Wrap Up for November 2024

There are surprising similarities between China's recent development, and that of the nineteenth century U.S.

What happens when government assistance is phased out as low incomes rise?

A visual for public perceptions of safety around the world.

For many such as myself, the long inflation of the seventies wasn't near as unsettling as the (hopefully) brief inflation of our time. 

Vacancy rates as an indicator of housing shortages.

By no means is insurance availability a guarantee of healthcare access.

Oral traditions matter for economic outcomes.

American households have changed a lot since 1960.

More job reallocation has occurred in areas where human capital was already high.

Some thoughts on an era of nationalism and fiscal excess. Plus, it was a bad year for incumbent parties.

Which countries have the greatest diversity of natural resources in considerable amounts?

What makes quartz from Spruce Pine, so important for semiconductor manufacture?

Robots have turned out to be useful for some tasks in nursing homes.

Economic considerations regarding the election.

The percentage of the population suffering from long Covid is larger than expected.

The professional class is out of touch with everyone else.

Jason Furman recommends five books on economic policy.

What is the accuracy of immigration data?

USA Facts highlights the government budget deficit.

It helps that low-carbon tech doesn't need as many resources as before.

A different take on the Trump identity.

Might the election have turned out differently, if the Fed was more careful about curbing inflation?

A visual for fiscal receipts versus fiscal outlays.

What might current diminishing returns tell us about the future of AI?

Why is there less room to cut interest rates?

Carola Binder explains "Where inflation comes from".

Even though politics has changed, economic principles haven't.

Zero sum thinking helps to explain the nature of political divides.

How the other ten percent lives: People who don't drive cars.

Perhaps we shouldn't be too worried about near future energy demand.

If tariffs really must be increased, at least make them specific in nature.

Wind turbine service technicians in particular, should find it easy to get work.

Some birth and fertility statistics. 

People without college degrees remain too fragmented and isolated from one another to function like the working classes of earlier eras. Some want Democrats to "win" these voters back. However, as long time readers may recall, I believe these groups would fare better with new institutional frameworks which specifically serve them. In particular, institutions which aim to create good deflation in a wide range of domestic economic activity.

Runs on otherwise healthy banks, aren't really that common.

Even though college is no longer always seen as a viable option, apprenticeship opportunities are growing.

Brian Potter takes a closer look at road quality.

Congestion pricing has worked well for other nations.

A visual for businesses most likely to survive in the last decade.

Further speculation on potential economic effects from Trump's policies.

Nominal GDP is not given enough consideration, to determine whether inflation is supply or demand driven.

The race to procure trade goods before the tariffs hit, could skew economic data for a while.

Finance was important for the emergence of both numeracy and literacy.

A visual for the world's largest goods exporters.

Different generations have different ideas as to what financial success consists of.

Texas may have to look far and wide for construction help, if many of its migrant workers are deported. A suggestion from this Texan: why not create more productive frameworks for building components in localized factory settings, frameworks which could appeal to a far wider range of workers than is presently the case? Such settings could also provide better employment stability, not to mention more reliable building component options for consumers.

There has been too little symmetry in the Fed's inflation target, in recent years.

Humanity is shrinking. Chances are, we have to make life a lot more affordable, if this reality is to be reversed.

America's recent productivity gains: But how much is as real as it seems?

Economics lends a different perspective to the degree things really matter.

How realistic is Scott Bessent's 3/3/3/ strategy?

Middle income trap issues are also relevant for the U.S.

Matthew Klein interviews Austan Goolsbee.

The opportunity cost of wanting both higher energy production and greater manufacturing capacity.

What if politics isn't actually the central component of history?

Middlemen add to grocery costs, but what makes them necessary for the supply chain in the first place?

Wrap Up for October 2024

Monetary policy shocks tend to be more problematic when U.S. presidents pressure the Fed.

Bernanke was too focused on interest rates to keep monetary policy on a truly stable path.

Natural disasters have greater effects on mortality than is immediately obvious. In some instances there can be "a decade of hardship on tap".

Subjective experiences will always be important for human identity. Which is why they also matter for how AI ultimately evolves. 

Encouraging data for business dynamism.

"The rise of coal was not caused by deforestation. Deforestation was caused by the arrival of cheap coal."

Neither party is ready to deal with the current realities of Social Security.

Where is traffic the worst in the world?

The equation which still leads to confusion.

When critics and supporters alike envision AI primarily as a human remover, that's a problem.

Scott Sumner provides highlights re the recent Cowen/Tabarrok inflation debate.

Would U.S. ports benefit from further automation? It's complicated.

A visual reminder that damage costs from hurricanes are not always about wind speeds.

State rankings for healthcare access.

Jonathon Hazell and David Beckworth talk inflation and the Phillips Curve.

Our time use decisions include daily priorities. And the specific activities we focus on, affect our long term memory.

Axios highlights the current rise in employer healthcare costs.

The Republican relationship with welfare recipients has changed. Plus, EIG tracks the rise in reliance on government income. Small wonder the federal deficit has been missing from political discussions this year.

Public school enrollment continues to decline across the board.

