in education is stronger where economies are struggling.

Which states gained the most residents last year?

"the biggest disruption in oil market history"

A visual for Middle East oil production.

Iran at war may not really benefit Russia all that much.

Why not just shut down Iran's oil flow?

Song requests at piano bars have become quite diverse.

A visual for energy generation and consumption in the ten largest economies.

For the economy, there are more questions than answers right now.

Alas, Ray Dalio isn't very hopeful about the immediate future.

Drones have already completely changed warfare.

There's one way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that Trump hasn't been willing to consider.

Poland is scarcely the same country it was a generation ago.

What if the critics of the war are measuring the wrong things? 

Which states are the most and the least physically active?

USPS will have to address its fiscal crisis within the next year.

Are higher income levels actually more inclined to shoplift?

Robin Brooks takes a closer look at oil prices.

Oil price spikes aren't near as bad for the U.S. as was once the case.

Too many inflation factors are being ignored by the Fed right now. 

What makes the Gulf war such a consequential war?

A visual for global agricultural land.

Paul Krugman talks with Robin Brooks about the war.

The economic consequences may end up outlasting the Iran war.

Washington continues to ignore its looming fiscal crisis.

Many communities are simply not happy with the possibility of ICE detainees being held close by.

Robin Brooks discusses the recent oil shocks with Seth Hettena.

An interesting map for the timeline many homes were built across the U.S.

National healthcare spending has outpaced inflation to an unbelievable degree.

Lest anyone forget, NGDP still offers the same set of solutions that were possible all along. 

QE was supposed to be an important tool for the Fed. But in practice, it has proven difficult to reverse.

There is also a Saudi equation behind the war.

Here's why we can't have true walkable places in the U.S. Plus, a chart which helps explain why homelessness is so rampant.

Rural hospitals are not on the same page as citizens for expanding access to health care. And where exactly, is the buy in for "more creative means of access" taking place, other than in the imagination of policymakers? Meanwhile, there's been a recent slowdown in healthcare spending.

Where are the world's riskiest markets?

The war's near term effect on the economy is starting to come into view.

Happiness overall is still on the decline in the U.S.

Thankfully, many leaders around the world maintained their sanity when it comes to world trade.

Scott Sumner highlights how marginalism has evolved, and other observations regarding Tyler Cowen's new book.

"A move away from oil could be as powerful as the pressure to price it in other currencies."

Western and Sun Belt markets have experienced the greatest declines.

This war will eventually end. But plenty of patience is needed right now.

Arpit Gupta is one of many who continue to hope for a more abundant housing future.

At $5,000, batteries will be able to transform electrified transport.

When it comes to industrialization possibilities in emerging economies, services led growth is only part of the picture.

A visual for GDP growth since the turn of the century.

Those emergency oil stockpiles won't last long.

The Houthis are making a complex situation even more so.

As the giants became less predictable, other nations responded by becoming more economically reliable. Here's hoping the whole world will benefit from their restraint.

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Wrap Up for February 2026

Kevin Warsh's dogmatic view of economic policy could keep him from closely observing the relevant data. He does appear to have more criticisms than actual solutions.

Warsh actually faces two separate confirmation hurdles.

When it comes to monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, simpler is better.

Given the housing shortages of today, what could be learned from the city planners of the nineteenth century?

A wide range of data sets is no longer available for public access.

The U.S. lost its lead in R&D spending in 2024.

What made planning work so well for nineteenth century cities?

Higher oil and gas production has actually led to further U.S. deindustrialisation. It turns out the "Dutch Disease" is still relevant.

The large-country model doesn't work all that well in explaining real-world tariff outcomes.

Even though tourism in the U.S. currently has problems, it has done remarkably well in years past.

AI isn't enough justification for lower interest rates.

Defense spending per capita puts countries in a different light.

A closer look at the AI investment boom. 

A better understanding is needed regarding the sharp decline in hiring.  Plus an update.  

Perhaps the human brain just hasn't had time, to adjust to the relatively recent world of impersonal exchange. 

Glimmers of hope: A growing recognition of supply as the real problem.

Brian Potter details specifics in U.S. construction trends (part of a longer report).

Gallop will no longer track presidential approval ratings.

Many now turn to selling blood plasma as a way to make ends meet.

