Friday, September 30, 2022

Wrap Up for September 2022

Technology has shaped our world in many ways.

Some reflections from Giles Wilkes on policy advice.

Just as there are missing markets in housing and healthcare, the same is true for legal assistance.

Globalization touched many things, but it skipped cleaner forms of energy.

"Basing our wealth on housing is dysfunctional."

Idea processing and total factor productivity.

What determines inflation expectations?

The world's most important values in a graphic illustration.

Intangible capital doesn't always mean productive economic complexity.

"Implications of additive growth"

Noah Smith makes the case for robots and automation.

Some top economics papers.

Congress may not do anything to repair Social Security until the trust fund actually runs dry.

Work is about more than just pay for hours worked.

Why doesn't building size contribute more to economies of scale?

Job vacancies as a key factor for core inflation.

A rising dollar will have global consequence.

Unemployment may need to rise well about 4.1 percent to sufficiently lower inflation.

There are times when solidarity really matters.

Do statistics tell us how many books have sold? It's complicated.

What if the rich world isn't open to generating the new institutional arrangements that it needs?

The untapped potential of mobile housing.

Rising crime could set back efforts to promote greater housing density.

Scott Sumner discusses his upcoming book with David Beckworth, and also his retirement from Mercatus.

An inflation update from Noah Smith.

The World Bank considers the possibility of global recession.

Our economic future has much to do with human capital.

What countries still have monarchies, and how do they function?

Even the insured tend to carry medical debt, which in turn can exacerbate poor life circumstance.

Donald Kohn reviews Scott Sumner's The Money Illusion. Scott Sumner responds.

It helps to start career planning early.

"Who are the winners and losers from inflation?"

An enlightening discussion regarding the importance of fiscal dominance, and more.

Inflation in 14 charts.

Russ Roberts talks with Raj Chetty about economic mobility.

"Long-Run Trends in Long-Maturity Real Rates 1311-2021"

Macroeconomics should be approached from multiple perspectives.

Mancur Olson on distributional coalitions.

Why aren't women better represented in central banking?

What Marxists and libertarians have in common.

Can maintenance stand on its own, outside of austerity?

A closer look at the U.S. services sector.

There's plenty of subjectivity in measuring living standards.

Sunday, September 25, 2022

Are Charter Cities a Possibility for Migrants?

What if nations sought to create new cities instead of camps for the ever growing numbers of migrant refugees? A recent article for Brookings suggests this policy option, and the authors explain:

Charter cities are new urban developments that have been granted special jurisdiction to create their own governance systems. Clearly defined legal frameworks, good governance, efficient distribution of public goods, and modern infrastructure could support well-functioning markets and attract investments to generate higher rates of economic growth in charter cities. Based on these principles, we propose to establish sustainable charter cities-in-exile (SCCEs) as a policy framework for host countries and international development organizations to promote refugees' self-reliance and facilitate their integration. The proposal supplements existing migration policies, especially in areas of identified procedural and logistical bottlenecks, and supports refugees in their freedom of choice of migration destinations.

In some ways I find this proposal impractical, given the difficulties involved. One can only imagine the political battles that would ensue in the U.S. were policy makers to suggest something similar. Yet some nations may prove more willing to address these issues, which accounts for a response from The Global Eye.

It is clear that we all want legal and regulated immigration but the issue is highly complex and is characterized by growing complexity.

Still, their response to the Brookings article considers the possibilities:

It seems to us a viable prospect for a phenomenon that, politically, has been reduced to an invasion and a threat. Without changing perspective, politics will continue to deny the structural nature of the phenomenon and only aggravates its consequences.

My biggest concern in all this, is the extent to which economic complexity is starting to limit what traditional institutions can successfully coordinate for services and infrastructure, especially in areas which lack wealth sources. Granted, a century earlier, even individual private companies (as one example) could still manage the services and infrastructure involved for company towns, but larger versions today would be no easy feat. Alas, only consider the difficulties private companies in the U.S. encounter today, if they attempt to provide affordable healthcare for their employees.

