The Atlanta Fed notes that for every ten layoffs, three new hires also occurred.
"How did COVID-19 disrupt the market for U.S. Treasury debt?"
Tim Duy argues for a coordinated public health effort.
It would be quite a mistake for MMT to ignore the demand for base money.
Will rural Texas hospitals and clinics survive COVID-19?
Policymakers can't afford to extend the emergency too long.
"More equity financing, less leverage, and abolishing tax debt subsidies" would be a good start.
Adam Tooze talks finance, past and future, with Tyler Cowen.
COVID-19 as a reallocation shock.
Rising wages aren't a good thing in this recession.
"What have we learned here?" Morgan Housel also writes, "No business model or investing strategy is proven until it survives a calamity." That said: In a recent post I should have referred to business models which welcome low income consumers, as capable of being recession resistant, rather than recession proof.
The pandemic has created additional burdens for physicians.
Of late in the U.S. only heart disease has killed more people than COVID-19.
Faced with clear risks, we still fail to act.
Lars Christensen is confident that employment levels in the U.S. should improve greatly by fall.
Branko Milanovic discusses his new book with Russ Roberts.
Instead of rationing public spaces, why not create more spaces which make room for shared social functions.
What form might a more activist state take?
Could the pandemic bring about positive change?
"50 Ideas that changed my life."
"Martin Hellwig on the Recent German Constitutional Court Ruling and its Potential Eurozone Implications"
U.S. federal research spending is at its lowest level in 60 years.
Emerging markets are going to need more effective debt management.
Identity has become too closely correlated with economic value.
"Our estimates indicate that a 10 minute increase in commuting decreases the probability of married women to participate in the labor market by 4.6 percentage points."
Housing will be a big concern in the near future.
Alex Danco reviews Debt: the First 5000 Years
Were it not for inflationary distributional struggles, monetary policy would not be so political.
And, monetary policy has proven increasingly political, given the realities of the pandemic.
Tim Harford suggests Humankind as definitely worth the read.
Jobs which presently can be salvaged, also tend to be the ones which are higher paid.
Sometimes a roadmap runs short of its destination.
Some positive developments for nurse practitioners.
Shifting realities in what middle class lifestyles still offer.
Paul Romer continues an earlier conversation with Tyler Cowen.
If low density boosters are correct, what happens to suburbia and the countryside?
Both Alberto Alesina and Oliver Williamson took political and economic frictions seriously.
More on Alesina:
He knew "where the big ideas were".
He changed how "scholars study the interactions between politics and economics".
Edward Glaeser remembers his colleague and friend of 28 years.
"A free-spirited economist"
Larry Summers remembers Alesina.
Concerns about "the collapse of independent primary care".
"Deviations from the Neutral Level of NGDP."
Can we maintain a stable economic level in the months ahead?
"...a Darwinian moment for trends."
"Despite countless examples around the U.S. of individual courage and sacrifice, the failure is national."
"Fiscal space has limits, too" At a minimum, what does debt sustainability require?
Sunday, May 31, 2020
Wednesday, May 27, 2020
When Monetary Representation Becomes Fragile
Can monetary policy retain a stable and relatively constant level (near to mid term), given the uncertainties of the pandemic? Since this most recent recession began with extensive supply side disruptions - subsequently impacting aggregate demand - no one knows for certain. However, even though the Fed has yet to adopt NGDPLT, the Mercatus center has created a new measure called the NGDP Gap, which among other things will highlight nominal income stability. This new measure could help people determine how closely the Fed adheres to representing economic activity without undue gaps or changes in valuation.
Nevertheless, overall monetary representation may remain somewhat fragile in the years ahead, even if central bankers adhere to an optimal course. Only consider how prior to the pandemic, monetary policy became compromised by structurally uneven equilibrium coordination between tradable and non tradable sectors. The latter is more prone to price making than the former. Plus, they represent human capital in highly different ways which have yet to be fully accounted for. By way of example, the marginal revolution which is so important to tradable sector activity, is less a determinant of economic outcomes in non tradable sector activity. Ultimately, better defined economic roles are needed for all human capital, before non tradable sector activity ceases to detract from equilibrium balance and optimal monetary representation.
