Saturday, October 31, 2026

Wrap Up for October 2026

The AI boom intersects more with globalisation and geopolitics than people realize.

What does stronger growth actually mean for rural counties? Access to metropolitan areas makes a big difference.

Just as a demand collapse was missed in 2008, the opposite circumstance of demand excess is being missed today.

Even a basic level of financial literacy remains a problem for many.

Perhaps it's not surprising when the elderly prefer robots to humans for activities they can no longer perform for themselves.

What happens when AI means fewer specialists are needed? I would question the proposed solution of "more comprehensive training", given the already exorbitant costs of knowledge acquisition, especially since only so many individuals with advanced knowledge can be highly compensated (monetarily) in the first place. Much of what I advocated years earlier, included reducing the costs of knowledge acquisition by individuals.

Despite this being a time of numerous strategic defeats, Greenland has been a strategic win.

Sometimes, models that aren't quite right, or are even completely wrong, can be wrong in useful ways. Scott  Sumner adds that even NGDP targeting is "usefully wrong" in its own way, especially now.

What makes rural areas different from metro areas?

A closer look, with graphs, at five eras of wage growth in the U.S.

Medical debt has become a big part of the affordability crisis.

China's manufacturing has become cheaper relative to the world average.

It has been too easy to forget how important monetary policy is, for public debt.

Real incomes for Americans in the post-pandemic period, aren't quite what people expected.

People in the U.S. stopped falling in love, but that's only the beginning of the story.

When will profitability catch up to investment in AI?

NPR highlights the more recent approach that Hall and Woodford brought to macroeconomics.

Timothy Taylor reflects on a decades-long macroeconomic journey, from its earlier beginnings to the latest economic Nobel.

"The Committee was united in raising rates but divided on why."

Warsh unfortunately finds it advantageous to be "a chairman without an anchor".

A visual comparison of home values by state.

Vehicle production around the world in 2025.

Cost-of-living concerns are the president's biggest problem right now.

How might selfishness matter, for the level of inequality that a country is willing to tolerate?

A surprising number of countries live under old leaders.

There is a variable that could separate the two inflations, if only the Fed were willing to use it.

How to think about China's growth model, in relation to the West?

This inflation report will be hard for the Fed to ignore. Justin Wolfers notes that it was worse than expected.

EVs are only part of the picture for China's massive production gains.

Warsh claims the Fed has left forward guidance behind, as if that were an achievement. He is quickly spending what credibility he has, without attempting to earn any further.

What if martial law is deemed "necessary"?

In present day macroeconomic theory, the role of money remains unclear.

Economic concerns in France are more important for global markets than some realize.

Upside risks to inflation over the coming year, have only grown.

A visual for differences in marriage and divorce rates among states.

Each of the last six years has brought another supply-side shock to the global economy.

There have been real wealth gains in many parts of the U.S. since 2000.

How big were the two global Chinese production surges? Even though the second shock represented slower growth, it resulted in more output.

Local land use rules are making it difficult to build many starter homes.

The U.S. came in low on the rankings of best countries to live in in 2026.

Our debt problems are no longer in the future in the U.S. for they have already arrived.

Cyril Morong highlights Jason Furman's new Econvitals website.

Marcus Nunes explains where fiscal risk actually lies.

Visualizing the most and least trusted professions of 2026.



"the Baumol effect makes the scope of the welfare state unsustainable": This unfortunate reality is why I sought a sustainable approach to time based services - one which could have reduced governmental debt loads. If only I had the stamina to continue such advocacy! But - at least for now - my earlier writings remain on this blog. Alas, as Cyril Hedoin noted, the new paradigm is going to be with us for a while.