Indeed, the serendipitous interaction between primary and secondary markets in the most prosperous regions, largely accounts for the economic dynamism of our present. However many knowledge providers are reluctant to settle in regions which come up short in this regard. Considered in this light, what these charter cities need to generate could be difficult. More specifically, "sustainable cities-in-exile" (SCCE's) would 

seek to provide refugees with a place of safety, an immediately available assistance network, and an accelerated path towards professional and income opportunities. A guarantor country or group of countries would enforce the SCCE's charter while guaranteeing the safety of private sector investments and firms, including those from the country of origin with temporary headquarters-in-exile. A proper institutional architecture guaranteed and monitored by national governments and international guarantors, with direct involvement of the refugees and local communities, would help to reduce the risks of crime, human rights abuses, and sexual exploitation.

While these are worthy goals, who would fund the traditional institutions required to make it all happen? It's this same lack of funding for vital traditional institutions here, which leaves many citizens without basic amenities in rural and underdeveloped areas. For that matter, a recent Washington Post article highlights how American territories are losing population in similar ways. 

At stake in all this, are distributional scarcities and limitations in some of our most important institutions, particularly those representative of secondary markets for applied knowledge. I believe that in order for new cities to happen, people will need stronger connections with direct forms of wealth creation and applied knowledge systems. Otherwise, many newcomers would remain dependent on the assistance of institutions already unable to meet the needs of local citizens. Chances are, the problems of immigration won't be so severe, once applied knowledge institutions evolve to allow skills participation for all individuals. After all, many nations would be more open to immigration, if their own citizens could participate in applied knowledge networks as well. 

Sunday, September 18, 2022

Experiential Markets Versus Personal Management in Healthcare

Healthcare in the U.S. is a prime example of missing markets for lower income groups. Nevertheless, more than costs are at stake, since other income groups with greater access to healthcare are still dubious about its actual value. Texas ranks highest in limited healthcare access, where in recent years the uninsured are approximately 17 to 18 percent of its population. I am among them since Medicare in the U.S. (which is gradually transitioning to private insurance) is becoming more costly and less predictable for retirees - regardless of income. However, once I retired, I started setting aside money every six months in the event of future healthcare emergencies, rather than paying Medicare premiums.

For many healthcare consumers, careful budgetary responsibility means a high level of frugality regarding any kind of professional assistance. People still believe that healthcare is important, but some of what is missing now, is a matter of regretful consumer choice. How is any of this rational? Two issues in particular stand out: What have people come to expect in terms of healthcare, and how have those expectations fallen so short of the mark? Even though much healthcare dialogue is framed in terms of costs, the very nature of personal interchange in healthcare activity is crucial as well. 

Meanwhile, many individuals increasingly take a personal management approach to healthcare, in hopes of successfully addressing whatever problems might arise. While this approach can be successful, it does has good and bad aspects. The good - of course - is increased personal responsibility for one's own health prospects. The bad? Alas, there are moments in life when it's not feasible to arrive at a clear diagnosis. Worse, there are emergency situations when we are in no position to tend to ourselves without assistance from others. Yet not all nations are fully committed to this elusive ideal of mutual assistance, or even the importance of community in general. Unfortunately, both happen to be the case in the U.S. Hence we are approaching the point where there is insufficient monetary support for healthcare's existing institutions. As the reality of this starts to sink in for healthcare professionals, perhaps they will eventually try new approaches for the preservation and use of vital knowledge - at least one can hope. 

Personal healthcare management is an unalloyed plus. For one thing, consumers and patients have far more time to dedicate to preventative maintenance than do physicians. Also, there's no "one size fits all" for decision making in applied knowledge. Each individual is unique in their personal makeup and approach. Likewise, consumers can maintain personal healthcare histories, and at the very least, AI might be able to do so in the near future. After all, AI is not subject to the same time scarcity constraints as are healthcare professionals. Also, as patients age, they tend to devote much more time to healthcare self management than is generally necessary in one's younger years. In all of this however, traditional media can feel insulting when reporters and journalists stress the dangers of self diagnosis and personal care outside the attention of professional physicians.