"even though the U.S. controls its own currency, its debt would become unsustainable as it approaches 175% of GDP." Given this reality, despite political inclinations towards fiscal dominance (over monetary dominance), fiscal dominance would certainly be a temporary phase.

Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson: Brian Albrecht's thoughts on the 2024 economics Nobel. Alex Tabarrok provides examples of their work over the years. Timothy Taylor reflects on their contributions to institutional frameworks. However, Noah Smith feels the Nobel prize has become too much of a popularity contest. Yet Scott Sumner notes how there are times when anecdotes matter. Also, an earlier critique.

What makes Wisconsin a different kind of state?

When it comes to our time use options, what if we've been too focused on constant productivity?

The most likely scenario if there were a Trump sweep.

Late-career entrepreneurs create more innovation than is generally realized.

Many older adults live alone in spite of cognitive impairments.

Despite fears about AI taking jobs, in some instances it is actually making jobs more pleasant.

Adam Tooze "comes clean" about his cognitive dissonance on inflation.

Growing fiscal debt realities nonetheless clash with growing fiscal needs - not just in the U.S. but around the world. Healthcare, military needs and the green transition are all on the line. And fiscal tightening has also become politically unfeasible. 

Where do people feel safe enough to walk outdoors at night?

Mapping tech talent hubs across North America.

Research and development spending in the U.S. is still quite strong.

New tenant rent remains somewhat elevated. Axios explains how this could pose problems till 2026.

Monetary circumstance can also lead to disequilibrium.

Timothy Taylor considers ways to improve the healthcare system in the U.S.

A quick summary regarding global economic stability.

Some home price to income ratios for large cities.

Reflecting on Covid-era inflation and how this could affect possible revisions in the Fed framework.

GDP per capita by state.

In many instances, simple solutions are best.

Economists have learned some important lessons about real shocks and recessions.

What are the risks of Trump's proposed economic policies?

The "triple pivot" isn't easy.

Tim Harford frames the Baumol effect as a good-news story.

When problems are complex, complex policy regimes are still not the answer.

Some differences between Republican and Democratic platforms regarding the Fed.

From the heyday of the secretary, to the office of tomorrow. 

The economics profession is apparently the first loser of this election.

An eighth grade test from 1912 offers a fascinating comparison to today's educational expectations.

Physical strength is still required for a wide range of work.

Density zones as a national approach to housing access and affordability.

The U.S. continues to pull ahead of other advanced economies.

How do people in the U.S. feel about Generative Artificial Intelligence?

Given current institutional constraints, is it feasible for either party to really make a difference in healthcare right now? That said, there's one important caveat: circumstances regarding abortion related issues are likely to change.

Post-Helene, solar-powered generators came to the rescue in North Carolina. Indeed, as anyone who has been without power for more than a couple days knows, it's one heck of a relief when noisy gas generators finally go silent. Not to mention, gas for those generators can run thousands of dollars a month.

Tariffs are even worse than we thought.

Austerity will become necessary sooner rather than later. But what forms might it assume?

Wrap Up for September 2024

A novel technique that could potentially reduce beach erosion.

Scott Sumner's new blog takes a more expansive and optimistic approach.

How might we expect solar costs to evolve?

Americans have practically stopped moving, and those who still do, tend to have college degrees.

The founder mode of running a business is not the same as a manager mode.

"If I can stay healthy for two years, the land is safe"

The U.S. is gaining ground in the global chip market.

Grocery store earnings have performed differently from other retail indicators.

The homicide rate clearance decline is race specific.

Nazis? Some suggestions for dealing with the real thing.

Top export markets for G20 countries.

A focus on escaping the middle-income trap.

When it comes to human capital, one group's "innovation" can be another group's disappointment. Nevertheless, there remain numerous challenges on the horizon for public education. Texas schools are finding ways to address teacher shortages.

Monetary policy forecasting is difficult because the natural rate is not visible in real time.

Working class men continue to struggle in society.

Inflation is worse (once again) at the 25th percentile by income.

Rankings for both best and worst states to retire in.

Why is taxation of unrealized gains impractical? When it comes to taxation, simple really is better.

Some EU countries are far more expensive than others.

Overall growth has been higher in regions which don't excessively rely on their healthcare and educational institutions.

For small towns, it's a challenge to maintain necessary skills, especially for the elderly.

Doubling down on tariffs would not be the panacea that Trump imagines.

Price gouging? Don't forget the recent exodus of low wage workers which led to higher wages for employees in retail and food manufacturing.

Many advances in productivity are being captured by industry leaders. Still, there are other causes as well for the productivity slowdown.

While mosquitoes remain a problem here on the Texas coast, surprisingly they're not as overwhelming as they used to be.

Adam Tooze on the recent EU productivity report from Mario Draghi, here, also here

Nevertheless the Draghi report is a reason to feel confident about the U.S. economy.

Are cities where consumption is greater than production, the "wrong" kind?

Letting kids learn at their own pace.

Output measurement costs include their own trade-offs.

Are we working more, or less? Much depends on what is actually being measured.

New data sets which highlight housing regulations.

