Wrap Up for May 2026

Ryan Avent talks with Brink Lindsey about the power of faith and culture.

American dads have changed considerably since the fifties.

The economic blockade campaign is about more than just Iran.

What does access for a new retirement plan, consist of? 

Part of what makes life more expensive now in the U.S. is a weaker dollar.

Electricity supply is rising, as demand rises even faster. Texas is rising to the challenge, but more rapid energy build out is needed across the U.S.

Aircrafts are a prominent export in multiple states.

A 100% debt-to-GDP level isn't necessarily a deal breaker. But the way a debt trajectory actually rises, can be.

"Most good ideas are born as twins."

Robin Brooks explains why the blockade is working.

Hannah Ritchie takes a closer look at near future AI electricity demand.

When it comes to home affordability, income levels matter. (A visual)

Tautologies are more useful than they are often given credit for.

Embodied human labour is a lot more complex than what AI is actually performing. "When a dollar is saved, where is it redirected?"

Will the nominal anchor continue to hold?

Even though the labour market is stabilising, it is doing so with higher prices.

Some charts which illustrate how debt is becoming a global problem.

Minnesota has the highest home ownership rates for young adults.

Most countries remain sold on free trade, even if the U.S. no longer is. However, economists were right about the economic pain the tariffs would cause.

What might the changing California job market imply for the rest of the country?

It hasn't been long since pancreatic cancer was practically a death sentence, but much has changed.

In war, a nation's ability to survive shouldn't be confused with victory. Iran isn't quite as strong as some like to imagine.

Betting on future risks has its useful qualities, but doing so can also corrupt.

The 21st century is also the time of the "Great Forgetting".

Saying goodbye to a dependable and trustworthy Fed chair.

Tariffs haven't helped the U.S. economically. And trading partners have dramatically changed in the past 25 years.

Neil Irwin reflects on Jerome Powell's chairmanship.

Trump and Xi went into the summit with the same modest expectations.

What if an AI bust wouldn't really hurt that much?

"The number of children on the planet has been going down since around 2012. It's just that their grandparents have not died yet."

History will likely be kind to Jerome Powell.

China has retained a longer than expected lock on low-skilled goods production, to the detriment of emerging economies.

A visual for world fertility rates.

Have Republicans basically given up on free markets?

Pediatric surgeons have the highest wages.

One can only hope that data centers will take a strong interest in water recycling. After all, they are being built in some places where water is already in short supply.

Is vicemaxxing the new normal?

The Secular Stagnation theory turned out to be not so compelling.

There's a price for exorbitant privilege that is seldom considered.

A visual for the world's largest food exporters.

The Fed has not been offsetting excess fiscal demand.

Both Medicare and Medicaid have become reliant on private health insurance.

Hiring demand really depends on one's home state.

Independent bookstores are actually doing better than many realize.

For the Fed, it's actually easier to move the road than to steer the car. Even so, "moving the road" doesn't always guarantee a positive outcome.

A visual for foreign investment in 100 nations.

Not all forms of attention are the same, and the differences are important.

Services are almost half the value of U.S. exports, but that important factor has been completely missed in Trump's tariff calculations.

In the past ten years anger has been on the rise.

It turns out that once immigration stalls, something odd occurs: Just because job numbers turn negative doesn't necessarily mean a downturn is underway.

What point was there in putting tariffs on musical instruments, when few were being made in the U.S. to begin with? "Imports of musical instruments are cratering."

Which states have experienced the most population growth since 1970?

Paul Krugman answers his critics concerning discussions about standards of living in Europe and the U.S.

Wrap Up for April 2026

The chickens are coming home to roost for the U.S. debt trajectory

India's services sector continues to be a strong part of its economy.

When the largest importer decided to weaponize imports, the largest exporter responded  by weaponizing exports. Yet other countries decided not to participate in the trade war.

NAFTA vulnerability was greatest in eastern portions of the U.S.

Progress in battery storage is one of the good news stories of our times.

AI may change what is deemed most useful and valuable in knowledge at a fundamental level.

Even EV production is getting stuck at the Strait of Hormuz.

Leadership has been sorely missing and could get worse.

Manufacturing jobs are not the panacea that some make them out to be.

Where has manufacturing growth taken place?