Extensive price making in non tradable sectors tends to compromise aggregate output, which in turn makes it difficult to align aggregate output with a stable nominal income trajectory. Since price taking involves better coordination of all resource capacity, it has proven simpler for monetary policy to represent tradable sector output, during long periods of relative tradable sector dominance. However, once general equilibrium is dominated by price making outcomes, assets tend to experience additional pressure as well. As asset values rise, some become convinced that monetary policy is too "loose", even though this actually may not be the case. Rather, when full economic participation is limited to subsets of given populations, the consequent output reductions impose higher prices elsewhere, thus making it appear to some that monetary policy has become too expansionary. In short, monetary policy may struggle to contribute to optimal aggregate output, once price making becomes dominant in general equilibrium.
Fortunately, this sectoral imbalance could be addressed through a broader interpretation of human potential in the marketplace - one which includes more price taking for time value in equilibrium context. By bringing greater economic value to all human capital potential, we could also do much to stabilize monetary representation. A better representation of aggregate time value, would make it simpler for a level nominal target to serve as a reliable snapshot or historical memory of economic value. Toward this end, the adaptation of time use potential as a valid economic unit, might help to restore money to its vital role in defined economic wealth and value.
Further, time use as an expression of economic value, creates more space for a wide range of maintenance functions which otherwise become limited in mature economies, as budgets are strained by competing objectives. Time arbitrage would not only preserve time value for society as a whole, it could contribute to maintenance activities involving a broad spectrum of knowledge and skill, so as to better preserve already existing wealth.
Nevertheless, overall monetary representation may remain somewhat fragile in the years ahead, even if central bankers adhere to an optimal course. Only consider how prior to the pandemic, monetary policy became compromised by structurally uneven equilibrium coordination between tradable and non tradable sectors. The latter is more prone to price making than the former. Plus, they represent human capital in highly different ways which have yet to be fully accounted for. By way of example, the marginal revolution which is so important to tradable sector activity, is less a determinant of economic outcomes in non tradable sector activity. Ultimately, better defined economic roles are needed for all human capital, before non tradable sector activity ceases to detract from equilibrium balance and optimal monetary representation.
Extensive price making in non tradable sectors tends to compromise aggregate output, which in turn makes it difficult to align aggregate output with a stable nominal income trajectory. Since price taking involves better coordination of all resource capacity, it has proven simpler for monetary policy to represent tradable sector output, during long periods of relative tradable sector dominance. However, once general equilibrium is dominated by price making outcomes, assets tend to experience additional pressure as well. As asset values rise, some become convinced that monetary policy is too "loose", even though this actually may not be the case. Rather, when full economic participation is limited to subsets of given populations, the consequent output reductions impose higher prices elsewhere, thus making it appear to some that monetary policy has become too expansionary. In short, monetary policy may struggle to contribute to optimal aggregate output, once price making becomes dominant in general equilibrium.
Fortunately, this sectoral imbalance could be addressed through a broader interpretation of human potential in the marketplace - one which includes more price taking for time value in equilibrium context. By bringing greater economic value to all human capital potential, we could also do much to stabilize monetary representation. A better representation of aggregate time value, would make it simpler for a level nominal target to serve as a reliable snapshot or historical memory of economic value. Toward this end, the adaptation of time use potential as a valid economic unit, might help to restore money to its vital role in defined economic wealth and value.
Further, time use as an expression of economic value, creates more space for a wide range of maintenance functions which otherwise become limited in mature economies, as budgets are strained by competing objectives. Time arbitrage would not only preserve time value for society as a whole, it could contribute to maintenance activities involving a broad spectrum of knowledge and skill, so as to better preserve already existing wealth.
