Wrap Up for January 2024

Many don't realize how high property tax burdens have actually been in Texas.

People are still intrigued by the idea of a Gesellian economy.

When interest rates are the main Fed tool (rather than NGDP), the seemingly simple logic of a "soft landing" becomes more difficult. Wage inflation also has not come down enough for a soft landing to be realistic at this point. And, Scott Sumner highlights some of "the best" money macro economists.

What will be the main economic stories of 2024? However, after the next 10 months, all bets are off. 

Arpit Gupta discusses sectoral factors which continue to affect post-pandemic inflation. 

For healthcare, the U.S. leads in both price and quantity rankings.

Some government created fiscal commissions have been more successful than others. What would a new fiscal commission seek to achieve?

It's not clear which restrictions actually stand in the way of greater manufactured home construction.

A closer look at some disinflationary trends.

Recent developments in satellite imagery, make it possible to show the extent of human activity taking place at sea.

Despite disinflationary gains, prices haven't stopped rising in Europe.

Michael Easter discusses his book Scarcity Brain with Russ Roberts.

What might an inspiring 21st century department store look like?

Some 2023 highlights and looking ahead, from Macro Musings.

2023 certainly turned out different than some expected.

Are people starting to lose interest in an economic education?

Robert Solow made a profound contribution to economic growth.

There's been a shift away from the culture of progress in the West.

Brink Lindsey highlights the problem of fertility collapse.

High income levels tend to pay the lowest local and state level taxes.

Rising rents and evictions also impact lifespan and mortality rates.

How to think about inequality? It depends on one's research sources. 

In order for prophecy to actually be worthwhile, it needs to spell out the future in concrete and specific terms, so that adaptation is feasible. 

A visual for "Top global risks in 2024".  Brookings notes five risks. Global commerce is also fragile.

Asbestos actually had beneficial qualities. But the dangers were higher than anyone initially realized.

Is "consumption-led growth" really the best way to describe what an economy may need?

Peter Ireland has a new paper on money growth and inflation.

Republicans, rural residents, renters, women, and singles are the ones who don't feel particularly good about the economy. And as Neil Irwin notes, it's the higher price level that bothers people most. Americans think their leaders don't care.

In recent years, hospital debt obligations have increased for people with health insurance.

There's potential for innovation in insulin production.

"Did the West get rich from imperialism?"

It's already existing student debt obligations, not to mention child care costs, which make home ownership so difficult for young adults.

The U.K. has struggled more recently than many nations.

Perceptions of the U.S. government, have taken a turn for the worse.

Adam Ozimek highlights the challenges of an aging population.

Davos notes that the debt problem is global this time.

The relative price of goods also still remains above trend. 

How would a second Trump presidency compare to the first, in terms of healthcare?

Much about inequality in the U.S. really comes down to the hidden cost of healthcare insurance.

J.W. Mason explains "13 Ways of Looking at Money".

U.S. industrial policy still leaves a lot to be desired.

U.S. citizens remain too reliant on (unpaid) family members for long term care of the elderly.

"Between 1982 and 1987, half of US machine tool firms closed their doors."

Which school investments increase local property values? It depends.

The tightening mechanism worked better via corporate channels than some may have expected.

Despite the negative supply shocks, there have been positive ones as well.

"Quiet Quitting the War on Drugs"

Even Yimbys aren't always on board with new cities that are a fresh start, rather than adaptations for already existing ones. Noah Smith has a much more positive take. 

A different kind of politico-military strategy.

"The real problem is the debt time bomb." It still doesn't seem like anyone is serious about dealing with this. I believe that structural solutions beyond money are necessary to turn things around. But people have yet to consider such a route, let alone act on it.

How did the measurement of aggregate demand become so confusing?

I'd note that time banks could at least function as a simple component of time arbitrage. 

Political pressure has been a problem for inflation.

Some structural accounting for markups now occurring in services rather than goods.

The soft landing? Or perhaps no landing at all.

Kevin Erdmann is in favour of a 5 percent NGDP growth trend.

Jonathon Hazell on Phillips Curves, Wage Rigidity, and How to Measure R-Star" Plus, Scott Sumner responds.

Which states are the most racially diverse?

Aggregate demand or NGDP isn't important in the long run, but it's the most important variable in the short run. And anyone who takes it seriously has a useful context for gradualism as well.

"Real residential investment is half of what it commonly was in the past, relative to other real production."

Is disinflation over?

"the cost of mortgage origination has basically never been higher." FinTech hasn't really delivered the market improvements that seemed possible.

Public health is in need of a new approach.

There are positive global implications for local 3D printing with recycled materials, for construction. "The goal of this research is to create a system for constructing homes that alleviates strains on the supply chain and addresses labor shortages, while providing economical and sustainable housing."

A positive story in renewed community connections.

Some thoughtful explanations for recent world conflicts.

Whatever happened to the retail "apocalypse"?

It's been quite a struggle for aircraft manufacturers.