Wrap Up for March 2026

Axios provides details for the lead up to the Iran war.

Killing El Mencho wasn't as advantageous as it may have seemed.

A focus on the opening move over Tehran.

"Right to Build" could conceptually help cut through the problems of affordable housing. 

The "disappearing secretary" gives important clues about what AI is likely to do. Secretarial job losses didn't get the attention they deserved when they happened. I'm glad that's finally changed.

Why would Iran decide to use tactics that could end up framing it as the common enemy? Also, his hopes for an Abrahamic alliance.

What is it really like to be a parent?

How effective are fiscal rules for emerging market economies?

China's electricity advantage isn't quite as straightforward as it may seem.

It's important to not reason from a quantity change in housing.

Young workers of all educational levels are being left behind in the job market, and this is still a mystery.

There were considerable efforts to innovate building construction in the 1970s which ultimately failed.

A deeper aspect of what Operation Epic Fury may have been about.

When it comes to career opportunities, older workers have pulled ahead of younger workers.

Are others trustworthy and basically moral? Alas, people in the U.S. aren't so sure.

A visual for oil supply choke points around the world.

Sometimes, panic is actually what's needed to get things done.

How will the Fed respond to a supply side oil shock this time?

Data centers place heavy demands on local community resources, so it greatly matters how their benefits and risks are allocated. 

Mosquitoes and snakes account for the most deaths by far.

On March 9 Trump said the war would be over quickly. But Iran is thinking differently and the war has already expanded. Also, a missed opportunity seven months earlier.

The gender gap in education is stronger where economies are struggling.

Which states gained the most residents last year?

"the biggest disruption in oil market history"

A visual for Middle East oil production.

Iran at war may not really benefit Russia all that much.

Why not just shut down Iran's oil flow?

Song requests at piano bars have become quite diverse.

A visual for energy generation and consumption in the ten largest economies.

For the economy, there are more questions than answers right now.

Alas, Ray Dalio isn't very hopeful about the immediate future.

Drones have already completely changed warfare.

There's one way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that Trump hasn't been willing to consider.

Poland is scarcely the same country it was a generation ago.

What if the critics of the war are measuring the wrong things? 

Which states are the most and the least physically active?

USPS will have to address its fiscal crisis within the next year.

Are higher income levels actually more inclined to shoplift?

Robin Brooks takes a closer look at oil prices.

Oil price spikes aren't near as bad for the U.S. as was once the case.

Too many inflation factors are being ignored by the Fed right now. 

What makes the Gulf war such a consequential war?

A visual for global agricultural land.

Paul Krugman talks with Robin Brooks about the war.

The economic consequences may end up outlasting the Iran war.

Washington continues to ignore its looming fiscal crisis.

Many communities are simply not happy with the possibility of ICE detainees being held close by.

Robin Brooks discusses the recent oil shocks with Seth Hettena.

An interesting map for the timeline many homes were built across the U.S.

National healthcare spending has outpaced inflation to an unbelievable degree.

Lest anyone forget, NGDP still offers the same set of solutions that were possible all along. 

QE was supposed to be an important tool for the Fed. But in practice, it has proven difficult to reverse.

There is also a Saudi equation behind the war.

Here's why we can't have true walkable places in the U.S. Plus, a chart which helps explain why homelessness is so rampant.

Rural hospitals are not on the same page as citizens for expanding access to health care. And where exactly, is the buy in for "more creative means of access" taking place, other than in the imagination of policymakers? Meanwhile, there's been a recent slowdown in healthcare spending.

Where are the world's riskiest markets?

The war's near term effect on the economy is starting to come into view.

Happiness overall is still on the decline in the U.S.

Thankfully, many leaders around the world maintained their sanity when it comes to world trade.

Scott Sumner highlights how marginalism has evolved, and other observations regarding Tyler Cowen's new book.

"A move away from oil could be as powerful as the pressure to price it in other currencies."

Western and Sun Belt markets have experienced the greatest declines.

This war will eventually end. But plenty of patience is needed right now.

Arpit Gupta is one of many who continue to hope for a more abundant housing future.

At $5,000, batteries will be able to transform electrified transport.

When it comes to industrialization possibilities in emerging economies, services led growth is only part of the picture.

A visual for GDP growth since the turn of the century.

Those emergency oil stockpiles won't last long.

The Houthis are making a complex situation even more so.

As the giants became less predictable, other nations responded by becoming more economically reliable. Here's hoping the whole world will benefit from their restraint.

Wrap Up for February 2026

Kevin Warsh's dogmatic view of economic policy could keep him from closely observing the relevant data. He does appear to have more criticisms than actual solutions.