A visual for global population growth in the last 25 years.

More cities are essentially being built around the needs of the elderly.

One of the most telling trends that highlights the extreme housing shortage.

Affordability is an important factor in the elections this time around.

The Iran war will change energy markets in the years to come.

Baumol's cost disease is a big part of the explanation for today's excessive levels of solitude. 

The Fed is gradually shifting its framework towards shrinking the balance sheet.

Ukrainian drone attacks have also concentrated on a Baltic choke point.

Nursing has become a path to prosperity, yet the difficult nature of the work helps explain why.

The many benefits of green spaces.

Helium supplies have also been reduced with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Has price theory really become irrelevant? Not so fast.

Self-cleaning toilets are part of the public amenities in Paris.

Some areas along the Texas border remain determined to nix the border wall.

Both parties have lost patience with the excessively high costs of healthcare. Also, the cost shift myth has been busted.

Encouraging men to go where the jobs really are, isn't always a simple matter.

Dollar dominance is no longer as certain as it was even a few years earlier.  And one of the reasons why?There's little if any political will, to return to a path of fiscal responsibility.

The safe haven status for gold may be temporarily compromised.

How does war compare to other macroeconomic impacts? It is often the strongest and the most difficult to manage.

What makes Japan's railway companies so strong?

Most countries remain quite dependent on food sources from other countries.

The president is not the person responsible for macroeconomic outcomes.

Ryan Avent has recently published his new book, In Good Faith.

Austin is a great supply side example of what is possible with adequate housing construction.

Marcus Nunes examines different currents of thought regarding dollar dominance.

Is today's main economic problem the level of prices, or is there more to the story?

That "whiplash economy" feeling is more than just a data problem.

A visual for global production of natural gas.

There are plenty of reasons for the big drop in the crime rate.

Washington's humility certainly helped this country get off to a good start.

It remains to be seen, whether Kevin Warsh is not a problematic pick for the Fed.

Spending per student varies considerably, depending on the country.

Grid battery manufacture has been the main U.S. success story, even as EV battery capacity is further delayed.

Kevin Warsh wants to change many aspects of Fed communications. To what extent may that happen?

Not everyone is on board with his nomination.

The Iran war has essentially been a stress test for Beijing.

What are the main drivers of today's global imbalances?

Population loss is not a problem with easy answers.

English speaking countries have experienced the largest decline in well being in the last decade.

Timothy Taylor provides highlights from a recent essay by Richard Baldwin. And the trade war between the U.S. and China holds its own lessons for the Iran war.

Both parties have turned to overnight sessions just to get legislation passed.

Recommendations for books on Taiwan and US-China relations.

This year's shocks feel more serious than what occurred last year.

Housing policy logic has become more complex than ever.

How much is left after basic expenses are met? A visual for the wide divergence between states.

Is this the "end of an era" for the Fed, or only a test?

Not many states actually benefit much from global investment.

Currency swap lines may be used a bit differently this time around.

It's not just the Fed that is paralyzed by the Iran war, other central banks are as well.

Will the world be able to limit the weaponisation of shipping?

The blockade could be having its desired effect.

Wrap Up for March 2026

Axios provides details for the lead up to the Iran war.

Killing El Mencho wasn't as advantageous as it may have seemed.

A focus on the opening move over Tehran.

"Right to Build" could conceptually help cut through the problems of affordable housing. 

The "disappearing secretary" gives important clues about what AI is likely to do. Secretarial job losses didn't get the attention they deserved when they happened. I'm glad that's finally changed.

Why would Iran decide to use tactics that could end up framing it as the common enemy? Also, his hopes for an Abrahamic alliance.

What is it really like to be a parent?

How effective are fiscal rules for emerging market economies?

China's electricity advantage isn't quite as straightforward as it may seem.

It's important to not reason from a quantity change in housing.

Young workers of all educational levels are being left behind in the job market, and this is still a mystery.

There were considerable efforts to innovate building construction in the 1970s which ultimately failed.

A deeper aspect of what Operation Epic Fury may have been about.

When it comes to career opportunities, older workers have pulled ahead of younger workers.

Are others trustworthy and basically moral? Alas, people in the U.S. aren't so sure.

A visual for oil supply choke points around the world.