If only personal management were enough to take care of healthcare issues. Instead, sometimes our survival depends on the help of others, even if we cannot afford it or worse, end up belittled by the processes involved. For instance, several years ago, an ambulance crew convinced my father to ride to the hospital after a bleeding episode to make sure everything was okay, only for my father to be berated by the physician who complained his time had been wasted. Instances such as this are why people think twice about help in dangerous situations, since one seldom knows whether mutual respect is feasible. People would likely feel better about mutual assistance as taxpayer obligation, had societal skill levels not become so extremely unbalanced. There will be no institutional reform, if possibilities for mutual respect aren't somehow restored. 

Finding better balance in skills levels between individuals, means finding ways to make our time value economic in markets for time based services. How do we create mutual interdependence which is also economic in nature? I get that physicians and other healthcare providers no longer have sufficient time for their patients. In all fairness to healthcare providers, healthcare today shares similar time product scarcities with other secondary markets for applied knowledge. The biggest problem in this regard, are situations which call for mutual time based interaction, yet too few groups in society are able to effectively coordinate the skills involved. Further, additional layers of management in too many instances, cannot make up for time scarcities in crucial skills. Instead, excess management often adds needless complexities and costs, not to mention lowered ability for providers and recipients to find reciprocity in their interactions.

Without direct relationships in time based assistance, societies are losing their ability to effectively manage the demand and supply of time based product in the marketplace. These losses could explain much of society's current dissatisfaction with its existing institutions. Despite this disillusionment, getting down to specifics regarding how to move forward in common purpose, is proving to be the hardest part. Neither experts or laypeople are in a suitable position to implement institutional evolution in the 21st century. 

Though this is one time when solutions are not about "appropriate" credentials, even professionals tend to be criticized when they step out of their immediate domain of expertise. In this environment, how is it even possible for outsiders to be taken seriously? As it turns out, social media gives plenty of permissions for wide ranging complaints regarding why things go wrong, whatever that may be. What social media hasn't been willing to do, and what particularly disappoints me, is its lack of online promotion for suggestions as to how problems can be addressed. We simply can't can't afford to hide anymore from the specific hows of institutional change, despite the fact they are unbelievably difficult and frustrating to confront. For a while, I'd also become reluctant to write about how. But I can't hide my head in the sand any longer.

Monday, September 12, 2022

Inflation Relief Can't Address the Missing Market Divide

Despite what investors and others have hoped for, it's possible the Fed could continue with a 75 basis point increase after September. Hence some are asking, isn't the worst inflation behind us? After all, consumers seem to be fairly confident. And what of potential "fallout" from additional employment losses the Fed would impose?

Admittedly, personal perspective affects the framing of these circumstance. Even though low income groups can't readily contribute to monetary debates, many (such as myself) are even more affected by market gaps now, than was the case a year and a half earlier. Doubtless, others like me would argue for continued tightening on the part of the Fed, if they could. 

The Fed's job has become more difficult than before, since nominal income expectations started getting out of hand last fall. There's even some partiality towards higher than normal nominal income levels, but chances are these advocates don't have to worry about being priced of home ownership. Yet home ownership possibilities continue to slip away for low income groups. Unfortunately, thus far, few communities are reaching out with more forgiving accommodations in land use for manufactured housing and modular homes.

Even so, there's more at stake than missing housing markets. The higher transportation costs of missing auto production, doubtless contributes to rising income demands from low income groups. Both these in turn lead to employers paying more for the staff they are still able to hire. If these issue weren't enough, protectionism remains a structural problem for use of applied knowledge in lower income groups.

Missing markets particularly lead to losses in economic freedom for millions of individuals. It's this lack of participation in what are basic forms of production and consumption, which makes it difficult for low income groups to (productively) make their voices heard. Is it any wonder when supply side reform proves intimidating, how attempts for economic inclusion and participation get rerouted into cultural battles instead? Unfortunately, some free market proponents are migrating to these cultural battles, whenever supply side innovation for basic markets seems too daunting to pursue.

Missing markets leave unaddressed supply side issues which force the Fed to walk a fine line for appropriate monetary representation. Clearly, citizens need the inflation relief which central bankers strive to provide. Nevertheless, even the best that can be done seems hardly enough, for the Fed catches blame and undue expectations for problems that aren't their responsibility. I find it frustrating when market observers take this route as an excuse to shirk their own responsibilities. In particular, even the most appropriate inflation measures and relief can't address the missing market divide for low income groups. Only supply side production reform for domestic markets in housing and services can accomplish this! Alas, Fed responsibility for price stability does not equate to stability in basic market access. For this reason, there is only so much the Fed can do about political stability as well.