Warsh actually faces two separate confirmation hurdles.

When it comes to monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, simpler is better.

Given the housing shortages of today, what could be learned from the city planners of the nineteenth century?

A wide range of data sets is no longer available for public access.

The U.S. lost its lead in R&D spending in 2024.

What made planning work so well for nineteenth century cities?

Higher oil and gas production has actually led to further U.S. deindustrialisation. It turns out the "Dutch Disease" is still relevant.

The large-country model doesn't work all that well in explaining real-world tariff outcomes.

Even though tourism in the U.S. currently has problems, it has done remarkably well in years past.

AI isn't enough justification for lower interest rates.

Defense spending per capita puts countries in a different light.

A closer look at the AI investment boom. 

A better understanding is needed regarding the sharp decline in hiring.  Plus an update.  

Perhaps the human brain just hasn't had time, to adjust to the relatively recent world of impersonal exchange. 

Glimmers of hope: A growing recognition of supply as the real problem.

Brian Potter details specifics in U.S. construction trends (part of a longer report).

Gallop will no longer track presidential approval ratings.

Many now turn to selling blood plasma as a way to make ends meet.

The last three years have seen surprising drops in rental costs in Sun Belt markets.

Labour force participation rates have risen as of late, perhaps higher than expected.

The populist trade backlash isn't solving economic problems, it is only assigning blame.

Once the price mechanism is suppressed, chaos results. And the Harberger triangle is the least of it.

If only it weren't for the details, this would look like a Goldilocks economy.

"The systems meant to protect nature now often prevent us from restoring it."

The ECB hopes to create a greater role for its currency.

A visual for electrical power sources in North America.

"The economic case for ditching the dollar remains weak. But the political case is growing stronger."

Where do states most align with Christian nationalist beliefs?

Timothy Taylor highlights a report re how AI affects productivity and employment.

Wherever automation technology adapts to situation-specific scenarios, the production gains could be considerable.

Which crops account for the greatest worldwide production?

Even the WSJ has noted how the ultra rich are pulling away from everyone else.

What will become of Medicare Advantage, once it loses some of those government advantages?

Tariffs have not led to trade rebalancing. Instead, tariffs have led to retreat, and continue to do so.

Property tax obligations vary widely across the U.S.

People were understandably concerned that data quality might be manipulated. However, the real problem has been the neglect of investment shortfalls.

Some specifics how the Supreme Court handled Trump's tariff loss. Joseph Politano provides further details.

Oil production gains are in a good place right now.

Even though monetary policy is good at dealing with inflation, neither monetary or fiscal policies are the right tools for prices that are considered too high. 

Is hard power really the currency of the age?

USA Facts offers a more practical version of the state of the union.

Some of the data center pipeline may ultimately be delayed.

Macro Musings goes full video, and the first episode is with Raghuram Rajan.

Where is food inflation expected to increase the most this year?

Some worthwhile books on communication.

Is Europe really poorer than the U.S.?

It turns out smartphones have been saving lives.

"People care. They just need a platform to act."

A visual which aptly illustrates home buying realities.

The reaction to Citrini was overblown.

Even though the Citrini report scared people, it was a fantasy without economic logic. 

It turns out lower income households spent more than expected this past year.

Disgruntled at work? Some who are, may be susceptible to hackers who offer the "right price".

"Our economic lives unfold in nominal terms."

Could the system break? Or will it be able to bend?

A film from 1997 feels relevant today.  Also, pictures from the airstrikes. 

Wrap Up for January 2026

Some charts and explanations for losses in G7 industrialization.

The recent transition to fiscal dominance is proving difficult to reverse.

Sweden hasn't had the efficiency gains from prefab construction that one might expect.

Where have fertility rates declined the most? And, there have been considerable shifts in global economic power since 1980.

Total output tends to tell us more about existing inequalities than income distribution.

AI thinking in demented times. Why is it so important to awaken superintelligence as a final goal, anyway? And: "Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without preparing for it."

How big of a risk would it be for oil companies to invest in Venezuela now, given so many unknowns?

Home health and personal care aides are likely the fastest growing jobs of the coming decade. 

When it comes to actions taken by a state, context is more important than people often realize.

Venezuela has a complicated oil history. And,

Venezuela's heavy crude is more useful for  U.S. refining capacity than some realize.

The economic impacts of tariffs haven't been as disruptive as many expected them to be.

Recent policy strategy isn't just about oil, it's also about rare earths.

While low life expectancy in the U.S. is partly about young people, Hannah Ritchie takes a closer look at the particulars.

