Wrap Up for May 2025

Documenting effects of recent tariff front-running. Computers and pharmaceuticals in particular show investment and inventory gains.

Tariffs on intermediate goods may cause a permanently higher price level. Tariffs can also create adverse outcomes for output and wages.

Jason Furman looks at the first quarter real GDP decline.

A visual for daily income changes for the past 30 years.

So far he has only broken things apart.

Some tariff comparisons to 95 years ago. Global supply chains didn't exist back then.

The gap is growing between U.S. liabilities and U.S. assets.

Global supply chain disruptions serve as a reminder, why it would help to adopt NGDP as a monetary stabilizer. 

What if Trump's tariffs end up sticking around for years?

Russ Roberts discusses tariffs and trade with Doug Irwin.

NGDP targeting would be an upgrade, not a departure.

Some encouragement from Allison Schrager.

Many students could thrive if they could only complete studies in bachelor's degrees close to where they live.

A negative net international investment position is not cause for worry.

I was glad to see modular construction in a list of up and coming industries. 

Where in the U.S. are cities sinking the most?

The tariff shock is still in the process of moving from the soft data to the hard data.

Brexit serves as an important reminder now, how the pitfalls of reduced trade play out gradually over time.

Robin Brooks takes a look at "exorbitant privilege".

Even outside of the U.S. "Trump-free zones" can be scarce.

The U.S. is actually not all that dependent on imports.

"there are many margins beyond price and quantity."

How do interest rates in the U.S. compare to the rest of the world?

What if the Senate approved an unqualified Fed nominee on the president's recommendation?

Taking a step back to surmise the global economy as of May 2025.

"war is returning to our world."

Trump versus the market.

Controversy over prescription drug pricing means high uncertainty for pharma research and development.

What is the current status of auto manufacture in the U.S.?

A closer look at budget baselines.

Mass production could be feasible for a much stronger wood.

China's growth figures have become somewhat murky. Here's hoping a similar scenario doesn't play out in the U.S. in the near future.

Who really wants freedom, or is the goal to simply impose the will of a certain ideology on everyone? The voice of the "boring kind of libertarian" is too often lost, one that consists of believing in both free trade trade and also free expression.

Liberation Day has morphed into Capitulation Day.

"This is no longer a serious country."

What makes China's batteries and solar panels so cheap.

The lower end of the housing market is "desperately undersupplied".

When important details are forgotten over the course of time, institutions tend to pay the price.

Despite what it may seem, the tariff level has only moved from insane to merely crazy.

States are included in this visual of the 30 largest world economies.

Justin Wolfers explains Trump's five step strategy for arbitrary tariffs.

Five books about global trade and tariffs.

Tariffs are bad but the current U.S. fiscal reality is much worse.

Devaluation has become a potent retaliatory weapon for China. Trade with China is still happening but it won't be the same.

What accounts for the dearth of new materials in the last 50 years? When it comes to scaling, the handoff between researchers and production engineers is where the trouble begins.

Once countries start to fear the future, stagnation may not be far behind.

The political threat of empty shelves.

Tutors are a proven method for addressing declining academic performance.

ChatGPT is gaining in traffic at the expense of other websites.

Some important reasons why tariffs aren't likely to have the desired effect for manufacturing outcomes.

A visual for life expectancy across the globe.

What happens if the 10 percent tariff rate becomes the new norm for the U.S.? Also, what happens if investors suddenly lose faith in the U.S.?

The Fed bears ultimate responsibility for the permanent price level increase after Covid.

A century long housing problem: Half the population is below average income, but we keep trying to force this half to live somewhere else.  

Tariffs can be nothing more than a refusal to recognize the benefits of trade.

I agree: "Shops make a city great". Commercial density - after all - is what makes walkability feasible.

We can hope the Senate's version of the bill won't be as bad, but hope is not a plan.

When societies appear to be headed towards a bad end, how do they step back from the brink? In the meantime, one name for this mess is "hypernormalization".

Does MAGA actually realize what could be lost? Unfortunately yes, which is precisely the problem.

Which countries are the most educated?

An enlightening visual for changes in U.S. family economies since 1800.

Life sciences as the largest recipient of Federal research and development funding.

A visual for dominant financial centers across the globe.

