Sunday, August 31, 2025

Wrap Up for August 2025

Where and how would it be reasonable to focus on changes in healthcare spending?

Nimby attitudes have gone South, but at least the South is still managing to build homes.

Tariff inflation is now "hitting with a vengeance".

The only thing worse than imperfect federal statistics, is not having federal statistics at all.  Alas, she is just the latest fired official.   "the art of character assassination on full display".

"Myths and Lessons From a Century of American Automaking"

Might data centers cause a financial crisis?

Even the simplest version of the American dream has become more difficult to achieve.

A visual for global cities larger than one million people.

Alas, Trump shares the left's lack of appreciation for free markets, hence the unexpected media respect. All of which contributes to misconceptions regarding tariffs.

Some facts about Social Security.

When data is intentionally compromised, it hurts all of us in real time. Plus, a closer look at the data revisions.

Not since 1815 has there been a tariff shock of this magnitude.

There's the AI economy, and then there's everyone else.

Six reasons why tariffs are a lousy option.

How will the mRNA cancer funding continue?

Stephen Miran is a poor choice for multiple reasons. However he also wants to overhaul the Fed.

Today's loyalty tests also require buying into factual distortions.

The gears for the American economy are completely out of whack.

Shrinking the state without a plan is nothing but vandalism.

A closer look at jobs around the world which rely on exports.

When it comes to technological change, what if this historical moment isn't as special as it seems?

AI doesn't appear to be negatively impacting employment possibilities, at least right now.

Which jobs are growing the most quickly?

AI can provide helpful advice when we're asking the right questions. But what if we're asking the wrong questions?

What if China isn't actually underconsuming?

Carola Binder provides clarification re a Fed paper that she co-wrote.

Hospital acquisitions of physicians practices do raise costs.

Science still has a reasonable amount of public support.

There's a large shift of Chinese exports to countries other than the U.S.

The red state advantage in housing certainly isn't something to take for granted indefinitely.

Even conservative economists aren't happy with this BLS commissioner pick. Indeed, "cooking the books" might happen sooner rather than later.

This summer's JEP includes a focus on housing markets.

There's only one truly walkable city in the U.S.

Food manufacturing has been a big part of the manufacturing recovery of the last decade.

A visual for global vehicle production.

For Democrats the identity fight continues. Nevertheless, many people benefit from housing abundance.

The U.S. and China are too busy sorting out their own internal issues for productive engagement.

The good news about more recent electric car batteries: they are designed to last a long time.

E.J. Antoni is "completely unqualified". But, in what instance is he not wrong?  The methods and even what is being measured in many instances are outdated. Today's data indicators came from the New Deal, but were for easily quantifiable goods.  

How might AI ultimately impact the ways economic value is measured?

Air-conditioning in Europe is still not widely used in many instances.

Will Congress alter Federal Reserve laws on Trump's behalf?

At Jackson Hole this week, it's a good time for the Fed to update its framework.

If the data can't be trusted, where are other warning signs for problems in the economy?

Are rising infrastructure costs negatively impacting AI models?

Lead paint was ultimately defeated. But first, a viable option was necessary.

The U.S. isn't the only place where checks and balances are being eliminated.

There are times in life when encouragement can make quite a difference.

Mankiw provides access to an important discussion about statistics. They also touch on tariffs and the effects of economic uncertainty.

Has the Fed "basically given up" on improving monetary policy?

Hard to believe, but the death rate from heat in Europe, is almost twice that of deaths from guns in the U.S.

The real crime problem in D.C. is one that's not easy to solve. "These young people knew they could get away with it."

How much debt reduction can realistically be achieved via economic growth?

Something about this year's Jackson Hole gathering felt quite different. Fed independence had been a lodestar for central bankers and finance ministers around the world.

For the U.S. there's a big difference between the average and median wealth of citizens.

Public schools across the U.S. are funded quite differently, depending on the state.

Will state and local governments be able to assume greater responsibility for Gulf Coast disaster recovery?

Supreme Court intervention or bond market panic could help preserve the Fed's independence. But so far we simply don't know. Also on central bank independence: "You don't know what you've got till it's gone."

Without integrity, effective public policy is impossible.

Some reasons why reactions to the Lisa Cook firing have been so muted. Looking at the bigger picture, this scenario isn't really surprising, given the reality of growing fiscal pressures.

What led to the current tariff debacle with small global packages?

The Fed doesn't actually set the interest rates the government is most worried about.

Health insurance prices are on the rise.

A visual for the global energy investment changes of the last decade.

There is too much ambiguity in the Fed's new framework.

Lagging productivity in building construction isn't just a problem in the U.S.

What is needed for U.S. statistical agencies to successfully reform?

Politics in the U.S. looks increasingly like dysfunctional middle income country politics.

Yes, AI is destroying some jobs which went to younger people. But what does that mean?

As someone without a college degree who reads Axios daily, I'm surprised that such a large percentage of their audience holds college degrees.

Batteries have become an integral part of electrical grids. For the first time, they make inventories possible in energy markets, thereby creating a just-in-time energy supply chain. All of which can lead to considerable efficiency gains. A local air conditioning company created a nearby battery storage facility not long ago. I wouldn't be surprised if that made our electric bills here a bit more reasonable. Plus, having the nearby storage likely helps as well since I live in an area that experiences more power outages than many portions of the U.S.

Powell has inspired many by staying true to the Fed's mission, despite considerable political pressure.

Many countries have transitioned to higher incomes since the 1980s.

An excerpt from Brian Potter's book The Origins of Efficiency due out in September. (Ford and the Birth of the Model T)

Are there more similarities between China and the U.S. than meets the eye? Brad Delong also weighs in.

Toronto benefits from an underground labyrinth of downtown tunnels. The downtown underground tunnels of Houston were certainly a plus for office workers, I was fortunate to enjoy those spaces especially during the seventies. 

David Beckworth discusses dollar dominance with Robin Brooks.

Somehow the night views make it easier to imagine what these ruins once held, long ago.

Electricity markets are up against the perfect storm of aging infrastructure and heightened AI demand.

What if spending on AI turns out to have been overdone?

Paul Krugman talks with Barry Eichengreen.

When it comes to free trade, the rest of the world remains engaged. Free markets still prevail, since other governments have resisted the urge to fight our chaos with more chaos of their own. My thought: as consumers in the U.S. we may have to try harder to benefit from global markets, but all is certainly not lost.