Sometimes, panic is actually what's needed to get things done.

How will the Fed respond to a supply side oil shock this time?

Data centers place heavy demands on local community resources, so it greatly matters how their benefits and risks are allocated. 

Mosquitoes and snakes account for the most deaths by far.

On March 9 Trump said the war would be over quickly. But Iran is thinking differently and the war has already expanded. Also, a missed opportunity seven months earlier.

The gender gap in education is stronger where economies are struggling.

Which states gained the most residents last year?

"the biggest disruption in oil market history"

A visual for Middle East oil production.

Iran at war may not really benefit Russia all that much.

Why not just shut down Iran's oil flow?

Song requests at piano bars have become quite diverse.

A visual for energy generation and consumption in the ten largest economies.

For the economy, there are more questions than answers right now.

Alas, Ray Dalio isn't very hopeful about the immediate future.

Drones have already completely changed warfare.

There's one way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that Trump hasn't been willing to consider.

Poland is scarcely the same country it was a generation ago.

What if the critics of the war are measuring the wrong things? 

Which states are the most and the least physically active?

USPS will have to address its fiscal crisis within the next year.

Are higher income levels actually more inclined to shoplift?

Robin Brooks takes a closer look at oil prices.

Oil price spikes aren't near as bad for the U.S. as was once the case.

Too many inflation factors are being ignored by the Fed right now. 

What makes the Gulf war such a consequential war?

A visual for global agricultural land.

Paul Krugman talks with Robin Brooks about the war.

The economic consequences may end up outlasting the Iran war.

Washington continues to ignore its looming fiscal crisis.

Many communities are simply not happy with the possibility of ICE detainees being held close by.

Robin Brooks discusses the recent oil shocks with Seth Hettena.

An interesting map for the timeline many homes were built across the U.S.

National healthcare spending has outpaced inflation to an unbelievable degree.

Lest anyone forget, NGDP still offers the same set of solutions that were possible all along. 

QE was supposed to be an important tool for the Fed. But in practice, it has proven difficult to reverse.

There is also a Saudi equation behind the war.

Here's why we can't have true walkable places in the U.S. Plus, a chart which helps explain why homelessness is so rampant.

Rural hospitals are not on the same page as citizens for expanding access to health care. And where exactly, is the buy in for "more creative means of access" taking place, other than in the imagination of policymakers? Meanwhile, there's been a recent slowdown in healthcare spending.

Where are the world's riskiest markets?

The war's near term effect on the economy is starting to come into view.

Happiness overall is still on the decline in the U.S.

Thankfully, many leaders around the world maintained their sanity when it comes to world trade.

Scott Sumner highlights how marginalism has evolved, and other observations regarding Tyler Cowen's new book.

"A move away from oil could be as powerful as the pressure to price it in other currencies."

Western and Sun Belt markets have experienced the greatest declines.

This war will eventually end. But plenty of patience is needed right now.

Arpit Gupta is one of many who continue to hope for a more abundant housing future.

At $5,000, batteries will be able to transform electrified transport.

When it comes to industrialization possibilities in emerging economies, services led growth is only part of the picture.

A visual for GDP growth since the turn of the century.

Those emergency oil stockpiles won't last long.

The Houthis are making a complex situation even more so.

As the giants became less predictable, other nations responded by becoming more economically reliable. Here's hoping the whole world will benefit from their restraint.

Wrap Up for February 2026

Kevin Warsh's dogmatic view of economic policy could keep him from closely observing the relevant data. He does appear to have more criticisms than actual solutions.

Warsh actually faces two separate confirmation hurdles.

When it comes to monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, simpler is better.

Given the housing shortages of today, what could be learned from the city planners of the nineteenth century?

A wide range of data sets is no longer available for public access.

The U.S. lost its lead in R&D spending in 2024.

What made planning work so well for nineteenth century cities?

Higher oil and gas production has actually led to further U.S. deindustrialisation. It turns out the "Dutch Disease" is still relevant.

The large-country model doesn't work all that well in explaining real-world tariff outcomes.

Even though tourism in the U.S. currently has problems, it has done remarkably well in years past.

AI isn't enough justification for lower interest rates.

Defense spending per capita puts countries in a different light.

