How might artificial intelligence affect employment prospects in the near future? Answers may partly depend on how AI impacts the aggregate output of tradable and non tradable sector activity. Essentially, we may gain more societal permissions for employment, so long as we ensure that aggregate output is not compromised.
And while AI is beneficial for non tradable sectors, in certain crucial monetary respects it is better positioned to increase output in tradable sector activity. After all, tradable sectors don't face the limiting factor of time scarcity in final product. One can only hope that tradable sector potential does not become overly suppressed in the near future by the excessive market demands (price making) of today's non tradable sectors.
AI can only improve aggregate output in non tradable sector activity up to a point. Even though AI can augment time value in non tradable sector time based product, it more often does so for specific or individual efforts, rather than general worker participation. Since these (historically early) patterns of AI are occurring in restricted knowledge environments, AI tends to exacerbate income variance in non tradable sector activity, instead of contributing to greater knowledge dispersion in society.
At first glance, one might expect the professional work of knowledge providers in non tradable sectors, to be among the safest jobs in the near future. Nevertheless, market availability in these areas will still require societal permission in the form of reliable general equilibrium revenue flows. This being the case, many professionals may ultimately have less control over their management of job creation, than they would prefer. At some point, budgetary restrictions could "require" more use of AI to substitute for human capital, even though knowledge providers understandably prefer otherwise.
When considering whether AI contributes to or detracts from job creation, it helps to determine whether the relevant activity provides an initial wealth source which can utilize immediate resource reciprocity. This organizational approach doesn't require redistribution or long term debt formation, plus any budgetary restrictions it creates are mostly immediate and short term. Today's tradable sectors are the most dependable sources of initial wealth generation. Given this priority market position, they should continue to serve as reliable job creation, so long as markets maintain a steady growth trajectory.
Alas, some secondary or non tradable sector market formation is not only heavily reliant on redistribution, but also on the ability of governments to fulfill competing responsibilities without substantial disruption. Eventually, due in part to extensive price making, these forms of knowledge production could suffer losses of aggregate output, even in conditions of carefully calibrated growth trajectories. While many time based services still appear as though steady sources of employment, some of the most highly compensated employment could be disrupted by budgetary issues in the near future.
Fortunately, there are new organizational possibilities for societal permission in skilled time based services. An important difference in future capacity, however, is that full monetary compensation for the time product of knowledge providers, will not always be possible. Despite this reality, time arbitrage could make it feasible for participating groups to coordinate time based services. Advance planning towards this end, would also lessen the negative impact of income losses for all concerned.
Participating groups could especially step up quality workplace possibilities, by giving AI "permission" to assist individuals in the creation of quality time based product. One could readily imagine today's AI assistance for professionals as a starting point, since the real potential for societal gain is in raising the skills ability of all individuals in their workplaces. Even though AI can't multiply existing time scarcities, it can improve the aggregate time value of those who take part in services generation. Let's bring workplace permissions within reach of all individuals who would provide mutual assistance.
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