Saturday, September 30, 2023

Wrap Up for September 2023

Public schools haven't addressed learning losses that resulted from the pandemic.

A visual for the current difference between cost to rent versus cost to buy a home.

Much of the debate about China's economic potential is misleading.

The college wage premium is not as pronounced as before.

Odd Lots with Barry Eichengreen on the "New Era of High Public Debt"

Will AI become an equalizer for human capital potential?

Vertical relationships between primary care physicians and health systems are resulting in higher costs.

A visual of China's slowing economy.

Much of the inflation that remains is due to healthcare.

Does China have economic incentives for war?

Scott Sumner highlights a recent paper from the San Francisco Fed.

Time management has changed as the monetary value of time has evolved.

Confidence in the current Federal Reserve chairman has reached a low ebb.

Inflation has come down. Yet the cost of living remains inflated. Who is right?

Many nations have a poor perception of capitalism as concept.

Should a period of high inflation also becomes associated with a higher wage level, it's a kind of inflation which cannot be defined as "transitory". Which also holds true for the recent inflationary period.

"economics is too silent on big issues"

Anupam Bapu Jena discusses his book Random Acts of Medicine with Russ Roberts.

The link between medical debt and homelessness.

Noah Smith is optimistic about the next phase of globalization.

Religious attendance used to be associated with interpersonal trust.

Who has incentive to take on significant extension of new transmission lines?

Tokyo has turned out to be one of the most affordable yet desirable places to live.

"Joe Gagnon on Inflation Progress and the Path Ahead".

The U.S. is fortunate indeed to hold a global currency, if it can keep it.

Measuring healthcare has become too difficult to manage the inflation it causes.

Economic growth in the U.S. has remained fairly close to trend for the last 150 years.

Large central bank balances are increasingly being questioned.

Continuing inflation could also have political effects.

"Commutes are down, but people are finding other reasons to leave the house."

What if recent YIMBY deregulation hasn't really been all that effective in California?

Once borrowing becomes more expensive, the likelihood of austerity increases.

In what way does supply and demand explain inflation?

The parallel crisis of nursing homes and child care.

Victor Fuchs also believed healthcare costs were largely responsible, for the ever growing imbalance between our nation's GDP and fiscal trajectory .

How does today's Social Security funding challenge compare to the one in 1983? As the deadline for reduced SS approaches, I've wondered whether recent retirees are moving forward in time important spending decisions - the kind which otherwise tend to be spread out over decades. The (likely) future shortfall has certainly affected my recent spending decisions. As Baby Boomers continue retiring, perhaps a growing awareness of this problem is reflected in today's stronger than expected consumer activity.

Robert McCauley discusses bond market crisis with David Beckworth.

Are hospitals with substantial market power more productive?

Price gouging is a good example why economics is so difficult to understand.

A visual of subsea cables.

From Claudia Sahm: GDP revisions are a reminder not to rely too much on any one data point.

Claudia Sahm also recently noted that Covid could have caused poor consumer sentiment. Scott Sumner suggests political polarization is responsible. While both have valid arguments, I'm partial to higher costs in housing and transportation which have permanently reduced lifestyle options for millions. This, in spite of successful global efforts to bring down aggregate inflation. 

Chances are, loneliness is a greater problem for lower income groups than was once the case, because money is now more of a necessity just to partake in a wide range of social activities. For me this is yet another reason to implement time arbitrage as a component/measure of economic activity. Over the years, I've also advocated for time arbitrage in local education, in part as a way for students to regain much needed independence in their youth. It's time to reduce the battles of parental control versus teacher/administrator control over student educational decisions, instead how about letting students assume active roles in these processes? After all - not surprisingly - lack of independence negatively impacts childrens' well being.

David Beckworth highlights a speech by Isabel Schnabel.

"the life expectancy of capital investment has been declining."

Healthcare is one aspect of immigration which could find some bipartisan agreement.

Stefanie Stantcheva explains how zero sum thinking impacts polarization.

There are more single-parent households in the U.S. than anywhere else.

Thomas Hoenig discusses public debt sustainability and the current state of banking.

100 years of macroeconomics: Perhaps critiques are better than models.

Rising real rates have yet to become prominent in mainstream news.

Realistically, it's their last chance to strike in a quickly changing environment for auto manufacturing.

Documenting the recent upsurge of new firm formation in the U.S.

Tyler Cowen notes the need for price transparency in hospitals.