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Basic Living Needs are Important for Long Term Growth
A quick economic recovery may prove more likely, if society does not neglect market potential for lower income levels. These markets tend to be built around basic needs as well. While I normally advocate for long term structural reform for low income levels, productive short term responses are equally important. If one isn't convinced this form of market representation really matters, only consider how companies such Dollar General and Walmart continue to prosper in pandemic times. These corporations share a similarity of willingness to provide for the needs of low income groups. Why can't more business models assume a similar useful approach?
It's not difficult to envision how market potential could be tapped, for basic needs in non tradable sector capacity. Indeed, entrepreneurs who are willing to invest along these lines, might also gain recession proof models as their reward. In particular, better market solutions are needed for low income groups which already faced substantial housing issues before the pandemic. How might one consider business possibilities for these groups?
For one, mobility strategies are key. Nevertheless, clear usage models or patterns are necessary, to prevent confusion with business strategies geared toward middle to high income levels. An apt example re the latter, is standard RV park rental costs, not to mention the expense of purchasing recreational vehicles or other transportation heavy enough to tow camper trailers. Fortunately, there's a wide range of amenities in RV and camper markets which could be made more accessible for lower income levels, by making their manufacture more portable and less dependent on expensive infrastructure or transportation.
Why hasn't RV living provided reasonable options for lower income levels already? A Google search result concerning RV park costs (and posted in 2014), illustrates how this market has been mostly out of reach of low income levels for some time:
Nevertheless, one challenge for low income market representation, is the understandable safety concerns on the part of communities which hesitate to provide temporary residence for low income groups. Because of these concerns, when land use is permanently altered with the appropriate physical infrastructure, often the only way business proposals for RV parks can get through, is by convincing communities that only financially secure consumers (middle and upper class) will be allowed. This is an important reason why lower income levels have lacked sufficient access to many living options which would otherwise be more affordable than traditional housing.
Perhaps the most feasible way to overcome this impasse, would be to seek out land where portable physical infrastructure can be brought in, rather than imposing permanent land alterations on reluctant communities. As to RV parks and similar arrangements, what about empty parking lots where big box stores and malls are no longer functional? Portable infrastructure mobile units could be trucked in, allowing entrepreneurs and communities to experiment with trial periods to discover whether proposed operations can prove suitable for all involved. Since safety issues would be carefully observed during these trial periods, some of the inclination to disallow low income groups could be overcome.
There are multiple options for what might be tapped on site or else trucked in. In some instances, local electrical, water and sewer connections may still be operational. In other instances, parks could cater to people without RVs by bringing in trucks containing portable showers, toilets, kitchen amenities, and even platforms where building components are configured for sturdy yet temporary shelters.
Such possibilities could also improve economic access to cities and regions where housing markets have been restrained in recent decades. Plus, these suggested business arrangements for underutilized properties, might ultimately help alleviate much of the hidden homelessness which now exists.
It's not difficult to envision how market potential could be tapped, for basic needs in non tradable sector capacity. Indeed, entrepreneurs who are willing to invest along these lines, might also gain recession proof models as their reward. In particular, better market solutions are needed for low income groups which already faced substantial housing issues before the pandemic. How might one consider business possibilities for these groups?
For one, mobility strategies are key. Nevertheless, clear usage models or patterns are necessary, to prevent confusion with business strategies geared toward middle to high income levels. An apt example re the latter, is standard RV park rental costs, not to mention the expense of purchasing recreational vehicles or other transportation heavy enough to tow camper trailers. Fortunately, there's a wide range of amenities in RV and camper markets which could be made more accessible for lower income levels, by making their manufacture more portable and less dependent on expensive infrastructure or transportation.
Why hasn't RV living provided reasonable options for lower income levels already? A Google search result concerning RV park costs (and posted in 2014), illustrates how this market has been mostly out of reach of low income levels for some time:
Overnight campsite and RV park fees with hookups typically range from $30 to $50 per night or more. That is $900 to $1500 per month. However a lot of full timers avoid paying anywhere near that much and average closer to $500 to $900 per month.Alas, good luck finding suitable camps close to one's work on the lower end of this range! Since transportation costs make additional demands on small monthly wages and fixed income, many individuals end up living in their vehicles while furtively seeking places to park overnight for no charge. This reality needs to be changed.
