Thursday, April 30, 2020

Wrap Up for April 2020

"One change is that cities do not seem to be functioning as ladders of opportunity."

Some principles for teaching one on one.

A working paper from the San Francisco Fed: "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics"

An exercise in modeling shock effects.

It turns out that consolidation in the production of ventilators wasn't a good idea.

Solving the great toilet paper mystery!
Cyril Morong offers further rationale.

Let's be careful in any return to "normalcy", not to assume away the importance of subjectivity in human want as a source of wealth.

"Throughout the 2020 crisis there has been a slightly eerie sense of mind-meld between the wonkish/thinktank commentariat and the Fed. The Fed's latest repo initiative raised that sense of mind-meld to a new level."

Scott Sumner explains why money matters. Also, some clarification regarding the money multiplier.

Alas, "senators seem to behave better the further they are away from the voters". But does this mean we would benefit from less democracy?

Industries with low face to face interactions are more likely to resume normal activity in the near future.
Also, "Over 37 million Americans work in industries immediately impacted by COVID-19."

How might the world change after COVID-19?

Social distancing affects industry output.

The current recession will be the fourteenth since the Great Depression.

Edoardo Campanella reviews two recent books about pandemics.

Germany put plenty of efforts into contact tracing.

"The characteristics of the coronavirus itself made an effective response difficult."

How could knowledge and skill be more broadly applied in society as a whole? Too much diversity representation discussion, is really about the limited slots available in the top tiers of knowledge use.

Some good news for the month: A new way to generate electricity.

Democracy was essentially built up on America's factory floors, when manufacturing created a prosperous middle class. Can democracy be preserved in a post manufacturing economy? (Ed Leamer and Russ Roberts)

Dietrich Vollrath and James Pethokoukis on the long term decline in economic growth.

From the IMF: The Great Lockdown, also threats to financial stability.

The Austrian school in particular has been blindsided by a growing public rationale of and support for MMT. Could MMT "prove correct in its macro predictions"? And, what is the real cost?
Alas, another part of the reality: "MMT could be Democrats' way of saying 'We don't want to be suckers anymore.'"

Agriculture is transitioning into more automation due to ongoing labour shortages.

How is COVID-19 affecting the global demand for dollars?

China reopens its wet markets. But wet markets are not all the same.

Why has the labour response in Europe and the U.S. to the pandemic, been so different?

For some, it feels as if time has stopped. Young people in particular, are missing personal interaction which normally leads to milestones in their lives.

"Hospitals are surprisingly fragile as economic entities."

Something positive is taking place with solar cell technology, even if it isn't being noticed right now.

"It's time to build."

Hopefully, short term pain will not become long term scarring. "What do cyclical norms suggest?"

In 1960, healthcare was five percent of the economy. Today, healthcare spending is almost a fifth of all spending in the U.S.

"A supply shock is a situation where RGDP growth will fall if you hold NGDP constant."

Long term there will be more risk aversion, going forward. Overall productivity could be lower as well.

Adam Tooze provides a recent chronology of central bank action.

The international community has built economic integration which does not include solidarity.

Washington has yet to take global logistics for vaccine development, into account. For example, "What if the first, or best, or most effective vaccine is a Swiss vaccine and virtually all of the needles now come from China?" Further, "Are we going to have to watch another series of White House task force briefings early next year where they tell us no one could have possibly seen this coming?"

Nominal wage cuts are taking place across the income spectrum.

Timothy Taylor takes a closer look at pharmaceutical markets.

"The value of our cattle went down over 35% just since the virus hit."

Social Security insolvency is getting too close for comfort.

If inflation isn't the key worry, what is?
 Plus, George Selgin notes "the return of the inflation mongers".

Tim Duy stresses how it is still a long road ahead.

What makes this crisis different than the last? Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway interview Adam Tooze (Bloomberg)

The business model for primary care doctors is becoming unexpectedly fragile.
Community colleges also have a long list of pandemic concerns.

Prison testing highlights the true extent of asymptomatic spread.

How might the pandemic ultimately affect crime?

Retail may be radically changed.

"wealthy hospitals...are in a competitive stampede against near-insolvent hospitals for the same limited pots of financial relief."

Globalization continues to provide tremendous benefits for the medical field.

Claudia Sahm stresses the severity of the coronavirus recession.

Kevin Kelly offers "68 bits of unsolicited advice" for his 68th birthday.

"The surprising truth is that people tend to behave decently in a crisis."

While there has been plenty of sad news this month, this last link is encouraging. It may not be as easy for the virus to reactivate as we initially thought.

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