Wrap Up for September 2021

"Economists should be wary of ideas that cut supply."

"In a heatwave, lively streets save lives."

Do inequalities in income negatively impact the natural interest rate?

Medicare warnings have been (consecutively) issued for four years already.

Economic asymmetries have become more dominant in the last twenty years.

Growth can also mean finding "more efficient ways to use the stuff we have".

How many unfilled employment positions might actually be due to lousy software?

Conservatism is changing.

Financial crisis and the radicalized voter.

Is there rationale for being an inflation "crank"?

Scott Sumner highlights some useful posts from Trevor Chow

"Will Employers Cast a Wider Net?"

Why has innovation been so slow?

"people who expect to earn the most are less likely to sign up for ISAs."

Births never rebounded after the Great Recession.

Market monetarism is more monetarist than Keynesian.

Despite the shift in economic approach, structural remedies - for services in particular - still are not on the horizon.

George Selgin reviews Scott Sumner's latest book.

Democrats hope to increase Medicare's benefits even as it runs out of money. Wait, what?

More housing would be a single solution for multiple problems.

Matt Klein takes a closer look at recent inflation concerns.

Will state control reverse extensive societal gains? Alas, sometimes it feels that way.

Carbon footprints as a personal journey.

The more expensive the location, the more likely its inhabitants will reduce routine activities. This study is another way to think about the effect as well.

Young men are in trouble. Yet women have problems too. Why not help both.

The paper also suggests societies are no longer susceptible to this barbarianism model. If only that were true! Yet democracies could still be successful if they remain committed to economic growth and continued prosperity.

Inflation is not caused by changes in relative prices.

Why not build new versions of prosperous community which don't require government funding?

The Niskanen Center takes a closer look at the "cost disease".

A 2020 census map of American diversity.

Evergrande as the beginning of a debt cycle shift.

Is cell-cultured meat economically viable?

"Peak car" has already arrived. Perhaps the nature of the automotive chip shortage is part of the problem.

Given the institutional uncertainties of today's time centered services, paying to be insured for long term care might not be such a good idea after all. 

As it turns out, purposeful supply side limits in healthcare were a contrary example of the non rivalry of knowledge detailed by Paul Romer. 

When is monetary policy neutral? When is this not the case?

Deep-learning researchers are approaching the frontier of what today's tools can readily accomplish.

"The failure to industrialize construction makes us all poorer."

Noah Smith is also concerned about lack of productivity in construction.

Walkable Community Can't Happen Soon Enough

If only we already had more walkable communities! While they are occasionally found in high income locations, lower income groups could especially benefit from them. After all, local walkability reduces transportation costs, which in turn makes it easier to budget for local housing options. 

One wonders whether this logic is included in billionaire Marc Lore's plans which could eventually produce a walkable city. Alas, his vision is only on the drawing board at the moment. Indeed, for anyone whose life could be enhanced by walkable community in the here and now, Lore's initial starting point of 2030 must seem a long way off. According to CNN:

The former Walmart executive last week unveiled plans for Telosa, a sustainable metropolis that he hopes to create, from scratch, in the American desert. The ambitious 150,000-acre proposal promises eco-friendly architecture, sustainable energy production and a purportedly drought-resistant water system. A so-called "15 minute city design" will allow residents to access their workplaces, schools and amenities within a quarter-hour commute of their homes.

For one thing, it's not helpful to frame these efforts as cultural battles, as Tucker Carlson recently did.  In particular, petroleum production will continue to be an important part of near future market patterns for all populations. There's no need to imagine petroleum production as mostly advantageous for rural dwellers and others who embrace the low population densities associated with automotive ownership. Hopefully, petroleum production will continue to enhance a wide range of global markets, even as other energy sources gradually come to the fore. In all of this, we can encourage free markets which represent a diverse range of population densities. If national governments are willing to remain open minded re diverse market preservation, we stand a better chance of preserving market freedoms at local and state levels as well. 

Nevertheless there's some wishful thinking in this latest city building attempt, which needs to be addressed. While "human centered" communities are a reasonable desire, who really knows what that means? Fortunately, a better understanding could be gleaned via the active discovery of individual and group time preferences, through markets for time value. Time based service markets would make it easier to discern preferences that could translate into local time and space design. A free market orientation for time value, is vitally important for any "15 minute city design" to function as intended. Otherwise, participating groups would struggle to effectively coordinate times and places for getting things done.

Mutually determined individual/group needs are key for services based markets in the 21st century. In all of this, intentional markets should not mean imposing specific group preferences on other groups with different outlooks and lifestyles. Rather, intentional markets could create better defined environments that respect personal choice, so as to broaden market possibilities for everyone.