What accounts for the healthcare spending slowdown, and will it last?

Natural disasters are becoming an existential problem for insurers. Lack of insurance availability also creates greater housing supply challenges.

It's been a long time since housing costs were important to presidential election concerns.

Russ Roberts discusses Blind Spots with Marty Makary.

Current global supply of minerals needed for the energy transition.

In the U.S. the share of international students continues to fall.

How far will $100 go in each state? Despite greater purchasing power, Southern states are having more problems paying their bills.

Draghi's report is useful. But what might get in the way?

How much does openness to trade affect growth?

Supply side inflation is temporary, but demand side inflation is permanent.

Alas, recent healthcare rankings for the U.S. aren't so surprising.

Conflict costs are one reason people hate inflation.

Some highlights from Noah Smith, including a thoughtful article re Britain's economic woes.

How do deportations affect the economy?

Making the case for NGDP targeting.

If not mass low skill immigration, then what can revive declining places?

For once, recessionary forecasts seemed as though a false alarm.

How much might countries be expected to grow over the next decade?

The good news about low-carbon technologies is that far less mining is involved.

Changes in working age populations over the next decade.

Not enough attention is being centered on supply side vulnerabilities. Parts I and II.

Restaurant service seems lousy these days. But what does that really mean?

The share of manufacturing workers is on a slow decline.

Remember when Congress believed fiscal stabilization was important?

Noah Smith and James Pethokoukis on technological progress.

Dealing with medical debt is complicated, to say the least.

This article inadvertently makes some of the best arguments I've come across, for time arbitrage as an economic unit of value.

A map of states depicting loneliness.

The U.S. is likely to experience the biggest accumulation of gross debt in the coming five years.

Voters haven't seemed overly concerned about tariffs across the board. That needs to change! Noah Smith cites an economic misunderstanding which may be contributing to the problem.

 Unfortunately, Trump's plan for mass deportations is only the latest historical example.

Wrap Up for August 2024

Class gaps are growing while race gaps are shrinking.

What lessons could be learned from British town planning?

Noah Smith explains what wrecked Venezuela. 

Material composites will soon be affordable and accessible.

This 3D printer uses soil to create housing.

Hospitals went on a "massive doctor acquisition spree". How has that turned out?

The demographic good fortune of living longer, still presents its own problems.

Maternity homes are making a comeback, but with a significant difference from those which existed earlier in the 20th century.

"Why Do Interest Rates Matter?"

Adam Tooze on U.S. politics immediately following World War 1.

Not as many of our neighbors own guns as we have likely imagined.

Mining copper requires vastly less time than it once did. Indeed, "this version of Moore's Law is rarely ever discussed".

Global births from 1950 to 2023.

In Texas, incentives are lacking when it comes to supervising new mental health workers. Perhaps this is also a factor in the lack of mental healthcare accessibility in Texas. Nevertheless healthcare access in Texas is limited in other ways as well.

Should rents be excluded from indexes that influence monetary policy?

"How California Turned Against Growth"

Immigration and the need for regional policy.

Decades of effort have gone into congestion pricing for New York City.

Some visuals for tax revenue versus GDP by country.

Why is it so expensive in the U.S. to build roads?

This housing story isn't so difficult to understand.

Jobs remain the most important factor for moving decisions.

Economic warfare has become too much of an instant reflex.

The year 2025 could mean dramatic changes in U.S. tax policy.

How important is land-use regulation for construction productivity?

A visual for real wage growth since 1979.

Some recent reporting on Medicare financing.

Kyla Scanlon with David Beckworth on the "Vibecession" and more.

Creativity isn't scarce, but societies often don't allow it unless it comes from the "right" places.

Some visuals for recent growth projections.

Perhaps a slowing business cycle is partly due to reduced immigration.

When it comes to personal success in life, health really matters.

"A 30-nation investigation of lay heritability beliefs"

Aquaculture has come of age.

Which states in the U.S. are experiencing the highest poverty?

Time spent at home has risen for all ages and activities.

When it comes to home ownership, Singapore devised a system that works.

Excellent notes from Adam Tooze on the new dollar dominance and macroeconomic thought of the 1920s.  

A review of earlier Jackson Hole speeches from Fed Chair Jay Powell.

How many farmers actually owned their land in 1900? Sharecropping was part of the means by which one of my grandfathers (in Texas) worked to support his family.

The teaching profession has fallen on hard times.

Statistics for homelessness around the world.

Which states have the highest life expectancy?

An explanation re how central banks manage inflation

There are at least 7 reasons why the U.S. economy shouldn't fall into recession.

Some simple ways to be optimistic about increasing productivity.

On the other hand, political truths aren't simple at all.

In economic thought, apparently too many are mostly playing "follow the leader".

No other patio table compares to this one!

Which states suffer from the highest rates of violent crime?

Unfortunately, higher tariffs may end up shifting consumption away from goods and towards services. 

On the burdens of mental health.

One reason I've hoped time arbitrage could eventually help restore lifelong friendships: people without college degrees are now less likely to have close friends.