The last three years have seen surprising drops in rental costs in Sun Belt markets.

Labour force participation rates have risen as of late, perhaps higher than expected.

The populist trade backlash isn't solving economic problems, it is only assigning blame.

Once the price mechanism is suppressed, chaos results. And the Harberger triangle is the least of it.

If only it weren't for the details, this would look like a Goldilocks economy.

"The systems meant to protect nature now often prevent us from restoring it."

The ECB hopes to create a greater role for its currency.

A visual for electrical power sources in North America.

"The economic case for ditching the dollar remains weak. But the political case is growing stronger."

Where do states most align with Christian nationalist beliefs?

Timothy Taylor highlights a report re how AI affects productivity and employment.

Wherever automation technology adapts to situation-specific scenarios, the production gains could be considerable.

Which crops account for the greatest worldwide production?

Even the WSJ has noted how the ultra rich are pulling away from everyone else.

What will become of Medicare Advantage, once it loses some of those government advantages?

Tariffs have not led to trade rebalancing. Instead, tariffs have led to retreat, and continue to do so.

Property tax obligations vary widely across the U.S.

People were understandably concerned that data quality might be manipulated. However, the real problem has been the neglect of investment shortfalls.

Some specifics how the Supreme Court handled Trump's tariff loss. Joseph Politano provides further details.

Oil production gains are in a good place right now.

Even though monetary policy is good at dealing with inflation, neither monetary or fiscal policies are the right tools for prices that are considered too high. 

Is hard power really the currency of the age?

USA Facts offers a more practical version of the state of the union.

Some of the data center pipeline may ultimately be delayed.

Macro Musings goes full video, and the first episode is with Raghuram Rajan.

Where is food inflation expected to increase the most this year?

Some worthwhile books on communication.

Is Europe really poorer than the U.S.?

It turns out smartphones have been saving lives.

"People care. They just need a platform to act."

A visual which aptly illustrates home buying realities.

The reaction to Citrini was overblown.

Even though the Citrini report scared people, it was a fantasy without economic logic. 

It turns out lower income households spent more than expected this past year.

Disgruntled at work? Some who are, may be susceptible to hackers who offer the "right price".

"Our economic lives unfold in nominal terms."

Could the system break? Or will it be able to bend?

A film from 1997 feels relevant today.  Also, pictures from the airstrikes. 

Saturday, January 31, 2026

Wrap Up for January 2026






AI thinking in demented times. Why is it so important to awaken superintelligence as a final goal, anyway? And: "Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without preparing for it."







While low life expectancy in the U.S. is partly about young people, Hannah Ritchie takes a closer look at the particulars.

If Paul Krugman is right, perhaps more heavy oil will simply arrive in the Gulf for further production.  But what if - given suitable political and institutional circumstance - oil production here could become profitable at $25-$30 per barrel













The "No Hire" economy has been especially difficult for both low income and early career workers.




A joint statement in support of Federal Reserve independence. Also, international support.




























It could be said that water in the U.S. is "too clean". How is that even possible? It turns out that exorbitant costs associated with high expectations for water quality, are now part of what stands in the way of housing access.



What is the current status of tariff effects on U.S. prices? It helps to remember that lower income levels are more negatively affected, since more of their income goes to tariff impacted imports.


How much innovation might (finally) happen, now that construction industries are experiencing skills shortages?


What a rough and exhausting month it has been. I hope so much for all of us, that the future will be better than what we are currently experiencing now.

Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Wrap Up for December 2025

How the early "free labor" vision of the Republican party has become relevant again.

The AfD has become Germany's most popular party. What might that mean for Germany and Europe in general?

Trump doesn't realize how undermining the Fed's credibility ultimately pushes long rates higher. Yet it's a problem with historical precedent.

Fears of debt monetization aren't just a problem in the U.S.

Which companies are the most profitable globally?

The lack of statistics on immigration, can make it difficult to ask basic questions about the economy.

In LA, people finally started painted crosswalks themselves when the city dragged its feet about doing so for years.

A closer look at financial services in the U.S.

There's a difference between quantity supplied and the capacity to produce something.

More young adults are worried about the country's future now, than was the case in the Great Recession.

Contrary to expectations the U.S. hasn't really reduced its dependence on China. In fact, there has actually been friend-shoring in reverse.