What does the Fed need to accomplish for nominal income (including hours worked) and output to maintain stable levels over time? Adhering to a stable nominal level in the present, will gradually mean less insistence and reliance on price making, beyond what originating wealth sources can fully support. In other words, societies need to practice applied knowledge in ways that no longer distort general equilibrium or lead to further income imbalances. A more rational approach is needed for knowledge based services, which provides more economic participation, not to mention economic freedoms. Granted, the Fed can't make full monetary representation possible for all comers in our dependent secondary markets. But there are ways to overcome this problem and it's time to get started.

Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Wrap Up for August 2022

Computers are very powerful, but only up to a point. "If the future is not like the past, then Big Data doesn't help you."

This visual of the necessary income to buy a home in cities across the U.S. really puts things into perspective.

What if the housing shortage is even more extensive than it appears?

Most U.S. natural gas goes to domestic consumption.

Disasters have become much more costly.

Mexico did a lot of things right. So why isn't it faring better?

David McCullough was an exceptional storyteller.

The recent JEP issue includes papers on both intangible and human capital.

Do people feel they have enough money for their purposes? Inflation can destroy how this gets framed in our minds.

How long do mined metals circulate in the economy before they are lost?

Can job creation be encouraged in distressed places?

"The Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Rate Shocks"

Core services inflation is once again becoming dominant.

He wants to produce electric vehicles which do not require rare earth magnets.

Despite all that has come to pass, the dollar remains resilient.

Even the stagnation of the seventies wasn't as substantial as it may have seemed.

A review of Gender and the Dismal Science.

Societies haven't really had time to adjust to an age of abundance.

High inflation brings considerable emotional costs.

How the Fed uses monetary policy tools.

Noah Smith contemplates the linear nature of total factor productivity (and more).

Some rational thinking from Tim Harford on abortion.

Encouraging stronger energy markets is about eventual inflation reduction. 

"Four reasons why GDP is a useful number."

What does Trumpism really tell us about today's U.S. citizens? 

Making homes from recycled plastics.

Carola Binder discusses the importance of inflation expectations.

Plenty of uncertainties regarding the Texas power grid.

England's non-Covid excess mortality.

What does real estate investment actually consist of?

England's emergency healthcare response is stretched far too thin.

What actually accounts for the majority of household debt? 

Why have GDP and GDI diverged? Some possibilities.

"We need better models of aggregate supply." Also, her presentation for Jackson Hole. 

Living with climate change when moving isn't an option.

The U.S. isn't known for soft landings or mini-recessions.

"A new era of volatility"

Medicare is increasingly provided via private insurance.

Additional friction to Russia's war machine was the main point.

Saturday, August 27, 2022

Incentives Matter for Continuous Procedural Maintenance

As economies gradually become more complex, basic structural maintenance grows more complicated also. Yet the maintenance of our lives, physical environments and knowledge structures is perceived as economic burden, and societies now lack sustainable market structure in crucial areas. During cycles of primary market dominance, societies come to rely on continuous procedural maintenance through monetary and non monetary means. Now however, some of what we've relied on for full maintenance capacity, has been lost. This is particularly true for the use of knowledge in society. 

Just the same, maintenance needs don't go away, and we need new thought processes which can recreate reliable continuance. Doing so means the transformation of our dependent (or secondary) markets, as these areas especially lack incentive to maintain societal stability through monetary compensation alone. In all this, governments are increasingly pressured to minimize fiscal burdens in the use of applied knowledge and skill. We have already seen how procedural maintenance is perceived as taxpayer burden, as political groups now seek to undo the institutions of knowledge and action with nothing sustainable to take their place.

Private enterprise also lacks incentive to make full use of applied knowledge, especially if doing so is perceived as a problem for profit maximization. This isn't good news for societies in the years ahead, since more effective use of knowledge is needed to overcome numerous obstacles to continued progress. These are just some of the reasons I've advocated for time arbitrage commitment as an economic unit of value, to supplement crucial maintenance where monetary compensation so often falls short.