A thread on the US/China trade war in semiconductor industries

Carola Binder discusses her recent book with David Beckworth, and more.

Monetary dominance is still in control.

Texas now faces its own home shortage.

What could have caused Boomers to fall behind in terms of dynamism and wealth creation?  The result was a decline in health and human capital.

Our most important economic problems must be addressed through an output perspective, not a monetary perspective.

Taking government debt seriously, plus five suggestions for how to do so.

Urban population rates in many states are higher than I realized.

Wrap Up for July 2024

We need free markets especially since "Not everyone sees the world in the same way". Actual freedom in market choice and formation, could also allow time arbitrage to transform how we structure interactions with one another.

Which are the most dangerous states, and why? 

Some suggestions for an updated view on immigration.

A new alliance for manufacturing.

Problems brought on by immigration can't simply be ignored.

How do property taxes impact housing allocation?

Tanzania provides examples of services-led development. But it comes with its own problems.

What made lumber "cheap" compared to other building costs?

Greg Mankiw explains why people feel bad about the economy.

Where did house prices go up the most in the last year? The least? Also, which states have the most cities with more than 250,000 residents?

What I believe: If politicians aren't willing to take the global debt crisis seriously, citizens ultimately should do so in their stead.

There's been no rebound in public school employment since the pandemic.

Scott Sumner explains why the "cost of living" is so subjective.

Ernie Tedeschi and David Beckworth discuss risks to the U.S. as a safe harbor premium. This risk "weighs on our well-being over time".

The time is drawing near that excessive debt will change everything about America's status in the world.

Private equity hospitals tend to pay the bills by skimping on human capital costs. Yet other hospitals also struggle to pay the salaries people seek. Which helps explain why systems are needed for knowledge and skill use that sustain populations without need of high monetary compensation. 

Automotive sales around the world in 2023.

A focus on the medium-term target makes it simpler to adhere to the nominal stability of NGDP. Also, how might the yield curve prove useful in this strategy?

Why has progress in manufacturing productivity stagnated?

What makes income more important than wealth?

A hotter world is a less productive world.

Adam Tooze on migration in the U.S.

Greg Mankiw shares some personal beliefs regarding inflation.

Cash use continues to decline in many countries.

How have economic conditions changed for low wage workers? A new low wage index provides answers.

Advice really doesn't work very well.

"The Past, Present and Future of European Productivity"

Rising healthcare costs increasingly affect who keeps their job.

Will our world be one of abundance or zero-sum stagnation? Brink Lindsey talks with Eli Dourado.

Latin America is faced with considerable fiscal challenges.

How is J.D. Vance's economic philosophy different from the conservative past?

Supply shock inflation is likely lower than current estimates.

Which states in 2023 lost the most population?

Several states with the worst performing economies surprised me.

A monetarist approach to inflation targeting.

Low wage pay is still more prevalent than many people realize.

Lack of money for water infrastructure also impacts affordable housing, not to mention local business activities.

Desirable consumer surplus and specific industrial programs aren't the same thing.

The fiscal theory of the price level seems to promise more than it delivers.

Are there ways to reduce deaths from extreme heat?

How many seniors in the U.S. live in poverty? Much depends on how the data gets framed.

If wage growth stays elevated, so will inflation.

So far it's been a good year for staple crops.

A Manhattan Institute plan for federal budgetary solutions.

James Bullard talks with David Beckworth about current Fed monetary policy.

Training a new generation of farmers.

Demand for U.S. Treasury bonds? So far, so good.

Eliminating taxes on tips isn't quite as beneficial for employees as it sounds.

The rise and fall of Levittown.

It helps to remember that the Sahm Rule is an indicator, not a forecast.

The southward migration in the U.S. has begun to reverse. Some of this is reflected in recent active inventory.

How is Chinese economic growth associated with total factor productivity?

When it comes to property insurance, taxpayers are increasingly on the hook for climate change related natural disasters.

It's easy to forget which international commercial partners actually dominate in the U.S.

The current macroeconomic environment is about supply constraints.

Some drivers are simply refusing to buy auto insurance.

Demand for air conditioning globally continues to increase.

Christina and David Romer provide examples for successful Fed outcomes via disinflation.

It seems unusual that the U.S. missed the battery revolution.

Wrap Up for June 2024

Does Henry George's argument to tax only land, still hold relevance today?

Robin Brooks notes price resets and disinflation in the U.S.

There's a difference between reported disasters and the true number of disaster events. Some impacts remain difficult to quantify as well.

Some historical context for U.S. border crossings.

It takes more than being a tourist to get to know a country.

Perhaps it shouldn't be surprising that interest rate targeting can lead to a "lack of confidence".

When naming something becomes a form of propaganda. I highlighted this article because of the long term budgetary problems which derive in part from not for profits - not just at local but also state and national levels. Still, the article seems to have its own identity issues! It's misleading to attribute misspent money problems to progressive or even libertarian tendencies, as if conservative leadership is somehow immune from the process. Even now, conservatives take advantage of similar strategies to divert taxpayer funding away from public schools for both profit and not for profit educational alternatives. 

The latest example of a commitment device.