Nevertheless, one challenge for low income market representation, is the understandable safety concerns on the part of communities which hesitate to provide temporary residence for low income groups. Because of these concerns, when land use is permanently altered with the appropriate physical infrastructure, often the only way business proposals for RV parks can get through, is by convincing communities that only financially secure consumers (middle and upper class) will be allowed. This is an important reason why lower income levels have lacked sufficient access to many living options which would otherwise be more affordable than traditional housing.
Perhaps the most feasible way to overcome this impasse, would be to seek out land where portable physical infrastructure can be brought in, rather than imposing permanent land alterations on reluctant communities. As to RV parks and similar arrangements, what about empty parking lots where big box stores and malls are no longer functional? Portable infrastructure mobile units could be trucked in, allowing entrepreneurs and communities to experiment with trial periods to discover whether proposed operations can prove suitable for all involved. Since safety issues would be carefully observed during these trial periods, some of the inclination to disallow low income groups could be overcome.
There are multiple options for what might be tapped on site or else trucked in. In some instances, local electrical, water and sewer connections may still be operational. In other instances, parks could cater to people without RVs by bringing in trucks containing portable showers, toilets, kitchen amenities, and even platforms where building components are configured for sturdy yet temporary shelters.
Such possibilities could also improve economic access to cities and regions where housing markets have been restrained in recent decades. Plus, these suggested business arrangements for underutilized properties, might ultimately help alleviate much of the hidden homelessness which now exists.
Thursday, May 14, 2020
Intentional Market Design and Economic Freedom
Of late, many libertarians have been understandably concerned about temporary losses of freedom to congregate with others, due to the pandemic. However, this is no time to neglect the additional burdens we face due to excess regulatory environments, for over regulation could also affect society's ability to fully recover in the long term.
Only recall, how limits to personal freedom extend well beyond the social and the political. When essential product is defined so as to incur unnecessary costs, many of us lose the chance to make the best use of our time priorities. In other words, some aspects of market design include hidden intentions which in turn reduce our level of economic freedom. Indeed, some of today's regulatory burdens could limit our ability to live meaningful lives, if they are not addressed soon enough to help us meet our financial obligations to others in the near term.
As jobs continue to be lost and societies struggle to maintain their financial obligations, we need a response which takes both short and long term structural issues into account. Ultimately, the best way to reduce near future financial obligations, is to set about reducing the costs of the structural burdens they were based upon. Production reform would make doing so a distinct possibility. As things currently stand, structural burdens now create excessive financial obligations for public and private interests alike, and pandemic circumstance exacerbates this reality.
We know that many problems which seemingly emerged overnight, nevertheless aren't going away any time soon. Importantly, a longer term approach is needed - one which also expands ownership potential and economic participation by simplifying a wide range of supply side structural issues. That said, how to determine what kinds of regulations stand in the way? Clearly, some forms of regulations are benign and often beneficial, especially when standardization procedures also encourage exponential growth in supply side output. Commodification which results in broad economic access and reasonably well met demand, is an example of positive procedural standardization.
However, many procedural regulations aren't intended to bolster supply side capacity, especially when exponential growth in output is not an option due to natural scarcities of time and place. Too many non tradable sector regulations impose limits on (already scarce) time and space linked product, instead. Some public and private institutions intentionally hide what supply side limits are actually intended to accomplish on their behalf. These forms of intentional market design often disallow basic product such as housing or time based service options. Hence producers and consumers alike end up with excessive time commitments when no other choices are available - scarce time which otherwise might have been put to more productive ends.
Even though hidden intentions in market design aren't the most obvious feature of existing inequalities, they tend to result in more debilitating circumstance for lower income levels than other forms of inequality. Consider for example, how neither basic income (as generally promoted) or Social Security income is truly capable of addressing today's non tradable sector requirements for basic needs. Yet if basic income were eventually enacted alongside Social Security, millions more individuals would have little else in the way of resources to meet their obligations. It's time to bring more of the hidden intentions for market design out into the open, so that markets can become simpler and more accessible for producers and consumers alike.
