Sunday, June 30, 2019

Wrap Up for June 2019

Greg Mankiw offers six guidelines for teaching intermediate macroeconomics.

Samuel Bowles and Wendy Carlin:
"What Students Learn in Economics 101: Time For a Change"
More text book discussions here. Again, Mankiw's text is included.

Some highlights of the lead up to the trade war between China and the U.S.

Changes in employment share for non college educated, since 1970.

Norms for building space requirements have been an all too convenient way to keep out the poor.

Japan is in a pioneering position for the issues other high income economies face in the near future.

"Think of the 20th century as a high real interest rate century and the 21st century as a low real interest rate century."

Texas stood to lose the most from another round of tariffs on Mexico.

"It may also be difficult to discern a connection between markups and inflation if the Fed is pursuing monetary policy that offsets inflationary pressure from markups."

Daron Acemoglu weighs in on the UBI.

Alas, the do it yourself culture hasn't taken off as I'd hoped!

There's a movement afoot to regain more open access.

When it comes to offerings in housing, what has replaced the company town?

"...the number of caregivers needed to keep the current prevalence of unpaid caregiving constant would have to almost double."

Jonathan Portes: "The Economics of Migration"

Fixing today's Social Security shortfall will require more extensive adjustments than were negotiated in 1983.

A growing "brain drain", across states.

Could governments finance welfare programs without imposing higher burdens on taxpayers?

"Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction"
also,
"The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand"

John Mauldin for Forbes:
"We are being forced into difficult choices, both political and economic, and the longer we kick the proverbial can down the road, not dealing with the real fundamental issues, the more difficult and starker those choices will be...That said, we need to make sure our choices don't exacerbate the problems."

"The changing structure of American innovation: some cautionary remarks for economic growth"

Joshua Henderson argues that nominal income targeting advocates have not gone far enough in their analogy with free banking possibilities.

Free market advocates no longer have a political "home".

It's sad to see the sharing of knowledge between the U.S. and China breaking down.
Nevertheless, How will the U.S. government approach AI in the near future?

Lael Brainard has become a moderating influence on the Fed.

"At a time when President Trump speaks of rebuilding American manufacturing, footwear is a telling example of how hard it is to turn back time." The good news is that with greater automation, shoemaking may begin to return to where the markets are, instead of where the labour is. As to jobs, these aren't jobs that young people want, which is increasingly true in emerging economies as well.

So long as there is support for GDP from all corners of the globe, for me the world will feel a little less fragile.

A reminder from Gregory Mankiw that national debt is still being swept under the rug.

"As investors snap up more properties, they're helping drive up prices in many cities nationwide."

"The Surreal End of an American College"

Tariffs add many additional costs for all concerned, when they involve global value chains.

Might the Phillips curve be "alive and well"?

One thing "The Economist" liked about Eric Helland and Alex Tabarrok's new book, is its suggestion that the rising cost of education and healthcare is less troubling than believed. Tabarrok was understandably happy with the review! Nevertheless, are we to believe the rising cost of education and healthcare are not troubling? Indeed, William Baumol could have believed this result a benign one for similar reasons. However, one problem lies in the fact the Baumol effect is an incomplete equilibrium in terms of time value potential which cannot be amended by governmental redistribution.

The seventies in particular were a turning point for zoning in the U.S.
"If you're a big city, you don't want people to have to drive for 15 miles for every errand. You want to keep car trips short, allow walking trips and be built in such a way that you can sort of all live together in peace. And that's not what the southern cities are doing."

Russ Roberts talks with Eric Topol about his new book Deep Medicine.

Given the fact interest spending could rise to 20 percent of all federal spending by 2049 if nothing is essentially changed, is this really the time to be adding extensive new spending programs?

Scott Sumner muses on how the next three years will play out for the Fed, and also highlights a new working paper from Robert Hetzel, Rules vs. Discretion Revisited: A Proposal to Make the Strategy of Monetary Policy Transparent

Once too many end up left behind, democratic capitalism comes under threat. (Angus Deaton)

JP Koning notes that not only is Facecbook's Libra a new way to pay, it is also a new means of monetary measurement. However, it (presently) has an "interval of certainty" problem. Nick Rowe also highlights the position Libra would (likely) hold in an alpha beta relationship.

"Place Based Drivers of Mortality: Evidence from Migration": "We estimate that equalizing health capital across places would reduce the cross-sectional variation in life expectancy by three-quarters."

Hardening political positions and no desire to compromise, are like sclerotic arteries which could lead to a heart attack for Western democracies. (Tim Harford)

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