A closer look at the AI investment boom. 

A better understanding is needed regarding the sharp decline in hiring.  Plus an update.  

Perhaps the human brain just hasn't had time, to adjust to the relatively recent world of impersonal exchange. 

Glimmers of hope: A growing recognition of supply as the real problem.

Brian Potter details specifics in U.S. construction trends (part of a longer report).

Gallop will no longer track presidential approval ratings.

Many now turn to selling blood plasma as a way to make ends meet.

The last three years have seen surprising drops in rental costs in Sun Belt markets.

Labour force participation rates have risen as of late, perhaps higher than expected.

The populist trade backlash isn't solving economic problems, it is only assigning blame.

Once the price mechanism is suppressed, chaos results. And the Harberger triangle is the least of it.

If only it weren't for the details, this would look like a Goldilocks economy.

"The systems meant to protect nature now often prevent us from restoring it."

The ECB hopes to create a greater role for its currency.

A visual for electrical power sources in North America.

"The economic case for ditching the dollar remains weak. But the political case is growing stronger."

Where do states most align with Christian nationalist beliefs?

Timothy Taylor highlights a report re how AI affects productivity and employment.

Wherever automation technology adapts to situation-specific scenarios, the production gains could be considerable.

Which crops account for the greatest worldwide production?

Even the WSJ has noted how the ultra rich are pulling away from everyone else.

What will become of Medicare Advantage, once it loses some of those government advantages?

Tariffs have not led to trade rebalancing. Instead, tariffs have led to retreat, and continue to do so.

Property tax obligations vary widely across the U.S.

People were understandably concerned that data quality might be manipulated. However, the real problem has been the neglect of investment shortfalls.

Some specifics how the Supreme Court handled Trump's tariff loss. Joseph Politano provides further details.

Oil production gains are in a good place right now.

Even though monetary policy is good at dealing with inflation, neither monetary or fiscal policies are the right tools for prices that are considered too high. 

Is hard power really the currency of the age?

USA Facts offers a more practical version of the state of the union.

Some of the data center pipeline may ultimately be delayed.

Macro Musings goes full video, and the first episode is with Raghuram Rajan.

Where is food inflation expected to increase the most this year?

Some worthwhile books on communication.

Is Europe really poorer than the U.S.?

It turns out smartphones have been saving lives.

"People care. They just need a platform to act."

A visual which aptly illustrates home buying realities.

The reaction to Citrini was overblown.

Even though the Citrini report scared people, it was a fantasy without economic logic. 

It turns out lower income households spent more than expected this past year.

Disgruntled at work? Some who are, may be susceptible to hackers who offer the "right price".

"Our economic lives unfold in nominal terms."

Could the system break? Or will it be able to bend?

A film from 1997 feels relevant today.  Also, pictures from the airstrikes. 

Wrap Up for January 2026

Some charts and explanations for losses in G7 industrialization.

The recent transition to fiscal dominance is proving difficult to reverse.

Sweden hasn't had the efficiency gains from prefab construction that one might expect.

Where have fertility rates declined the most? And, there have been considerable shifts in global economic power since 1980.

Total output tends to tell us more about existing inequalities than income distribution.

AI thinking in demented times. Why is it so important to awaken superintelligence as a final goal, anyway? And: "Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without preparing for it."

How big of a risk would it be for oil companies to invest in Venezuela now, given so many unknowns?

Home health and personal care aides are likely the fastest growing jobs of the coming decade. 

When it comes to actions taken by a state, context is more important than people often realize.

Venezuela has a complicated oil history. And,

Venezuela's heavy crude is more useful for  U.S. refining capacity than some realize.

The economic impacts of tariffs haven't been as disruptive as many expected them to be.

Recent policy strategy isn't just about oil, it's also about rare earths.

While low life expectancy in the U.S. is partly about young people, Hannah Ritchie takes a closer look at the particulars.

If Paul Krugman is right, perhaps more heavy oil will simply arrive in the Gulf for further production.  But what if - given suitable political and institutional circumstance - oil production here could become profitable at $25-$30 per barrel? 

Even failed New Year's resolutions serve a useful purpose.

It's simple actions like this that still give me hope for the world!

Graphs provide a closer look at the current market for employment.