Nevertheless, some reluctance on the part of governments and private enterprise, is understandable. After all, various interest groups have been notorious for creating maintenance "requirements" which are basically about profit making opportunities, instead of true systemic support. Despite the fact faux maintenance isn't often immediately obvious, it occurs routinely in the knowledge based demands of healthcare, education, finance and legal professions. As these additional costs accrue across the spectrum, it only gets more difficult for people, governments and businesses alike to preserve their efforts in society. 

Unproductive forms of economic complexity increasingly dominate our redistribution flows. If this weren't enough, the recent cultural battles leave more productive forms of economic complexity on shaky ground. Clearly, too many economic incentives haven't been well aligned for basic maintenance needs. Indeed, a major part of what makes it difficult to maintain productive economic complexity over long periods, is that societies tend to downplay the very activities which conserve valuable patterns of production. How might this be changed?

Thursday, August 4, 2022

The Fragility of Economic Momentum

Why do societies tend to label certain activities as "unproductive"? Or perhaps said another way, what's so special about "productive" endeavour? These questions matter in part, because they closely relate to sectors of the economy specific to equilibrium balance.

Activities considered most productive, are those which encourage further momentum and additional monetary gains. Whereas activities labeled "unproductive", regularly require other existing wealth sources for social continuity on economic terms. While some aren't convinced regarding this causation, ultimately it matters for the ability of mature economies to maintain productive economic complexity. When too many things go wrong, even the strongest economies can start to become fragile. And how can anyone really know where such tipping points exist? I believe it can't be stressed enough, how right Adam Smith was centuries earlier, to worry about the fragile nature of economic momentum. Otherwise, he might not have felt the need to describe "unproductive" activities in ways which can still offend readers of Wealth of Nations today.

Nations have always experienced political struggles regarding fiscal activity, so whatever is viewed as productive or unproductive, depends on cultural framing as well. Still: When it comes to wealth creation, "low productivity" maintenance services are necessary to preserve what people, businesses and nations build in the first place. Importantly, Adam Smith believed in the value of "unproductive" labour. For that matter he noted its worthiness in what was also a description of economic momentum: 

A man grows rich by employing a multitude of manufacturers: he grows poor, by maintaining a multitude of menial servants. The labour of the latter, however, has its value, and deserves its reward as well as the former. But the labour of the manufacturer fixes and realizes itself in some particular subject or vendible commodity, which lasts for some time at least after that labour is past. It is, as it were, a certain quantity of labour stocked and stored up to be employed, if necessary, upon some other occasion. That subject, or what is the same thing, the price of that subject, can afterwards, if necessary, put in motion a quantity of labour equal to that which had originally produced it. The labour of the menial servant, on the contrary, does not fix or realize itself in any particular subject or vendible commodity. His services generally perish in the very instant of their performance, and seldom leaves any trace or value behind them, for which an equal quantity of service could afterwards be procured.

Productivity is a macroeconomic concern, because excess resource aggregation in areas which are not direct wealth creation, can eventually pull down areas which most contribute to economic momentum. Despite the fact societies aren't directly aware of such tipping points, much depends on how populations feel in this regard. When economic momentum slows, citizens begin to feel the difficulty of getting ahead and making the most of their lives. Plus, when free markets are held back for too long, people begin to assume it is also okay to take away the freedoms of their neighbors. 

Adam Smith lived when expanding economic momentum and free markets contributed to the hopeful expectations of citizens in his time. He observed that when people felt better about their own life options, they were more willing to give consideration and respect to other citizens. 

In other words, economic dynamism made people more civilized. Whether or not our own economic times have become more fragile, we already see how people have lost some of this consideration for one another. Perhaps we could give more credit where credit is due, for the earlier freedoms we've lost in full market representation. In particular, where some forms of work are deemed "unproductive", we can assign more economic value to our own time use potential, so that ultimately, less money is necessary for those activities to take place. If we work to regain free markets for all income levels, citizens might hope again for continued progress, prosperity, and personal freedoms.