No one controls or worships markets, and only fools ignore them.

Apparently we didn't have enough tariff chaos already. Yet while many minds are understandably diverted elsewhere, AI takes close aim at white collar jobs this time.

Car tariffs aren't going anywhere at least right now. Apricitas explains, and there was also a detailed post from Brookings earlier in the month.

The U.S. is losing doctors at a historical moment when it can ill afford to. 

For the EU, attempts to accommodate Trump are likely to make things worse.

If Trump kicks out foreign students, it could result in a long term negative impact for human capital in the U.S.  Already the majority of international graduates have ultimately been lost.

Where homes are the most and least affordable in the U.S. (Mapped by state)

Will the Supreme Court be able to save this president from his folly?

Even though the Fed's goal is long term monetary dominance, the U.S. does have examples of short term fiscal dominance. And fiscal dominance is the biggest threat.

Where are understaffed air traffic control towers most prevalent?

Trump's tax bill is "historic" for all the wrong reasons.

Wrap Up for April 2025

Not surprisingly, tariff related issues are still dominating the news cycle, so I've grouped them together at the top of this post. 

The "scar tissue" of recent tariff threats and realities.

Tariffs can't and won't address trade deficits.

What if the foolhardy use of tariffs marks the peak of Trump's power?

Capital flight never ends well. "Suddenly, the world is treating America like a developing country". Some things are easy to ignore but the bond market is not one of them. U.S. Treasury bonds also aren't helped by assertions that national debt calculations could be fraudulent.

The U.S. borrowed a huge amount from foreigners. So, how does it get paid back?

This isn't the end of globalization, but it could be the end of America's participation in globalization. More here.

A collapse in ocean container bookings. "Blank sailings" may even dwarf the covid era.

This trade war is being waged without an understandable end goal. Hence the lack of clues how to actually get there. More than anything this war disrupts our own supply chains. 

How much do major economies rely on their exports?

A stagflationary shock impacts both sides of the Fed's mandate at the same time.

Even though Trump's approval ratings continue to diminish, Democrats have lost relevance in this populist era. 

This questioning of dollar dominance value, came from an unexpected source. And, a rebuttal.

Some legal considerations regarding Trump's efforts to fire Jerome Powell.

The Fed has a balancing act for managing demand in the face of tariff uncertainty.

The Trump tariff shock is likely not something that can be resolved easily or quickly.

Taking a closer look at the financial markets after the tariff announcement.

Will Trump retreat enough from his recent policy mistakes to avoid these worst case scenarios?

Some historical comparisons to Trump's pressure on Powell.

Trade resets especially hurt small businesses and make recession more likely.

A comparison of the U.S. weighted average tariff with Smoot-Hawley.

High tariffs over the years have caused plenty of economic problems for Brazil.

Powell has done a much better job than some realize.

The possibility of a sudden-stop crisis.

It's not so much about what foreigners own here, as the fact that U.S. capital produces more and profits more in foreign countries. And, it took someone who isn't an economist to make this enlightening argument.

The biggest paradox of all this is the tariff effect on potential deindustrialization.

Maybe once we finally get through all this, we won't be duped again anytime soon by protectionist and mercantilist nonsense.

Most trade wars don't look quite this silly.

How might international trade become realigned in the years to come?

Rebuilding the U.S. has been delayed for now.

Canada's provinces have had more trade with the U.S. than with one another.

There are much better ways than tariffs, to ensure the U.S. remains a prosperous country.

How will tariffs impact real incomes?

Some highlights from a tariff primer.

The choice of nations: either trade, or armies.

What makes Trump's tariffs historically unique?

This article seems an appropriate close for the month long spotlight on tariffs: Tariffs hurt long run economic growth more than anything else. And, "Monetary policy has almost no impact on how tariffs affect long run growth."

"How the war in Ukraine changed Russia's global standing."

With home building costs like these, it's no wonder new approaches are needed for housing.

What is the sex gap in global life expectancy?

Mothers in Europe are waiting longer to give birth.

Some contrasts in daily incomes for 25 countries.

When state and local policymakers mostly complain about what's happening at the federal level, are they actually focused on the needs of their own voters?

Which parts of Europe have experienced the biggest rise in living standards since 2014?