If jobs and income reduce property crimes, why don't they reduce violent crimes?

Some political possibilities of an abundance agenda.

Are there more sustainable models for desirable retail?

International trade is becoming increasingly geopolitical.

Some zombie companies are struggling as they wait for lower interest rates.

Advance market commitments as a market shaping tool.

Political unrest here, is just one more thing Canada needs to be concerned about.

Who really has societal permission to write? How has this changed?

How is federal debt currently held by the public?

In 2023, France had the most tourists.

Lower income levels bear the most burden from tariffs, which makes them regressive.

How important is a political perspective for positive structural change? What's striking to me about this article is the author's belief that important ideas can be successfully associated with political beliefs. Given the political polarization of the present, I believe it's best to separate many ideas from political activities, particularly when it comes to rebuilding viable markets in rural areas. For one, despite temptations to rely on political alignments in such efforts, only consider the damage later on, when productive economic strategies are abandoned primarily because they are aligned with the "wrong" political party.

Where are immigrants especially needed in the U.S.?

A human chain made this bookstore moving job easy!

Medicaid expansion has resulted in more positive mental outcomes, than positive physical outcomes.

Don't ignore the signals that are being sent by NGDP.

Not sure if this is an optimal use of taxpayer dollars. Plus, a billionaire's model?

Like Ben Southwood, I believe economic interventions could help with the fertility problem.

U.S. health spending may resume its upward trajectory in the coming years, but it's difficult to determine exactly why.

From the department of "oh well!" Price transparency didn't lower costs as hoped.

Demographics in China shouldn't pose problems until at least mid-century.

Teen mental health has declined more in English speaking countries.

Lars Christensen talks with David Beckworth about the impact of AI on monetary policy and economics in general.

The Boston Fed notes how housing still poses problems for inflation levels. Axios provides further clarification.

The welfare effects of demand and supply side inflation aren't the same at all. And I agree that NGDP targeting should not be that difficult for much of the public to understand.

Five book recommendations for GDP.

Some debt math calculations for Trump and Biden.

Linking homeschooling to abuse was a mistake.

How much does ideology actually explain about political differences?

State income differences in the U.S.

Online information has made used car buying less risky than was once the case.

There's not many new macro ideas that are "being explained in non-technical papers for the layman".

Even if politicians appear mostly unconcerned about the budget deficit, the average consumer isn't so sanguine.

Societies without markets sometimes had more violence than it may have seemed in retrospect. Plus an earlier example.

Industrial production is the wealth that sustains us.

Wrap Up for May 2024

Multiple approaches are needed to undo the difficulties of Moloch traps.

Which groups have saved the most money?

Childcare is one of the most important services we have lost the ability to coordinate with others, in recent decades.

"Public Debt Dynamics and the Impact of Fiscal Policy"

Gene banks alone aren't enough to protect the world's food supply.

Josh Hendrickson explains the basic premise of his recent paper, "The Treasury Standard".

Job market demand has shifted from decades of high skill requirements towards more basic skills.

It's one thing to request a "lift assist" from 911 at home, but altogether another in institutions where skilled personnel are already available. Indeed it's embarrassing to have to call from home more than once! Fortunately, the cloth straps mentioned in this article work well when only a single caregiver is available.

How much has economic growth actually contributed to debt reduction?

Governments are not prepared for what has become an era of global migration.

Rural Democrats no longer really have a chance. How to change that?

For those of us who have not yet read Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies, a recent post from Eli Dourado is helpful.  

"Plenty of filet mignon but no hamburger"

A belief that high inflation was "inevitable" doesn't speak well of the Fed approach.

Europe remains a long way from fiscal union.

Alas, civil asset forfeiture is a lucrative source of law enforcement revenues.

We are just beginning to learn about the health effects of ultra processed foods.

By now, the reality of government borrowing constraints should be obvious.

Henry George's proposed solutions were shaped by the terrible urban conditions of the 1800s.

How might political risks ultimately translate into economic losses in the U.S.?

It's not yet obvious that productivity has recently surged.

Building with stone isn't likely to replace steel or concrete anytime soon.

Most government agencies in the U.S. aren't really that popular. 

It's already becoming more difficult to find dark chocolate options in the stores.

The move towards remote or at home healthcare has already begun.

North America is far more car dependent than other parts of the world.

Having health insurance doesn't necessarily guarantee quality care.

"All we do is complain while China advances." Somehow it doesn't feel like a crackdown on Chinese imports will result in better cars elsewhere. Yet it's easy to forget that back when the U.S. and Europe spoke of building a post-fossil-fuels economy, China was the one that really listened. Plus, how might those EV tariffs play out in the U.S.?

Social Security has become part of a growing fiscal debt problem. Yet politicians in the U.S. are nowhere near ready to face fiscal realities.

The U.S. continues to move in a conservative direction, but what is missing?

Unfortunately, many people aren't completely sold on the efficacy of market-rate housing.

Perhaps pessimism is more rational than we thought! This line of thought could also explain the old saying that "no news is good news".

