Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Midweek Market Monetarist Links and Summaries - 2/4/15

"Is it just the recession? We are now seeing unemployment falling sharply, but growth seems to be declining even further, to just .31% in the last 12 months, far below the growth rates that America has seen for many generations." (Scott Sumner) Investment flows and population growth
The Great Recession wasn't even approached on monetarist terms: The Great Recession happened because we ignored Friedman's ideas
If inflation were to rise in the next recession (countercyclical), the recommendation from Calomiris could be appropriate. Calomiris on Fed policy
Next recession? Still bumping bottom...The New Normal (Bill Woolsey wins!)
"The real question is how many curves." Is the Fed behind the curve?
Lots of people still want to hold Swiss francs...The issue SNB defenders don't address
More of the new economic territory...Japan continues to add jobs at an astounding rate, as unemployment falls to the lowest level in decades
It will be interesting to see how this plays out: The NGDP moment
Scott looks at the possibilities: Where would an aggregate labor comp target fail?

Scott at Econlog:
Questions for Keynesians (show me the data)
The CBO's forecast, with and without austerity
The Achilles heel of the right A few thoughts on Greece

Policymakers don't want to unleash the "beast" (Marcus Nunes)
Why bother meeting every six weeks?
When fiscal policy provides an "excuse"
"Overheat" is possibly the most unfortunate word of all:
Willingly blind to the data:
Will the replacement be better?
First, repair the growth trajectory...
Needed - a change in the monetary regime:
Apparently, someone replied "yes" too many times to "All systems go?", when the real answer was "no".

A fifty-fifty chance of deflation in 2015? (Evan Soltas)

How do AS and AD really factor into the macro data? (Britmouse)

Friedman: take the good parts and - alas - leave the rest (Bonnie Carr)
If NGDP falls, so too does the value of their debt...

Encouraging, thus far (Lars Christensen)
Lars has been busy with presentations and interviews:
NGDP as a benchmark:
Varoufakis' proposal works as a general principle for debt restructuring:

How illiquid is illiquid...really? (Nick Rowe)
One person's risk is another's haven:
A good example from Nick: "If I want to shrink the total market value of my autographs I must threaten to print more autographs."

If only a Fed audit would be worthwhile! But is that too much, to ask? (Bill Woolsey) Audit the Fed!
Bonnie Carr responds:
Bill Sums up some recent online discussions: SNB and Swiss Francs

Does Plosser still believe deflation is desirable? (Benjamin Cole)
Thus far, the seventies are still framed in the wrong economic context:

Among other things, "Monetary policy wasn't loose in the 2000s." (Kevin Erdmann)
Unfortunately, the Fed and Mr. Dudley are holding what are basically consensus positions:

How much can Greece accomplish? (Greg Ip)

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