Where an ancient tradition is reviving bee populations.

Political secession is even more difficult than individual exit has been.

Power outages in the U.S. are most often the result of extreme events.

The Russian paradox in the use of human capital.

Total tax burdens by state.

Paul Krugman interviews Claudia Sahm.

Productivity has declined most in areas where construction is particularly concentrated in the urban core.

On dollar dominance and its challenges.

A visual for the $19 Trillion consumer economy in the U.S.

"50 Things I've Learned Writing Construction Physics"

How many scientists will end up leaving the U.S.?

If this turns out to be the Chinese century, what might that mean?

For Trump to fire Powell, the Supreme Court would have to intervene.

Experts become little more than mouthpieces when they attempt to dictate the terms of engagement.

What would it take for the euro to become a safe haven?

Sometimes what we think is a helper bot, is simply a teacher bot.

Where has AI proven most useful recently?

An update for the worldwide growth slowdown.

There's plenty of variance in daycare costs across the U.S.

In the nineties, rising debt and deficits contributed to a more pragmatic politics. But that didn't happen this time. And more unsettling matters may keep an unrealistic Republican budget out of view till its passage. 

What accounts for the lack of male participation in U.S. workplaces?

A closer look at what federal spending actually does for the average citizen.

Musk is hardly the first to say silly things about GDP.

Why didn't the authors of Abundance highlight the possibilities of localism?  I continue to believe that localism could be best defined by locally coordinated time use in knowledge centered services. And it is becoming especially obvious now, how private enterprises (in globalized settings) are better at coordinating physical goods management than national governments.

Liberty Street Economics takes a look at China's economy.

Tiny home villages can also be beautiful.

How did inflation get so out of control in the sixties and seventies?

The Fed needs to strengthen the political foundations of its independence.

Market Monetarists recall when central banker Mark Carney spoke well of NGDP targeting.

There may be some economic sacrifices for more manufacturing jobs. But who is really on board with this?

The CBO has been undershooting its forecasts for long-term interest rates. But the lack of accuracy in forecasting budget deficits is also quite concerning.

Some still dream of villages where people of like minds can live and work together.

Alas, "Liberation Day" was Historic: Reactions and Responses

This month's news cycle began on a fast and furious note, so I set out to post tariff and tariff related news as timely as possible. Indeed, some events from two weeks ago feel as though they happened months earlier. While things are starting to settle down, there will doubtless be further tariff information for the April Wrap Up post, which I'll group together for easier reading. Like so many in the U.S., I am overwhelmed by what our government has set into motion. I can only hope other nations are faring better, so much is at stake. With a little luck we may eventually emerge from these trying times stronger and wiser. In other words, you go, world!

Some advance warning from Promarket at the end of March, "Breaking Trust in the Government Will Not Be Efficient in the Long Run".

To what extent are trade deficits responsible for the decline of U.S. manufacturing?

Decades earlier tariffs have left a lasting mark on the structure of some U.S. markets.

Consumers are trying to preempt rising costs due to tariffs, wherever possible. 

International trade is much more important now, than it was during the unfortunate Smoot-Hawley tariff.

"This is perhaps the worst economic own goal I have seen in my lifetime."

Anti-neoliberalism grew for decades before the MAGA movement got the chance to actually put it into practice.

There is little incentive for local generic drug production with pharmaceutical tariffs.

It's the end of the world (order) as we know it.

Government trade policy by Chatbot.

Not everyone is confident these tariffs will be scaled back. Oh well, it's only 2.5 trillion stock market wealth lost.

This approach to restoring in U.S. production capacity is strictly wishful thinking.  There has been no strategic preparation or planning.

What, specifically, makes this set of tariffs so bad? 

More manufacturing is needed in the U.S. but Trump's tariffs are the wrong approach.

Might seventies style stagflation be the ultimate result of "liberation day"?

The Trump administration made a major mistake in its tariff calculations. But are they willing to fix it?

The historical Smoot-Hawley example for our times.

In this instance, Donald Trump could be compared with Liz Truss.

Tariffs lead to increased domestic costs: a textbook example.

I regret not visiting Canada when I could have, and now people there no longer welcome U.S. citizens. Understandably so. They are quite fortunate to have Mark Carney as their new prime minister.