 As this important Works in Progress article explains, creating the desired material is only the beginning of what is necessary to bring its potential to fruition. At least there's the possibility of advance market commitments to get things started.

Is suburban sprawl unsustainable?

"Are African Prices Too High?"Perhaps not surprisingly I think about this in terms of local or regional aggregate time availability. In other words, how much free time does the population actually have, after already existing necessary time commitments which aren't often monetary in nature. Agricultural subsistence in a developing economy is not unlike family obligations in advanced economies, where the latter requires a salary high enough for individuals to somehow shift their work-at-home obligations. That said, once local agricultural output becomes more productive, (and once populations adjust to lower agricultural product costs) local and regional time aggregates don't face the same sets of time use constraints. What's particularly interesting in this article, are how the one time transitional costs of agricultural productivity change a given labour market status quo. One day when my own at-home work obligations aren't so extensive, I hope to spend more time thinking about these things...not to mention writing actual posts beyond Wrap Ups for this blog again.

What happens next, when the energy transition success story belongs to someone else?

Some financial specifics for entitlement program status.

Rural hospital closures continue regardless of who is in office.

There's no consensus yet about the declining labour share.

Some parts of the country are more difficult than others for home buying.

What would it mean to "weaken" the dollar?

How much have the top economies changed since 1980?

A new approach to innovation in the building industry. Some cities and towns are going the modular route.

Claudia Sahm responds to an Axios post from Felix Salmon regarding inflation changes versus inflation levels. Alas, the problem now, versus what happened to inflation levels in previous decades, is the change in housing affordability and to a lesser extent, time based services affordability. Even though I experienced seventies era inflation as a young adult, it didn't include the same devastating effect on housing access for those of us with lower to middle income levels.

When it comes to "elite overproduction" the anger is likely to continue.

Why has the UK never fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis?

"Moving to electric cars only makes sense from a water perspective if we're decarbonising the grid at the same time."

What is different now about (future) price pressures?

Even when economic theory matches what is obviously real, people may not be willing to accept it.

Ultimately, nursing homes are likely a failing institutional model for many communities.

Alas, the political left needs to find better ways forward that are not so top down in nature. Industrial policy can help, but it won't repair broken markets which can't be mended with top down "solutions". And insisting "markets aren't the solution" is no way to preserve what autonomy that lower to middle income people still have. 

In some instances chocolate prices may not come back down.

When caregiving leads to homelessness.

Has worker pay kept up with productivity growth? It depends on how this is measured.

Wrap Up for April 2024

It's been a rough year for cocoa production. Long term issues are also at stake. What could be done?

More people are sounding the alarm about public debt levels.

To what extent have immigrants contributed to economic growth since the pandemic?

Bloomberg Economics runs a million simulations for future debt possibilities.

Timothy Taylor is skeptical about the practicality of R*.

Small countries are sometimes better positioned to address fiscal challenges.

Highlights from a recent report regarding why people hate inflation so much.

Don't neglect the physical costs of building homes, as they are also important for affordability.

Several global economic trends are increasing the pressure on central banks to further inflate.

Insufficient housing is "why the economy isn't working".

People don't think things are so great with the economy. What if they have a point? Scott Sumner responds.

Innovation and patent data are not well correlated.

Average income varies widely, depending on the state.

When did the dollar actually displace the sterling?

Might immigrants remain able to help "address the caregiving shortfall"? Understandably, however, many legal immigrants come here for more financially rewarding work. Labour markets that involve considerable monetary compensation, continue to formally displace labour activities with greater emphasis on time and lifestyle centered endeavour. Yet the latter - which tend to involve carefully calibrated time commitments - are equally vital for the knowledge and even technical maintenance of societies as a whole. Chances are, without solutions such as locally coordinated time arbitrage, it might remain difficult for many in the U.S. to procure or engage in a wide range of time based services in the foreseeable future. I also believe time arbitrage to be the most logical long term solution for the high debt levels of our time.

Diane Coyle recommends The Unaccountability Machine.

Resentment is not the same thing as rage. And rural residents have more rational concerns than some give them credit for.

Robin Brooks is concerned about U.S. debt. Plus, "Big Fiscal" is becoming a risky bet.

The story of development economics (thus far) feels incomplete without Albert Hirschman. Also, public housing as part of development economics.

Brad Delong recommends books on the classical economists, with ample highlights.

Robin Brooks notes an example of fiscal dominance.

New jobs are going to immigrants, but what exactly does that mean?

How far have 3D printed homes come towards cost effectiveness?

Brink Lindsey talks with Richard Reeves about his recent book on the troubles of boys and men.

History contains some grand narratives. Which ones appear most important for human survival?

Which states have the lowest rent? The highest?

IQ: What if both sides are wrong?

Time management is a deeper and more important subject than people often recognize. Passion for one's work is also another consideration in personal time management.

This is no time to be isolationist about what is happening in the world.

Julia Coronado discusses productivity, commercial real estate and the Fed's soft landing with David Beckworth.

Diane Coyle highlights The Currency of Politics.

Jamaica was actually able to halve its debt in a decade's time.

A new edition of healthcare from Axios.

