Sunday, June 29, 2025

Wrap Up for June 2025

Joey Politano returns for an "emergency trade discussion" with Paul Krugman.

Part of my economic perspective stems from being two generations removed from this kind of life.

Farmers and ranchers may have to create different organizational approaches soon, to maintain long term gains in disease eradication.

Some highlights in the macroeconomic journey of Stanley Fischer. And Greg Mankiw shares the NYT obit.

Medicare simply doesn't cover the full extent of medical expenses that many retirees incur.

Fingers crossed, Treasury auction debt will still find plenty of buyers, especially if the "big beautiful bill" is signed into law.

What are the fastest growing job sectors?

Pharmaceutical R&D in the U.S. is not in a good place right now.

Some white collar jobs are disappearing faster than expected.

For China, tariffs are a deflationary shock.

Drones have already completely changed the battlefield.

What is the most useful definition of causality for the Great Recession?

How much has employment potential changed since the pandemic?

Foreign trade zones are becoming popular again.

How effective is Fed communication?

When enough housing "nuisances" have been outlawed, the only nuisance left is homelessness that spreads to streets and parks alike.

The social costs of humiliation are an important aspect of long term economic stability. 

Even with tariff easing, debt and interest rates remain a threat.

China's electricity generation has skyrocketed.

Tragedy though it is, there are good reasons why some are inclined to have a zero-sum mindset.

Tariffs remain likely but will probably take place via non-emergency paths.

Federal debt has become too massive for stabilization via growth policies.

Some ruminations on Trump, Musk, and Mr. Merz's trip to Washington.

Which states gain the most from manufacturing?

The unemployment level seems reasonable. But what does it actually consist of?

How did immigration come to be seen as an "invasion"?

What would a "world with no safe assets" look like?

Gentrification problems are more pronounced where housing restrictions are extreme.

Current farmer demographics in the U.S.  Also, examples of productivity gains in agriculture.

Unfortunately the wage premium in college education for low income individuals, has decreased.

A visual for the current federal deficit.

Depending on the country, some shadow economies are much larger than other countries.

Which global leaders (and their citizens) have confidence in Trump?

What did U.S. and China dealmakers actually achieve in London earlier this month?

The mid month "No Kings" protests were surprisingly widespread.

Sometimes it's easier for people to be courageous, when their friends are already so inclined.

Innovation does not always emerge from constraints, especially when those constraints are arbitrary.

A survey of changing views in 24 countries regarding democracy in the U.S.

Which college degrees have the best job outlook?

How much have tariffs passed through to customers so far?

It's too easy to confuse cutting deficits with making progress in overall debt reduction.

An economic defense for immigrants.

The goal is to anchor FIT to a "stable path of total dollar spending".

For a long time, central bankers underestimated their power.

The No Kings protests were encouraging.

A high-tariff America as the new normal.

A visual for the 25 countries with the highest life expectancy.

Measles is often a more serious disease than people realize.

U.S. tariffs may cause global inflation to diverge.

Imagine an EV battery that can completely recharge in only 18 seconds.

Economic growth from the "Big Beautiful Bill" would only be modest at best.

The supply side for China's economy appears to still be well situated for growth.

Somehow, U.S. apparel prices have actually fallen in recent months. Also, a corrected update.

How much do prices in each state differ from the national index?

The generational divide on climate change really isn't that large.

Global inflation projections for 2025 and 2026.

Closing the trade deficit would not lead to the economic benefits that some imagine.

Batteries are becoming an important tool for electrical grid reliability.

Alas, with the Israel Iran conflict, Star Wars finally comes to life. "Mark this moment!" 

Which car brands are the most impacted by tariffs? And, a visual for the most common jobs in each state.

Ultimately, regime collapse in Iran could bring more stability to the whole region.

The actual cost of collecting taxes is more extensive than I realized. And those costs were considerably higher 15 years earlier.

Comparing goods and services production in the U.S.

It's the government's credit rating that was downgraded, not the U.S. as a whole.

Especially when compared to what some countries go through, the U.S. could be doing much worse.

Among other things, these interesting graphics seem to show how difficult it is for homes to be built in the U.S. where housing demand is the highest.

"Human Resources" for hiring isn't really the same, as AI enters the picture.

Some goods from China are easier to substitute than others. Now there's a ratio for that.

Alas, "FAIT helps explain why the price level remains elevated today."

Economists see things quite differently regarding the inflationary impact of fiscal versus monetary policies. Like Scott Sumner I much prefer monetary explanations.

Bill Moyers will be missed.

So far China has avoided the extremely tight monetary policy mistake the Fed made during the U.S. housing crash.

Unfortunately the "Big Beautiful Bill" is likely to increase electrical utility bills across the U.S.