Will the withdrawal of the U.S. from globalization "set the tone for the rest of the world"? While I certainly hope not, it remains to be seen. At the very least, the U.S. "has not been the key driver of global trade growth for two decades".

The model for the "reciprocal" tariff plan is completely incoherent. Its entire premise doesn't take the basic foundations of monetary economic exchange into account.

What radical uncertainty looks like.

Tariffs are the wrong approach for much needed improvements in manufacturing capacity.

Rules make things predictable, which makes planning possible. And when rules are broken, uncertainty also means less growth.

Multinational companies have few good options for tariff arbitrage this time around.

There is plenty of ego involved in this tariff episode.

Wait a minute, how do you have this great surge of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. if you're automating all the manufacturing this time around?

The bond vigilantes are not easy to ignore. Monetarily the U.S. could ultimately pay, especially if the rule of law continues to be set aside.

If it were to happen, a Treasury market unwind would be more serious than what happened in 2008.

A visual of China's growing global trade dominance since the year 2000.

By no means are we out of the big tariff era yet. Parts of the threat may be delayed but this is far from over.

Inflation is no longer the main concern.

As of April 9, which tariffs are still in effect?

Tariffs are also still coming for pharmaceuticals. Which of course is on top of other recent cuts on medical innovation. Nevertheless, many have run out of patience with drug companies despite what happens.

However people may feel about it now, debt has been the greatest U.S. export for some time. Indeed, our "capital account surplus" is the mirror image of the trade deficit. So, "If our trade deficit falls, our ability to get the rest of the world to finance our growth will also fall". 

The world has changed in the last nine days.

In this moment of relative calm, how far are we from the potential storm of politicized financial markets?

Tariffs are also on top of what was already declining consumer activity.

Some charts and a timeline for tariff changes.

When it comes to trade wars, China is playing a longer game this time.

This could be a trade diversion like no other. Until now the U.S. was the world's biggest consumer market. How much protectionism might this diversion ultimately cause?

There has already been a rising shift away from long-dated U.S. debt in recent years, which is likely to continue.

Wrap Up for March 2025

The Trump administration might exclude government expenditures from GDP.  And, A crypto strategic reserve is also a questionable idea.

Alas, the trajectory of our country has changed, and not in a good way.

The role of broad based schooling in intergenerational mobility.

Don't mess up the measure of GDP for political reasons. And, GDP is far more transparent than recent critics suggest.

No longer can the U.S. be categorized as an "indispensable nation".

Temperatures began their continuous upward trajectory in the sixties.

Visualizing disparities in perceptions of government corruption around the world.

A closer look at sectoral difference in aggregate productivity growth since the forties.

How much have global economies grown in the last decade?

Some highlights as of now for the medium and long term fiscal outlook.

In light of all that has transpired, should the Europeans just give those Russian reserves to Ukraine?

DOGE may not cause a recession but it's still a bad time to break things.

The U.S. now has its own self-imposed economic blockade.

A good explanation of tariffs from Doug Irwin.  And, Substitution potential affects the degree to which tariffs raise prices.

Old mine shafts are being repurposed into gravity batteries.

A peer mentor program for mental health support. I've hoped that a similar approach could eventually be taken via time arbitrage.

Studies of economic history and history of economic thought, can be some of the best sources for economic insights.

This is one of the more difficult times to understand where we are economically headed.

Why do some people wish to dominate others?

Which immigrants do people want to "get rid of" exactly?

Even if some think good can come from it, authoritarianism is still a deal with the devil.

Culture has become a flattened shadow of what it once was.

A visual for AI adaptation in various jobs.

There's no need to mislead the public about the benefits of international exchange.

A warning from the right that Trump has gone too far.

Mark Carney's work history prior to becoming Canada's prime minister.

Unfortunately, Trumpism is reducing economies of scale for U.S. companies.

Even though the tariffs will cause plenty of pain, they are only wishful thinking in terms of what they seek to accomplish.

Only a small percentage of countries enjoy full democracy.

Some of the recent zero-sum politics can be attributed to international pessimism.

Another blow for housing access.

Why does the far right have such a lack of respect for Europe?

Even though many don't care for international organizations, they are likely to be missed once they disappear.