Macroeconomic theory isn't well suited to dealing with the problems we currently face.

Nearly half of global employment is now in services.

The primary cause of hospital infections isn't what many people thought.

Scott Sumner notes some recent trends in monetary policy.

People often overweight past events if those events greatly impacted their lives while young.

Even without TikTok, social media is still a collective trap.

Debt interest payments are now $1 trillion, and growing.

Housing stock has been held back to an extent that economic progress is being lost.

Will ONX homes succeed where Katerra failed?

Josh Hendrickson explains how today's global dollar dominance functions as a "Treasury standard".

In the early part of the 20th century, most babies were born at home. This circumstance had dramatically shifted by 1955, when home births were at less than 1 percent. Now that emergency departments in hospitals are no longer willing to accept pregnant women in many states, it will take time - socially, medically and in terms of local education, to adjust to the new normal. Hopefully, one day, time arbitrage can also help fill the void.

Few are paying attention to the federal budget in this upcoming presidential election. And, another warning from the IMF.

The world is still headed in the wrong direction, when it comes to avoiding world war 3.

Will today's massive health insurance companies be able to achieve the system wide transformation that people now want?

The U.S. remains a tough market for EV adoption.

What accounts for the productivity growth gap between the U.S. and Europe?

There's been a surge in high tech business entry since the pandemic.

"An Earth Day Call to Conserve Native Plants in American Cities."

China "overcapacity"? No, and Matthew Klein is quite convincing here: "We need more of everything." Also, a YouTube interview with him.

Singapore's economic success resulted from an unusual beginning.

It's difficult for book publishing to remain viable if "No one buys books."

Insurance cancellation is becoming more common not just in healthcare but other aspects of daily life as well.

Dollar dominance as a key IMF theme.

If only real growth were following the steady nominal growth trend.

Some debt-to-GDP ratio changes since the year 2000. And, "global debt ratios are close to levels not seen since the 1820s"

Wrap Up for March 2024

Sometimes, informal aspects of time arbitrage suggest intentional markets in communities.

Transitory or permanent? Four years of data tell the story.

Has digitized medical information created more problems than it has solved?

There are rational ways to address the immigration crisis.

It's often no simple matter for states to use financial windfalls for their intended purpose.

At some point the $34 trillion debt burden could upset financial markets.

The "missing middle" is certainly in need of more housing. That said, more than traditional buildings will be required, if only because so much traditional financing that once catered to this market is gone. 

Noncompete agreements have also affected medicine.

Economists really don't have much influence over public policy. Indeed, the time horizons of economists are too long for politics.

The Fed's large balance sheet is more of a problem than some realize.

AI is already helping cardiac patients.

Near future energy needs may end up partially unmet, due to environmental NIMBYs.

Vienna  learned a viable response to homelessness, years ago.

It's going to take more than rental supply gains to address affordability.

India has the most confidence in the global economy.

The density of Japanese cities makes them quite livable.

Basic income advocates tend to forget how important work actually is for self respect.

We are living in an exponential age.

Biden is (belatedly) concerned about housing policy.

"Weather forecasting has come a long way."

The dollar still provides ample benefits as the world's reserve currency.

Some of the recent economic strength could be attributed to immigration.

Despite Powell's claim, a changed insurance landscape is a poor (supply side) reason to maintain higher inflation levels. In order to achieve more accurate and stable nominal representation, the Fed should acknowledge changed insurance realities now, rather than allowing them to continue affecting inflation.

The "jagged frontier" of generative AI performance.

What stands in the way of energy abundance?

"How do people across the world spend their time?"

Were it not for the owner equivalent rent, the economy appears close to equilibrium. Alas, I'm concerned it's not close enough!

Rural hospitals are facing a difficult choice when they can't afford both: emergency departments, or hospital beds?

End times, maybe?

Single room occupancy dwellings could provide one solution to homelessness.

"Prolonged scarcity is dangerous territory."

The deficit in plumbers is only growing wider.

Real estate for buyers is likely about to become more automated.

What affects recessions that have become less severe over time?

Heating could become the biggest household energy challenge.

Younger people increasingly have the weight of the world on their shoulders.

Some considerations for place-based policies. 

Brookings explains the basics of Medicare.

"economists make a big mistake when they dismiss the complaints of the public with regards to the measurement of inflation." Scott Sumner responds.  To me, it seems asset valuations matter in equilibrium due to their impact on many operational costs. For example, housing and rental valuations affect what employers need to pay their employees, which in turn affects whether companies and their employees can remain in given environments.

Training is a vital link between new technology and (consequent) improved productivity. However it's not always easy for companies to pay for the necessary skills involved. Previously I've advocated for time arbitrage to help with skills gaps in product installation and maintenance at local levels. Indeed, providing tech skills that are locally maintained, could make it easier for companies to find ready markets for their product. 

How are nursing homes able to hide so much of their profits? I had certainly been fooled, since I thought a lot of nursing homes struggled to even stay in business.

An apt explanation why the economy is difficult for some right now, but not as much for others.

There's a place in the world for slow writers.

There's good reason why "friends are always right".

