Friday, May 31, 2024

Wrap Up for May 2024

Multiple approaches are needed to undo the difficulties of Moloch traps.

Which groups have saved the most money?

Childcare is one of the most important services we have lost the ability to coordinate with others, in recent decades.

"Public Debt Dynamics and the Impact of Fiscal Policy"

Gene banks alone aren't enough to protect the world's food supply.

Josh Hendrickson explains the basic premise of his recent paper, "The Treasury Standard".

Job market demand has shifted from decades of high skill requirements towards more basic skills.

It's one thing to request a "lift assist" from 911 at home, but altogether another in institutions where skilled personnel are already available. Indeed it's embarrassing to have to call from home more than once! Fortunately, the cloth straps mentioned in this article work well when only a single caregiver is available.

How much has economic growth actually contributed to debt reduction?

Governments are not prepared for what has become an era of global migration.

Rural Democrats no longer really have a chance. How to change that?

For those of us who have not yet read Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies, a recent post from Eli Dourado is helpful.  

"Plenty of filet mignon but no hamburger"

A belief that high inflation was "inevitable" doesn't speak well of the Fed approach.

Europe remains a long way from fiscal union.

Alas, civil asset forfeiture is a lucrative source of law enforcement revenues.

We are just beginning to learn about the health effects of ultra processed foods.

By now, the reality of government borrowing constraints should be obvious.

Henry George's proposed solutions were shaped by the terrible urban conditions of the 1800s.

How might political risks ultimately translate into economic losses in the U.S.?

It's not yet obvious that productivity has recently surged.

Building with stone isn't likely to replace steel or concrete anytime soon.

Most government agencies in the U.S. aren't really that popular. 

It's already becoming more difficult to find dark chocolate options in the stores.

The move towards remote or at home healthcare has already begun.

North America is far more car dependent than other parts of the world.

Having health insurance doesn't necessarily guarantee quality care.

"All we do is complain while China advances." Somehow it doesn't feel like a crackdown on Chinese imports will result in better cars elsewhere. Yet it's easy to forget that back when the U.S. and Europe spoke of building a post-fossil-fuels economy, China was the one that really listened. Plus, how might those EV tariffs play out in the U.S.?

Social Security has become part of a growing fiscal debt problem. Yet politicians in the U.S. are nowhere near ready to face fiscal realities.

The U.S. continues to move in a conservative direction, but what is missing?

Unfortunately, many people aren't completely sold on the efficacy of market-rate housing.

Perhaps pessimism is more rational than we thought! This line of thought could also explain the old saying that "no news is good news".

 As this important Works in Progress article explains, creating the desired material is only the beginning of what is necessary to bring its potential to fruition. At least there's the possibility of advance market commitments to get things started.

Is suburban sprawl unsustainable?

"Are African Prices Too High?"Perhaps not surprisingly I think about this in terms of local or regional aggregate time availability. In other words, how much free time does the population actually have, after already existing necessary time commitments which aren't often monetary in nature. Agricultural subsistence in a developing economy is not unlike family obligations in advanced economies, where the latter requires a salary high enough for individuals to somehow shift their work-at-home obligations. That said, once local agricultural output becomes more productive, (and once populations adjust to lower agricultural product costs) local and regional time aggregates don't face the same sets of time use constraints. What's particularly interesting in this article, are how the one time transitional costs of agricultural productivity change a given labour market status quo. One day when my own at-home work obligations aren't so extensive, I hope to spend more time thinking about these things...not to mention writing actual posts beyond Wrap Ups for this blog again.

What happens next, when the energy transition success story belongs to someone else?

Some financial specifics for entitlement program status.

Rural hospital closures continue regardless of who is in office.

There's no consensus yet about the declining labour share.

Some parts of the country are more difficult than others for home buying.

What would it mean to "weaken" the dollar?

How much have the top economies changed since 1980?

A new approach to innovation in the building industry. Some cities and towns are going the modular route.

Claudia Sahm responds to an Axios post from Felix Salmon regarding inflation changes versus inflation levels. Alas, the problem now, versus what happened to inflation levels in previous decades, is the change in housing affordability and to a lesser extent, time based services affordability. Even though I experienced seventies era inflation as a young adult, it didn't include the same devastating effect on housing access for those of us with lower to middle income levels.

When it comes to "elite overproduction" the anger is likely to continue.

Why has the UK never fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis?

"Moving to electric cars only makes sense from a water perspective if we're decarbonising the grid at the same time."

What is different now about (future) price pressures?

Even when economic theory matches what is obviously real, people may not be willing to accept it.

Ultimately, nursing homes are likely a failing institutional model for many communities.

Alas, the political left needs to find better ways forward that are not so top down in nature. Industrial policy can help, but it won't repair broken markets which can't be mended with top down "solutions". And insisting "markets aren't the solution" is no way to preserve what autonomy that lower to middle income people still have

In some instances chocolate prices may not come back down.

When caregiving leads to homelessness.

Has worker pay kept up with productivity growth? It depends on how this is measured.

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