Until the mortgage crackdown is addressed, home prices and rents will continue to rise.

Transparency in official government statistics is in danger of being sidelined.

Alas, the United States is undergoing repatrimonialization.

Ideas and information no longer spread the same ways as they did during hub and spoke network dominance.

Venice offers lessons from what was the original Doge.

China views India as an economic rival.

U.S. states are quite dependent on imports from both Canada and Mexico.

There's a good reason that China's deflation has much to do with the U.S.

The definition of GDP is an identity, not an economic theory. This is an important distinction when it comes to trade in particular.

While the economic ground may be shifting beneath our feet, it's not a given certainty.

It's probably not a good idea to suggest that market corrections are "healthy".

The national debt problem is no longer something to be worried about later on, but in the here and now.

Polymer editing could be a game changer for future plastics use.

A visualization of population changes for the next 75 years.

Land values across the U.S.

Joseph Politano takes a closer look at Trump's trade war.

Global charitable activities have declined.

What the Federal Reserve's independence means in practice.

Scott Sumner highlights a recent Macro Musings podcast which specifically focuses on NGDP targeting.

Market concentration is not the problem when it comes to having competitive options.

Noah Smith reviews Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson. 

How long will the winter last? 

The lack of sustainability in elite knowledge production.

Rewilding abandoned golf courses. Rewilding can also help flood-prone areas.

Could Canadian banks become financial hostages?

How important will solar power become for energy demand?

A better way forward for the U.S. is going to be anything but easy.

The institutions we rely on, have become practically impossible to make sense of.

Ouch! Oh my goodness.

The idea of preventing inflation by adjusting the term structure of government debt, is even more outrageous than MMT logic. It would also be quite coercive.

What will be lost if the North American trading bloc is fractured?

Which countries have the most freshwater resources?

It turns out Trump wasn't very honest on the campaign trail.

"The length of tasks AIs can do is doubling every 7 months."

Prime Minister Mark Carney for the Canada win.

Happiness levels around the world.

It has proven simpler to impose taxes on property values than land values.

State capacity: There has been too much focus on the federal government, as limited state capacity especially impacts local levels.

A (still) hopeful future for alternative home building methods. Even the Sun Belt is affected now by high home prices.

Towns are (still) creating alternative forms of money.

Attempting to "manage" trade deficits is the wrong approach.

In some respects the modern world began with reclaimed land.

Hume warned not to be obsessed with trade deficits or the balance of payments. That is still good advice.

Trump isn't a dictator yet. Might that change? But then again...

Friend-shoring was such a recent term, and yet already abandoned.

Algorithmic decisions? There are benefits and dangers.

Consumers don't have the same tolerance for inflation this time around.

Some now think that Western Civilization has been too empathetic for its own good.

The recent auto tariffs are essentially the largest U.S. tax increase in history.

What risks do vaccine markets face?

When a debt budgetary "zero" isn't really a zero at all. A decision will be made soon.

Social contracts aren't as straightforward as they may seem. But on a much lighter note, nothing is ever as it seems!

Removing support for the elderly and disabled, wasn't on anyone's radar. Now it remains to be seen if these issues are still state priorities.

In short: Why didn't Washington deal with the structural challenges that really mattered?

If Trump remains serious about automobile tariffs, the automotive industry in the U.S. will suffer. Especially since it was already struggling with the ongoing EV transition.

Yeah all that talk of "liberty" only goes so far.

Wrap Up for February 2025

Substantial innovation in refrigeration and cooling could be on the horizon.

It certainly matters that Mexico is a major trading partner with Texas. More on the possible tariffs.

Expectations for future policy also contribute to unsustainable debt.

What are the more likely options of further power consolidation?

Exchange rates have a purpose that goes beyond "benefiting" buyers and sellers of goods.

A steadfast belief in freedom also functions as a way to prevent extremism.

Will the Department of Education be dismantled?

A closer look inside the interconnection queue for electric power.

Scott Sumner touches on 18 misconceptions regarding the Great Recession.

Arbitrary chaos erodes the economic coordination that makes prosperity possible.

Hopefully the tragic mid-air collision over Washington will serve as a wake-up call to finally restructure air traffic safety in the U.S.

