In the past year or so, I have written several posts considering how expectations are affecting economic conditions. Still, I'm surprised that confidence in the economy has continued to drop, since the Great Recession. James Pethokoukis took a closer look at expectations measures in this post. As it turns out (and I'm not sure when these measurements began) expectations regarding economic conditions have only been worse 16% of the time, than they presently are. As to how individuals feel about business conditions, only 11% of the time has been publicly expressed in more negative terms.
Some readers may be convinced that I'm just looking for "bad news", hence I apologize if it seems that way! There are a number of bloggers who routinely emphasize the positive whenever they can. (Left leaning) Bill McBride of Calculated Risk comes to mind. Also Mark Perry (right leaning) of Carpe Diem, who was inspired by Robin William's "Dead Poet's Society" to seize the day - hence his blog name.
What about those who sometimes come across as "sticks in the mud" bloggers? Admittedly, a few have made their reputation from this particular stance. At first glance, differences in rationale for pointing out stark realities might not be obvious. For instance, there are internet Austrians who know that something "bad" will happen at some point...and then they will be vindicated! Urban Dictionary describes Debbie Downers as "Someone who prefers to allow things of seeming enjoyment pass them by." Is that really what is going on? For instance, James Pethokoukis takes an online route similar to my own, with his regular reminders that all is not yet well in the economic realm - in spite of encouraging statistical appearances.
However, some of us occasionally highlight negatives not to make more of them than they already appear, but as a reminder that those negatives provide impetus for the real economic change which is still needed. Denial continues to run quite deep, and the monetary causes of the Great Recession are still not understood - let alone the more important non monetary causes. Glass "half empty" or no, there is much more work to be done for continued economic prosperity, than policymakers have (openly) contemplated or discussed with the public.
Market monetarists who occasionally "grumble" about the loss of the former growth trajectory, do so because they are concerned about those who remain left behind, in a lackluster recovery. Marcus Nunes, Bonnie Carr and Benjamin Cole are just a few of the market monetarists who happen to be in this category. And yet, I can scarcely blame any market monetarist who seeks to highlight the positive, because we are all in need of some relief right now.
Emphasizing positives and negatives can be a delicate walk. Normally, self interest (greed?) would provide plenty of impetus for growth. But as excessive caution continues to rule the day, the once reliable progression of self interest has in some instances been replaced by fear. That's one reason why none of us can afford to become too despondent in our message. When fear takes over - as has already happened to some degree - people lose confidence in continued growth and prosperity.
Still, as a market monetarist and an advocate for growth, I have to stay on message regarding what could happen if a more inclusive economy is not sought. I want the banner of growth to remain with this group - if only because I'm clueless who else could take the growth banner right now and do it justice. Too many people have been retreating back into their political corners as of late. Too much fear underlies today's monetary policy as well, and fear makes it all too easy to lose focus on societal goals. Hence, some of us who might appear as "sticks in the mud", are trying to make certain that no one loses sight of prosperity. I believe that such a focus could still make a difference, in the long run.
No comments:
Post a Comment