If Paul Krugman is right, perhaps more heavy oil will simply arrive in the Gulf for further production.  But what if - given suitable political and institutional circumstance - oil production here could become profitable at $25-$30 per barrel? 

Even failed New Year's resolutions serve a useful purpose.

It's simple actions like this that still give me hope for the world!

Graphs provide a closer look at the current market for employment.

With the disintegration of the old world order, it's anyone's guess what comes next.

"Six more months. This regime has six months left."

A visual for global inflation in 2025. Also, a visual for the healthiest places to live in the U.S.

Even though the rewards of globalization didn't shrink, 80 percent of Americans ended up with a smaller slice of the economic pie.

What's going on in the economy? Kyla Scanlon sits down with Mary Daly and Tom Barkin.

Where is the digital workforce in the U.S. and how is it evolving?

As expected, firms downstream of metals manufacturing are having a more difficult time.

Janet Yellen spoke recently about the problems of fiscal dominance.

The U.S. drinks a lot of beer but China drinks even more.

The "No Hire" economy has been especially difficult for both low income and early career workers.

The threat of a federal indictment finally convinced Jerome Powell to explain, what's really at stake for the Federal Reserve. And, Good on you, Alex Tabarrok, for saying what needed to be said. But as for Tyler, I would suggest he recover his spine by letting people know publicly that he cares about much more than the price of gold! The fact that Powell is dug in (and rightly so), "makes a mess of things". Ah well!

Despite the possibility of revolution, there are no obvious alternatives for Iran.

Apartments have become more affordable recently in Sun Belt markets. But might that process continue?

A joint statement in support of Federal Reserve independence. Also, international support.

A thought experiment for solar panels on land that is currently being used for biofuels.

In real time, witnessing a man of integrity and courage.

Why are people collectively pessimistic, and why does it matter for the state of the world?

Markets are still quiet after the threat to the Fed's independence, but that's no reason to breathe easy.

There's been plenty of pushback in support of Jerome Powell. And it could be working.

A visual which charts price changes in the last 25 years.

Participatory budgets as a way to help reduce local corruption.

More doctors are moving to a cash based system for healthcare.

The next Fed Chair will have to prove that he is independent, even though that won't go over well with the President.

An even more extreme immigrant ban has now been adopted.

It's hard to believe that just 4% of the economy is currently responsible for 92% of growth.

Those coveted minerals aren't rare, "just hell to process".

Claudia Sahm and Paul Krugman take another look at current Federal Reserve circumstance.

How has the U.S. Dollar fared recently against other major currencies?

The U.S. still has exorbitant privilege, but it's far from perfect.

Which homes remain affordable to median-income households?

There's a mechanic shortage. Or, is there?

Much has changed in terms of wealth since 2010.

The EU has yet to adapt to a world where - once again - might makes right.

Some commodities are no longer getting cheaper as time goes on.

The forcible removal of 8 to 10 million immigrant workers is no small thing, and doing so also means negative macroeconomic impacts. "Mass deportation does not elevate American workers."

Those risks for higher inflation are still playing out.

Greenland simply isn't worth what people imagine it to be worth.

For obvious reasons, this killing was a "murder too far". "They've taken the best of us!"

Where are the green shoots in manufacturing?

The dollar isn't doing well right now. And the sell-off is accelerating.

Brutal? Yes. Unprecedented? No. This song is quite appropriate for Zachary Karabell's reasoning: "I'm starting with the Man in the Mirror". What has happened in Minnesota is horrifying, yet it is also encouraging.

It could be said that water in the U.S. is "too clean". How is that even possible? It turns out that exorbitant costs associated with high expectations for water quality, are now part of what stands in the way of housing access.

Are manufactured  goods more likely to decline in price over time (good deflation) than commodities? It's complicated.

A visual for countries where U.S. debt is held.

What is the current status of tariff effects on U.S. prices? It helps to remember that lower income levels are more negatively affected, since more of their income goes to tariff impacted imports.

Kevin  Warsh could be a hawk in dove's clothing. But who really knows for sure? Also: The Dollar rose and precious  metals fell. Yet how much of this is even related to Warsh? Warsh has been a monetary policy hawk all along. I remember well, previous years when his hawkish stance contributed to monetary policy mishaps. So, what gives?

How much innovation might (finally) happen, now that construction industries are experiencing skills shortages?

Immigration agents at an elementary school: "They linger at dismissal time, when kids are walking home or being picked up. They follow parents driving other people's kids home..."

What a rough and exhausting month it has been. I hope so much for all of us, that the future will be better than what we are currently experiencing now.