Approval ratings for world leaders.

It turns out manufacturing jobs now have an image problem.

How will health insurance companies fare under the Trump administration?

Which countries subsidize fossil fuels the most?

Will the Trump administration realign the balance of power?

Idaho is a close second behind Utah in population growth.

A growing share of yearly federal spending has been borrowed, regardless of circumstance.

Automaker sales growth in 2024, plus a couple of losses.

Inflation remains a problem. Also, Even if Trump hadn't been elected, this likely would still have been the case.  Still, Trump's reversal in EV adoption adds to inflation. For one thing, the price of used vehicles (specifically gas powered) are going up, in part due to the emphasis on EV adoption having backfired. So  much expense toward that end, and the associated investment costs! And, it has to be disheartening for auto manufacturers to continue EV investment when money to create charging stations is no longer available. 

Some interesting facts about U.S. education.

Can we be selfish, yet care about everyone's welfare at the same time?

A visual for the fastest growing jobs in the U.S.

Some  companies don't make the profits one might expect, yet others fare much better.

Matthew Klein has a different take than Paul Krugman on current account realities.

It turns out lime clasts in Roman concrete had an important purpose.

Noah Smith takes issue with Jason Furman's denunciation of Biden's economic record.

How dependent are U.S. building and construction industries on imports?

Sustained high levels of government borrowing will eventually lead to a different reality for us all. Also, the Brookings report.

When excess AI usage leads to brain drain. And, another form of brain drain. Regarding the latter, broad overlapping systems not dependent on nations, governments or other large entities, are what I've hoped for via time arbitrage. Of course, starting this process hasn't been easy since it means transforming elite systems where knowledge use remains tightly controlled. Yet something needs to happen soon because things are changing quickly.

It's not as easy to cut back on Medicaid now, as it once may have been.

Have we reached "peak truck"?

VATs are not like tariffs. They function more like a sales tax, except their structure is built into the production of goods and services prior to the final product.

White Americans with no college education have become more likely to end up in prison.

It's difficult for pedestrians, bicyclists and cars to maneuver in the same spaces. 

People in many prosperous countries have largely forgotten what acid rain was like.

Useful tips from fifty years of travel.

Which states depend on a sizable portion of imports from the EU?

The use of pennies and nickels is already in decline.

How much authoritarian nationalism will the public ultimately tolerate?

When it comes to getting ahead, tests can help poor students stand out from the crowd.

The Fed is more concerned about inflation this time around.

It turns out consumers spent more in November and December, in anticipation of the coming tariffs. 

Ending the penny would not mean that more nickels are needed.

It's encouraging when people are able to take sufficient time to give materials a second life.

How long can one million dollars last in retirement? Much depends on where one lives.

Seriously, where is the economic gain of giving up the EU for Russia?

Are these firings really a surgical approach?

When are populations expected to peak around the world?

Eggs: Rising prices aren't the same thing as market power.

"Average Wages in OECD Countries."

How does one distinguish "hard times" from what is simply a moment of declining dynamism?

Some highlights from an interview with Alan Auerbach at the Fed.

The auto industry in the U.S. could especially pay the price, when it comes to tariffs.

Alas, even though Elon Musk makes plenty of mistakes, he is not incompetent.

Knowledge providers whose time use really matters for their monetary worth, are suspicious of AI.

"A different opinion" which nonetheless makes sense in terms of what's happening globally.

A visual for contributions to GDP by state. And, how does home affordability compare in OECD countries?

Trump's trade war is becoming more extensive than many imagined.

Congress is likely to stay consumed by a tax fight this year.

My thoughts exactly: "What money?"

The Republican healthcare problem, in a nutshell.

Wrap Up for January 2025

It's time for healthcare in the U.S. to increase supply and enforce competition.

There are different ways to think about how many homes are needed.

To what extent does economics matter for public policy? And, who would have thought both Trump and Harris were undergraduate economics majors.

Many have already forgotten the horrors of war.

There's growing discussion regarding hyperlocal problem solving.

How can political parties get beyond the diploma divide? 

Reducing the trade deficit is no easy matter.

Which government agencies have the highest paid employees?

2025 as a year for Trump crosscurrents.