Globally, plastic recycling rates are still far too slow. That's a shame, especially since plastics hold such potential for affordable housing. For that matter, pull apart plastic housing components could be made flood resistant. Ultimately, that could help reduce today's rising home insurance rates.

"Ten economic facts about rental housing." And, Timothy Taylor offers highlights from the Brookings report.

The long run neutrality of money still matters.

Why don't rising borrowing costs contribute to inflation?

Perhaps not so surprising that manufacturing is still China's favorite economic activity.

Three reasons could explain why we haven't witnessed a recession recently.

Compared to other countries, our support for climate change policies is somewhat limited.

Some visuals and facts re multigenerational households.

Debt related drivers license suspensions aren't exactly common sense.

Inflation really rubs people the wrong way.

Economic growth occurs when technology "moves into widespread use".

Two competing worldviews are close to evenly divided.

There is no moral high ground for CO2 emissions.

What caused the world to change so much in the 2010s?

Some are thinking twice about living in Florida.

It's difficult to realize how different life really was before the World Wars.

Wrap Up for February 2024

Lack of home ownership access is worse than we thought.

Even though many don't feel safe, violent crime is starting to drop.

Gauti Eggertsson talks monetary policy and the post-pandemic inflation surge with David Beckworth. Scott Sumner responds.

The U.S. needs for its allies to be stronger, not weaker.

Will EV battery swapping become an option for the U.S.?

Hannah Ritchie on future global energy demand.

Today's population growth is due to people living longer. 

A looming global trade war will be fought with (more) tariffs.

Some reasons why innovation in building materials has been difficult.

There has been an "accidental flirtation" with NGDP targeting.

"The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory"

Thankfully, this innovation in blood testing is real.

Climate change as a factor in societal collapse.

I believe this kind of recycling has tremendous potential for our housing access problem.

Perhaps industrialization shouldn't be discounted just yet. Noah Smith also references a relevant and important paper, "Local Multipliers" by Enrico Moretti.

What makes a state monopoly of money printing so durable?

Some are more likely to be swayed by misinformation than others.

At the very least, lessons could be targeted specifically to what students already know.

Everyone has been too complacent about Social Security.

What if high-interest policy is a form of fiscal stimulus?

A look at how government budgetary obligations are presently changing. And, our current level of debt was nonetheless a predictable crisis.

Mark Koyama talks with David Beckworth about historical origins for economic growth.

When the real America wrongly believes it is full, will new "Americas" rise to take its place?

For Putin, Poland is even more important than Ukraine.

The Senate has changed.

Even though Germany is vulnerable, it is hardly alone.

"How Biden botched the border"

This is an opportune moment to bring forward tax depreciation schedules (again) for multifamily housing.

Some chart visuals for climate change.

When our government no longer has enough money for Medicare revenue requirements, yet hospitals no longer have enough money to stay open without governmental help, it's time to look for solutions beyond those that are strictly monetary.

How do wages affect inflation?

Why is the work week shrinking?

Not all aspects of vital services are captured by GDP. Also, "Care Provision and the Boundaries of Production"

What might happen if a U.S. government default causes the loss of safe asset status?

Some fiscal policy projections for the next three decades.

More cities are starting to consider broader zoning for housing options.

People learn more from those who they readily relate to.

Ties between the U.S. and Europe remain closer than some realize.

Middle class expectations have been dealt a financial blow in recent years.

Which world leaders have the highest approval ratings?

Brian Potter explains how he prepares his posts for publication.

Without immigration, the U.S. population would soon decline.

What trade jobs are most in demand?

Noah Smith was disappointed in the main premise of Power and Progress.

Navalny's death is Russia's dark turning point.

China's trade advantages continue to be a problem for the West.

Diners would like restaurants to stay the same, but that's no longer possible.

What is the difference between being nice and being kind?

Don't say we weren't warned.

The NIMBYism of high skill areas also provides rationale for promoting economic development in lower skill areas.

Carola Binder's new book, Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy , will be released on May 21, 2024.

What is the American left really about?

At the very least, consumers have their own ways of dealing with inflation.

Russ Roberts and Charles Duhigg on the art of conversation.

A closer look at how Democrats lost voters with relatively less education.

Alexei Navalny as both a warning and a beacon.

Perhaps Medicare and Medicaid plan to use these new access fees for their funding shortfalls! Here are their policy changes. Nevertheless, some continue to dream of knowledge access possibilities in anti-rival forms. For me the dream is still time arbitrage for local healthcare education and access, not to mention (widely shared) knowledge preservation.

Robin Brooks is now working with Brookings.

"Britain's interwar apartment boom"

Fascism has also had its share of military failures.

How might AI help rebuild the middle classes?

Services were a big contributor to the hot January CPI number. Plus, why the variance between rent and home ownership is so important,

Some relative changes in prosperity around the country.

Suggestions for overcoming K-12 student learning losses.

In 2022, 1 in 7 cars sold around the world were electric.

Bank balance sheets are no longer a prominent part of credit intermediation.

A senior home close to Vienna has a microbrewery where its residents can work.

Inflation projections by country for the coming year.