China continues to innovate. But how do they do it?

People have their own ideas about how the economy is doing, and won't be lectured otherwise. Still, Trump's inflation claims are over the top.

What will the future of data be? Even as it evolves, it needs more help than it has gotten so far.

Medicaid has become a complicated two-tier system.

Toyota ranks highest among the world's best selling car brands.

There are jobs without a college degree requirement where a person can make a surprising amount of money.

Europe is not in a good place right now. Can it still turn things around?

Fed independence was the best way to achieve price stability. How economically stable might we remain when the Fed at least partially loses its independence?

A closer look at how monetary policy works, with examples.

What is a manufacturing worker exactly? The answer isn't quite as simple as it sounds.

The Fed has become profitable again, but questions and structural concerns remain about its recent losses.

How much can $100 actually purchase in each state?

Doctors now earn more than people realize. Plus, the highest paid doctors tend to live where one might not expect.

The most helpful description of sustainability is that it not only seeks opportunities for future generations, but also encourages a good life for those who live now.

There's a third possible scenario for AI in which it would struggle to realize significant profits.

Older high school students appear to have suffered greater learning disruptions during Covid, especially in math.

Home prices in several Canadian cities surged the most in the last 20 years, but places such as Dallas and Houston weren't that far behind.

Too many policy choices are now working against affordability, rather than addressing the issue.

Derek Thompson takes a look at the most important ideas of the present.

Both producer prices and export prices rose after Trump's election.

In some respects, the U.S. could be considered in a worse fiscal shape than Italy.

More states are moving to a junk food ban on SNAP purchases in January.

Unfortunately, the lack of productivity in construction is a global problem, not just a problem for the U.S.

Seemingly it's a gambler's paradise, but no one feels all that great.

Even though government statistical agencies are imperfect, the alternatives aren't a sufficient way to determine what's actually taking place.

The Chinese economy is still in need of consumer-led rebalancing if it is to meet its growth targets.

What does poverty actually consist of in the U.S.? Perhaps the real problem is we have eliminated too many options for practical lifestyles.

Family may not rank as high as one might expect in terms of values.

Paul Krugman and Adam Tooze take a closer look at what's really going on with Europe.  Also related, hedonic indices only go so far to highlight differences in productivity.

The cost of goods and services are about 25% higher than they were in 2020.

Have we entered a world in which inflation has become "structurally harder to extinguish"?

Minnesota has been a particularly good state for innovators.

The rally in precious metals is really about the loss of confidence in fiat money in general.

A bright spot in the recent redistricting battles.

When approximately 75 percent of U.S. imports are actually intermediate goods, tariffs don't work as advertised.

Which states are responsible for a greater share of U.S. GDP?  Also, What states currently face greater recession risks?

By the early 2000s the world had learned some vitally important economic lessons, but alas, in the last 20 years has managed to throw much of that hard earned wisdom away. 

Both home ownership and mobility can be impacted, when local areas suffer losses in income generating capacity due to changing market conditions.

Involuntary part-time work is surging, and that's not a good sign.

There's a trend that's being missed, regarding young people who lack any real level of social engagement.

The private-sector data hasn't been lining up well with the government data.

The last decade has seen a large decline in active religious involvement for U.S. citizens.

Why isn't residential wealth the kind of economic gain that it appears?

Affordability isn't simple, especially since it reflects the realities of incomes and wages.

That global supply chain omelette that nations were relying on, is not at all easy to unscramble.

Where are the world's largest cities located?

How are today's tariffs different from those of the late 1800s?

In the countries that are best at math, the U.S. is among the rankings, but barely.

So far, most political attempts at increasing affordability are more short term thinking than long term efforts.

The last six years saw most income levels lose a sizable percentage of home ownership access.

Scott Sumner explains why the monthly jobs report is so important.
















I wish all my readers a New Year of peace, beauty and tranquility, such as one finds in the images of this video.

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Wrap Up for November 2025

There's been a rise in 30-year government bond yields across much of the G10.

Some supply side markups can make tariff costs higher than initial estimates. What can get hidden is who actually benefits.

An interview with Hanno Lustig.

The global appetite for chocolate is still growing. What if chocolate could be lab grown?