With the disintegration of the old world order, it's anyone's guess what comes next.

"Six more months. This regime has six months left."

A visual for global inflation in 2025. Also, a visual for the healthiest places to live in the U.S.

Even though the rewards of globalization didn't shrink, 80 percent of Americans ended up with a smaller slice of the economic pie.

What's going on in the economy? Kyla Scanlon sits down with Mary Daly and Tom Barkin.

Where is the digital workforce in the U.S. and how is it evolving?

As expected, firms downstream of metals manufacturing are having a more difficult time.

Janet Yellen spoke recently about the problems of fiscal dominance.

The U.S. drinks a lot of beer but China drinks even more.

The "No Hire" economy has been especially difficult for both low income and early career workers.

The threat of a federal indictment finally convinced Jerome Powell to explain, what's really at stake for the Federal Reserve. And, Good on you, Alex Tabarrok, for saying what needed to be said. But as for Tyler, I would suggest he recover his spine by letting people know publicly that he cares about much more than the price of gold! The fact that Powell is dug in (and rightly so), "makes a mess of things". Ah well!

Despite the possibility of revolution, there are no obvious alternatives for Iran.

Apartments have become more affordable recently in Sun Belt markets. But might that process continue?

A joint statement in support of Federal Reserve independence. Also, international support.

A thought experiment for solar panels on land that is currently being used for biofuels.

In real time, witnessing a man of integrity and courage.

Why are people collectively pessimistic, and why does it matter for the state of the world?

Markets are still quiet after the threat to the Fed's independence, but that's no reason to breathe easy.

There's been plenty of pushback in support of Jerome Powell. And it could be working.

A visual which charts price changes in the last 25 years.

Participatory budgets as a way to help reduce local corruption.

More doctors are moving to a cash based system for healthcare.

The next Fed Chair will have to prove that he is independent, even though that won't go over well with the President.

An even more extreme immigrant ban has now been adopted.

It's hard to believe that just 4% of the economy is currently responsible for 92% of growth.

Those coveted minerals aren't rare, "just hell to process".

Claudia Sahm and Paul Krugman take another look at current Federal Reserve circumstance.

How has the U.S. Dollar fared recently against other major currencies?

The U.S. still has exorbitant privilege, but it's far from perfect.

Which homes remain affordable to median-income households?

There's a mechanic shortage. Or, is there?

Much has changed in terms of wealth since 2010.

The EU has yet to adapt to a world where - once again - might makes right.

Some commodities are no longer getting cheaper as time goes on.

The forcible removal of 8 to 10 million immigrant workers is no small thing, and doing so also means negative macroeconomic impacts. "Mass deportation does not elevate American workers."

Those risks for higher inflation are still playing out.

Greenland simply isn't worth what people imagine it to be worth.

For obvious reasons, this killing was a "murder too far". "They've taken the best of us!"

Where are the green shoots in manufacturing?

The dollar isn't doing well right now. And the sell-off is accelerating.

Brutal? Yes. Unprecedented? No. This song is quite appropriate for Zachary Karabell's reasoning: "I'm starting with the Man in the Mirror". What has happened in Minnesota is horrifying, yet it is also encouraging.

It could be said that water in the U.S. is "too clean". How is that even possible? It turns out that exorbitant costs associated with high expectations for water quality, are now part of what stands in the way of housing access.

Are manufactured  goods more likely to decline in price over time (good deflation) than commodities? It's complicated.

A visual for countries where U.S. debt is held.

What is the current status of tariff effects on U.S. prices? It helps to remember that lower income levels are more negatively affected, since more of their income goes to tariff impacted imports.

Kevin  Warsh could be a hawk in dove's clothing. But who really knows for sure? Also: The Dollar rose and precious  metals fell. Yet how much of this is even related to Warsh? Warsh has been a monetary policy hawk all along. I remember well, previous years when his hawkish stance contributed to monetary policy mishaps. So, what gives?

How much innovation might (finally) happen, now that construction industries are experiencing skills shortages?

Immigration agents at an elementary school: "They linger at dismissal time, when kids are walking home or being picked up. They follow parents driving other people's kids home..."

What a rough and exhausting month it has been. I hope so much for all of us, that the future will be better than what we are currently experiencing now.