While economic conditions in the U.S. appear good on paper, it still helps to look beyond the headlines.

Which global corporations did the best in 2024?

What reform options are really left for healthcare?

Capitalism isn't the kind of well defined system it is sometimes made out to be.

Why was U.S. growth so strong in the postwar boom? (It's complicated.)

Purchasing power parity isn't a great measure for individual living standards, but what else is there?

It's not easy to keep up with the cost of house repairs (especially old houses) on a fixed income.

Some examples of greater productivity in the U.S.

Which U.S. counties have recently experienced growth gains?

The most stringent regulations affect the public sector the most. Supply-side progressivism inadvertently turned into demand-side stimulus - stimulus that wasn't even needed in this scenario.

Did Simon get lucky in his bet with Ehrlich?/

How formal and informal volunteering compares in different states. When I wrote extensively about time arbitrage, I envisioned the most important formal aspect as specific time commitments within given time frames, for smooth community interaction. Whereas informal aspects include one's choices for utilizing time with others. Informal choices are important for preserving personal autonomy, one's own interpretations regarding efficiencies, and decision making on one's own terms.

For instance: It's one thing to reduce inefficiencies, but don't do so to the point of lost resilience.

Considering the wear-and-tear they are responsible for, heavy trucks need to contribute more to road maintenance.

Which states own the most guns?

Alas, staying single and childless has become part of their survival strategy.

Congestion pricing seems like a win, but it does reduce demand for driving.

A visual for migration corridors.

There are important lessons to be learned from the LA fires. To the points Noah Smith made, I would add: we need to start establishing lots of local temporary housing for residents impacted by such tragic events. In advance, parcels of land could be set aside which serve as (at the very least) temporary locations where water and electricity are brought in for small home modules which can be easily put together and dismantled.

Which jobs are growing in the near future? Which jobs are declining?

There's an impasse between California and its insurance companies.

Technological disruption in the workplace has actually slowed since earlier periods. However the pace of disruption does show signs of accelerating.

China is repeating Japan's monetary mistakes.

What value might economists still find in Marx?

How do migrant remittances compare to foreign aid?

It's been a good year for food production.

AI increasingly matters for consumer decisions.

What makes TikTok so disconcerting?

CEOs still see risks but remain confident about good economic conditions.

A trillion dollar trade surplus isn't the positive it might once have seemed.

Which global companies are doing best in terms of profits?

A below average "misery index" for 2024.

Brookings has suggestions for Social Security reform that are worth consideration.

Should Scott Sumner steer clear of foreign policy recommendations? Or is Noah Smith closer to the truth in some areas in this regard?

The Middle East is in a good position for renewed growth.

Houston was really affordable when I was young, so it's hard to believe how much Houston has dropped in these rankings.

What constitutes a flow state and how is it achievable? These considerations are important for time arbitrage, in part because so many have daily responsibilities that get in the way of flow states which would otherwise be possible.

AI has become more useful by scaling up. My thoughts: Hopefully this will encourage additional security layers for knowledge preservation as well. Such layers aren't always possible when they include extensive monetary compensation for time based procedures.

A visual comparison of G7 economies versus BRICS economies.

Yet another reason time arbitrage systems are especially needed now.

Oddly, if a problem is widespread, people may take it less seriously.

It's important to understand why Trump is so popular.

Brian Potter takes a closer look at rising homeowners insurance costs.

What wages are required for a family of four?

Why not watermark AI?

"...the Trump tariffs of 2018 may even have led to a reduction in US manufacturing jobs."

Companies have been unwilling to give up the practice of fake job postings.

Industrial policy can be envisioned as a series of layers.

It only took 71 hours for Trump to pressure the Fed.

American workers are producing high quality products after all.

A visual for average annual expenditures.

Price markups also depend on how time is utilized in the consumption process.

Axios breaks down the market reaction to DeepSeek.

Both Democrats and Republicans fear technological change, but in different ways.

Has Japan really done so poorly since 1990? In particular, it helps to encourage consumption.

Germany has become a "cautionary tale". Marcus Nunes responds.

Chemical recycling is starting to take off in retail production.

Perhaps AI export control rules have backfired.

The only deflation that deserves to be feared, is caused by policy errors.

Is DeepSeek as important as it seems?