Fortunately, it is quite feasible to create more flexible patterns for personal ownership and economic participation. It is also possible to reclaim the value of our time, so we can pursue more of what makes life meaningful and productive. Only yesterday, some were arguing how society had become too complacent for productive change to materialize. Yet we no longer have the luxury of remaining complacent. Perhaps we can respond to crisis by turning it to a better future for all concerned. Why not reorient intentional market design toward more benign forms, so that all can benefit from greater economic freedom.
Only recall, how limits to personal freedom extend well beyond the social and the political. When essential product is defined so as to incur unnecessary costs, many of us lose the chance to make the best use of our time priorities. In other words, some aspects of market design include hidden intentions which in turn reduce our level of economic freedom. Indeed, some of today's regulatory burdens could limit our ability to live meaningful lives, if they are not addressed soon enough to help us meet our financial obligations to others in the near term.
As jobs continue to be lost and societies struggle to maintain their financial obligations, we need a response which takes both short and long term structural issues into account. Ultimately, the best way to reduce near future financial obligations, is to set about reducing the costs of the structural burdens they were based upon. Production reform would make doing so a distinct possibility. As things currently stand, structural burdens now create excessive financial obligations for public and private interests alike, and pandemic circumstance exacerbates this reality.
We know that many problems which seemingly emerged overnight, nevertheless aren't going away any time soon. Importantly, a longer term approach is needed - one which also expands ownership potential and economic participation by simplifying a wide range of supply side structural issues. That said, how to determine what kinds of regulations stand in the way? Clearly, some forms of regulations are benign and often beneficial, especially when standardization procedures also encourage exponential growth in supply side output. Commodification which results in broad economic access and reasonably well met demand, is an example of positive procedural standardization.
However, many procedural regulations aren't intended to bolster supply side capacity, especially when exponential growth in output is not an option due to natural scarcities of time and place. Too many non tradable sector regulations impose limits on (already scarce) time and space linked product, instead. Some public and private institutions intentionally hide what supply side limits are actually intended to accomplish on their behalf. These forms of intentional market design often disallow basic product such as housing or time based service options. Hence producers and consumers alike end up with excessive time commitments when no other choices are available - scarce time which otherwise might have been put to more productive ends.
Even though hidden intentions in market design aren't the most obvious feature of existing inequalities, they tend to result in more debilitating circumstance for lower income levels than other forms of inequality. Consider for example, how neither basic income (as generally promoted) or Social Security income is truly capable of addressing today's non tradable sector requirements for basic needs. Yet if basic income were eventually enacted alongside Social Security, millions more individuals would have little else in the way of resources to meet their obligations. It's time to bring more of the hidden intentions for market design out into the open, so that markets can become simpler and more accessible for producers and consumers alike.
Fortunately, it is quite feasible to create more flexible patterns for personal ownership and economic participation. It is also possible to reclaim the value of our time, so we can pursue more of what makes life meaningful and productive. Only yesterday, some were arguing how society had become too complacent for productive change to materialize. Yet we no longer have the luxury of remaining complacent. Perhaps we can respond to crisis by turning it to a better future for all concerned. Why not reorient intentional market design toward more benign forms, so that all can benefit from greater economic freedom.
Tuesday, May 5, 2020
Education: Let's Restore Local Community Threads
Much of today's formal K-12 education, takes place quite separately from the lives of local citizens. Alas, this reality adds to the financial burdens of many small communities, where local citizens support public schools through lifelong property taxes. Even though local taxation sometimes leads to impressive school buildings and well prepared students, local circles of sustainability can still be broken, when students need to go elsewhere to put their skills to good use. What of the locals who may never gain the chance to meet these young people? What does society lose, when neither local citizens or students can benefit from what either group learns in life? How can a society sustain itself for the long run, when its knowledge based institutions seek monetary support to survive, but neglect to tap a vast abundance of human capital potential, so that all might thrive?
