Wrap Up for February 2023

What might happen if the debt ceiling disaster can't be averted?

While the labour market remains overheated, excessive wage expectations aren't entrenched, and that makes a "hard landing" less likely.

California could finally be making progress with more accessible housing.

Building cost trends are headed in an unfortunate direction.

Highlights of a recent NBER paper, and Brookings notes: 

Julian di Giovanni of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and co-authors estimate the impact government spending had on inflation between December 2019 and June 2022. According to the authors, the surge in aggregate demand generated two-thirds of recent headline inflation. Of this, fiscal stimulus accounted for roughly half of the total increase in aggregate demand. Sectoral supply shocks, measured as deviations in the total hours worked, and sectoral demand shocks, measured as deviations in consumer spending, also contributed to overall inflation.

Some national growth predictions in GDP.

The latest job numbers are anything but recessionary, to say the least.

India could still become quite a success story.

After remote workers left, rural housing costs remained high.

Some real wage declines in the last three years.

Velocity is an important part of monetary policy that is often missed.

Global inflation will still run high in 2023. also what countries have lower inflation? 

The White House is keeping a close watch on services inflation.

Many jobs don't even need the skills sets that are taught in college, which is especially true for the care of young children.

How to respond to an economy that remains stronger than expected?

Are central bankers becoming less independent over time?

Matthew Klein's interview with Jonathan Haskel.

How does fiscal dominance affect rising interest rates? For David Beckworth, a continuing theme.

Some predictions for near future fertility by country.

How might supply side constraints be framed?

Tim Harford worries about "chronic economic disease" in the UK.

Some fiscal considerations regarding inflation.

How have automakers adapted to fuel saving technologies?

What were the Dutch doing better than the English?

Nearly half of Texas hospitals are operating in the red.

The pandemic is unexpectedly coming back to bite on used car prices.

How much have house prices really gone up since 1970? This chart is astounding.

"...the Fed desperately doesn't want to get caught in the crossfire of one of the bitterest economic struggles of modern history."

States are benefiting from unprecedented rainy day funds.

World War 2 was not as good for the economy as it may have seemed.

Modular is still the way to go for building in the future.

A discussion of the paper "Managing Disinflations".

Plastic asphalt slows pothole formation and also helps to resist rainwater. Plus, some plastics innovation is occurring below the road surface.

Fiscal policy has its own effects on inflation.

What accounts for Starbucks latte price differences by country?

Too many of the same obstacles to land development are still in place.