We had it relatively easy for eighty years. But what comes now?

Inflation has become the main financial challenge for many.

What is an abundance movement good for, exactly?

Argentina is an apt example why dollarization isn't a currency solution for other nations. And, further considerations why the math simply doesn't work.

The EU lacks the fiscal space to do what is needed, indeed, Germany stands in the way of doing so.

People continue to adapt and find ways to deal with inflation.

A visual for the wealthiest nations.

Rice fields have become a host for migrating birds, and farmers are finding it beneficial to work with these migrations as well.

The case for high-skilled immigration remains relevant.

Even though inflation is running at 3 percent, that's certainly not the way our grocery bills feel.

Affordability hasn't worked out as well for Republicans as they had hoped.

An in-depth look at the economics of the baby bust.

Florida is currently the most rent-burdened state.

The private sector is stepping up to the plate for jobs data. However, much is still missing.

Some are convinced this is a rough historical moment for degree holders.

Despite the negatives of political polarization, it has increased voter numbers to a great extent. Plus, the Supreme Court continues to grapple with presidential power when it comes to tariffs.

How have Trump's tariffs impacted trade in services?

Just a handful of nations are responsible for much of global shipping capacity.

In his six month anniversary post, Robin Brooks highlights his main themes.

Stablecoin use in a new era of fiscal dominance.

How has anxiety medication changed in the last seven decades?

There are multiple paths and time frames for becoming a U.S. citizen.

A 50 year mortgage wouldn't be near as advantageous for consumers as some imagine.

It's never a good idea to give intellectual cover to authoritarianism.

The U.S. particularly benefits from international flows of doctors and nurses.

Ancient Roman territories were surprisingly well connected.

Rising insurance costs due to changing climate conditions, are also changing housing markets.

The first chapter of Brian Potter's recent book, examines what production processes actually consist of.

A visual for the nations which now share $111 trillion in global debt.

Prosperity is still real in the U.S. But how do we - once again - make it visible and tangible?

When it comes to affordability, some politicians aren't willing to face the realities of basic economics.

In the last decade, younger women have expressed a greater desire to migrate away from the U.S.

Barry Eichengreen discusses "Deficits and Debt in the Lens of History."

So far, the new debasement trade isn't about moving away from the dollar, it's more a broader loss of confidence in fiat currencies altogether.

Does the economy no longer work for younger people? Derek Thompson takes a closer look.

Globalization raised living standards across the world, but it also led to considerable geographic inequalities.

China's people have been working harder than ever, but for fewer gains.

How might one think about oil and gas consumption in the near future? It depends on other forms of energy adoption and how they actually play out.

Which North American cities have gained the most population since 2005?

Why has it become more difficult for countries to overcome extreme poverty?

Economic concerns are one of the main things uniting an otherwise polarized U.S.

Nut trees are providing farmers with much needed biodiversity. I'm especially partial to the pecan trees that are native to my area.

"Affordability" isn't an easy term to pin down, despite its recent popularity.

Trump's AI policy is quite different from the rest of his trade agenda.

What a paradox! "US tariffs on China became protection for non-Chinese exporters."

Voters and economists are of different minds when it comes to taxes.

What happens when people give up on the prospect of home ownership?

China is becoming a world leader in pharmaceuticals.

Scott Sumner responds to two recent posts from David Beckworth.

Which nations drink the most coffee? Also, a visual for rare earth reserves around the globe.

A global calculation of wild animals by weight, brought some surprising results. 

Unemployment rates for high school graduates versus college graduates: what has changed?

In 2024, about one in seven residents in the U.S. were foreign-born. 

A history of density changes over time, via upzoning and downzoning.

Visualizing productivity changes of the thirty largest economies in the last twenty years.

Some macroeconomic musings for Thanksgiving.

Surprisingly, China now depends on exports less than its peers.

How much has Hong Kong's identity actually changed?

China may not be as determined now to "double down" on industrial policy.

Once again, the Beverage curve trap has been proven to be a mirage. Yet basic monetary economics could have provided what was needed.

Auerbach and Gale review U.S. budget trends.

In the semiconductor industry, factory building costs nonetheless reduce profits from technological gains.

Neil Irwin notes that for Social Security, the day of reckoning is almost at hand. It is no longer a "far-off" problem.