Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Wrap Up for July 2025

Is there value in reading the work of economists who are no longer with us?

Tuberculosis appeared to be almost eradicated. But that wasn't the case.

The new ideological divide looks different from the old one.

How to think about AI as an obvious time saver?

There are still lingering fears about inflation.

The GOP energy policy is an absolute disaster.

Healthcare spending is about to start rising once more.

What it takes to be middle class also depends on the state one resides in.

Norway has experienced success in taking on homelessness.

This summer could end up as one of modest stagflation.

Fortunately, the U.S. is a whole lot more than the sum of its government.  And in a similar spirit, consider this ranking.

How solid are the recent productivity gains?

"Until recently, a lot of commentary on the dollar was too alarmist."

The most egregious part of the big bill was scarcely noticed.

What does price theory suggest about AI and inequality? Task reallocation patterns will be important.

Firewood powered the early American economy. Till now there has been little record of actual firewood prices.

Central bankers have unfortunately resorted to non monetary rationale as a way to deflect blame.

In the U.S., fiscal extremism has become a mainstream consensus.

If the Fed stops paying interest on reserves, what would need to happen to make it possible?

Michael Strain provides details why tariffs will not improve manufacturing outcomes.

In terms of freedom, how does the U.S. compare to other countries?

Arnold Kling reviews Diane Coyle's The Measure of Progress.

A closer look at transitory and permanent tariff shocks.

"The real surprise is that a complacent West didn't see this coming."

How much government land would actually be practical to sell?

What might be expected of the U.S. economy over the next decade?

Carmen Reinhart discusses current debt scenarios and the future of the dollar.

The most common job in each state has changed dramatically in recent decades.

A strong vindication of "Scott Sumner thought".

AI is becoming a good time saver tool for teachers.

State dynamism has returned, even if it doesn't quite compare to the 90s.

Despite the recent calm, those "bond vigilantes" are stirring.

A closer look at Trump's proposed 2026 budget.

Despite its successes, libertarians shouldn't oversell the Milei experiment.

There are only two reasonable ways to measure the size of an economy.

Another look at the baby boom of the last century.

Changes in population aren't likely to have much impact on climate change at this point.

The dislike for wind and solar projects likely means higher electricity costs and less reliability overall.

For the U.S. a VAT might be the only way to deal with a fiscal emergency. And, The market for Treasury securities is growing too vast to rely exclusively on dealer intermediation.

Alas, fiscal dominance is a much larger threat to long term economic stability than people realize. How long might it take for this early stage to progress?

How spending compares in NATO countries for health, military and education

Core goods inflation is unusually high for this time of year.

In spite of GDP differences, living standards don't necessarily reflect those gaps.

The housing market has become a total disaster for young people.

China is now taking the lead in government funded basic research.

How accurate is the AI-pessimist story for recent collage graduates?

A closer look at how generative AI could ultimately affect productivity.

One more time: inadequate supply is the biggest problem for housing affordability.

Why has the Federal Reserve had such high expenses recently?

Some graphs for the "divorce divide".

The act of writing, is itself an act of thinking.

There are five ways to deal with U.S. budget deficits.

Which areas in the U.S. have the most vacation homes?

Will the U.S. ultimately regret its lack of basic research, when it comes to AI advancement?

The institutional protections of Fed independence are being threatened. Political influence can undo sound monetary policy and in the process cause extensive damage.

Excess administration is the biggest problem by far in U.S. healthcare costs.

Underlying the current debate over Fed independence is a crucial macroeconomic identity, the consolidated government budget constraint. "This identity must hold".

There's little if anything in MAGA that actually seeks to build better infrastructure or more importantly, new institutions.

Manufacturing jobs aren't as lucrative as they used to be.

Which global industries now face the biggest challenges finding workers?

Sometimes, "being hungry" in second place is a good thing.

Fiscal dominance would not actually lead to the low interest rates Trump wants to achieve.

Powerful leaders are generally a risky strategy for any country.

Social events have declined more than anyone might have expected.

There's been a surprising divergence between long-term real interest rates in the U.S. and the Euro zone.

Alas, caregiving for a spouse often results in negative outcomes for one's own health.

Why are we so afraid to talk to one another?

Some pertinent details in the "One Big Beautiful Bill".

The biggest problem for AI, is its lack of positive or direct impact on individual household expenditures. At the very least, there are few costs of living gains in the short term.

It turns out living near coastal waters can increase longevity.