Clearly, our time value needs to be a greater part of the wealth equation for human capital. We could work to restore valuable community connections, especially those which promote the use of knowledge and skill for markets which otherwise tend to be in short supply. Enhancing the services productivity of all citizens is important, and all communities deserve active roles in today's knowledge based economy. Fortunately, it is within our power to realign local education, so that everyone might benefit from learning processes. Already we are seeing in a time of pandemic, how many knowledge centered institutions will struggle if they depend solely on taxation and redistribution, in the foreseeable future. Why not tap into the vast pools of human capital potential which are waiting to be unleashed?
Time arbitrage, with its reciprocal patterns of wealth generation, could provide opportunities for young learners to engage with many local citizens, particularly during their high school years. With a little luck, this approach might help heal some of today's political divisions. Plus, on a practical note, time arbitrage could lead to meaningful economic interchange, in years when students especially need resources that prepare them for adult responsibilities.
The recent COVID-19 pandemic also illustrates how students might assist others in the here and now. In particular, better communication systems are needed in small communities, so that all citizens can stay informed and up to date. One would think not much time would be necessary, before students could get digital versions of (yesterday's) local newspapers up and running. Such efforts could be readily coordinated without need for advertising revenue to keep the processes going. One immediate gain from such a project, is that small communities would be able to compile statistics about the effects of COVID-19 locally. In the meantime, they often have to rely on guesstimates according to big city statistics, for their own public health management options.
Ultimately, learning processes could be coordinated with larger cities, so that small communities become able to create a broad array of healthcare provisions. One possible pandemic response, might be for healthcare providers whose work is on temporary pause, to work with local citizens and students for the creation of local testing options and other vital assistance for those affected by COVID-19. Even though this would be a short term response, it nonetheless suggests future frameworks, by which prosperous areas might reach out to areas that were already left behind, prior to the pandemic. Given the chance, smaller communities might finally be able to realign local education, toward more productive and beneficial ends.
Clearly, our time value needs to be a greater part of the wealth equation for human capital. We could work to restore valuable community connections, especially those which promote the use of knowledge and skill for markets which otherwise tend to be in short supply. Enhancing the services productivity of all citizens is important, and all communities deserve active roles in today's knowledge based economy. Fortunately, it is within our power to realign local education, so that everyone might benefit from learning processes. Already we are seeing in a time of pandemic, how many knowledge centered institutions will struggle if they depend solely on taxation and redistribution, in the foreseeable future. Why not tap into the vast pools of human capital potential which are waiting to be unleashed?
Time arbitrage, with its reciprocal patterns of wealth generation, could provide opportunities for young learners to engage with many local citizens, particularly during their high school years. With a little luck, this approach might help heal some of today's political divisions. Plus, on a practical note, time arbitrage could lead to meaningful economic interchange, in years when students especially need resources that prepare them for adult responsibilities.
The recent COVID-19 pandemic also illustrates how students might assist others in the here and now. In particular, better communication systems are needed in small communities, so that all citizens can stay informed and up to date. One would think not much time would be necessary, before students could get digital versions of (yesterday's) local newspapers up and running. Such efforts could be readily coordinated without need for advertising revenue to keep the processes going. One immediate gain from such a project, is that small communities would be able to compile statistics about the effects of COVID-19 locally. In the meantime, they often have to rely on guesstimates according to big city statistics, for their own public health management options.
Ultimately, learning processes could be coordinated with larger cities, so that small communities become able to create a broad array of healthcare provisions. One possible pandemic response, might be for healthcare providers whose work is on temporary pause, to work with local citizens and students for the creation of local testing options and other vital assistance for those affected by COVID-19. Even though this would be a short term response, it nonetheless suggests future frameworks, by which prosperous areas might reach out to areas that were already left behind, prior to the pandemic. Given the chance, smaller communities might finally be able to realign local education, toward more productive and beneficial ends.
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