Wrap Up for March 2025

The Trump administration might exclude government expenditures from GDP.  And, A crypto strategic reserve is also a questionable idea.

Alas, the trajectory of our country has changed, and not in a good way.

The role of broad based schooling in intergenerational mobility.

Don't mess up the measure of GDP for political reasons. And, GDP is far more transparent than recent critics suggest.

No longer can the U.S. be categorized as an "indispensable nation".

Temperatures began their continuous upward trajectory in the sixties.

Visualizing disparities in perceptions of government corruption around the world.

A closer look at sectoral difference in aggregate productivity growth since the forties.

How much have global economies grown in the last decade?

Some highlights as of now for the medium and long term fiscal outlook.

In light of all that has transpired, should the Europeans just give those Russian reserves to Ukraine?

DOGE may not cause a recession but it's still a bad time to break things.

The U.S. now has its own self-imposed economic blockade.

A good explanation of tariffs from Doug Irwin.  And, Substitution potential affects the degree to which tariffs raise prices.

Old mine shafts are being repurposed into gravity batteries.

A peer mentor program for mental health support. I've hoped that a similar approach could eventually be taken via time arbitrage.

Studies of economic history and history of economic thought, can be some of the best sources for economic insights.

This is one of the more difficult times to understand where we are economically headed.

Why do some people wish to dominate others?

Which immigrants do people want to "get rid of" exactly?

Even if some think good can come from it, authoritarianism is still a deal with the devil.

Culture has become a flattened shadow of what it once was.

A visual for AI adaptation in various jobs.

There's no need to mislead the public about the benefits of international exchange.

A warning from the right that Trump has gone too far.

Mark Carney's work history prior to becoming Canada's prime minister.

Unfortunately, Trumpism is reducing economies of scale for U.S. companies.

Even though the tariffs will cause plenty of pain, they are only wishful thinking in terms of what they seek to accomplish.

Only a small percentage of countries enjoy full democracy.

Some of the recent zero-sum politics can be attributed to international pessimism.

Another blow for housing access.

Why does the far right have such a lack of respect for Europe?

Even though many don't care for international organizations, they are likely to be missed once they disappear.

Until the mortgage crackdown is addressed, home prices and rents will continue to rise.

Transparency in official government statistics is in danger of being sidelined.

Alas, the United States is undergoing repatrimonialization.

Ideas and information no longer spread the same ways as they did during hub and spoke network dominance.

Venice offers lessons from what was the original Doge.

China views India as an economic rival.

U.S. states are quite dependent on imports from both Canada and Mexico.

There's a good reason that China's deflation has much to do with the U.S.

The definition of GDP is an identity, not an economic theory. This is an important distinction when it comes to trade in particular.

While the economic ground may be shifting beneath our feet, it's not a given certainty.

It's probably not a good idea to suggest that market corrections are "healthy".

The national debt problem is no longer something to be worried about later on, but in the here and now.

Polymer editing could be a game changer for future plastics use.

A visualization of population changes for the next 75 years.

Land values across the U.S.

Joseph Politano takes a closer look at Trump's trade war.

Global charitable activities have declined.

What the Federal Reserve's independence means in practice.

Scott Sumner highlights a recent Macro Musings podcast which specifically focuses on NGDP targeting.

Market concentration is not the problem when it comes to having competitive options.

Noah Smith reviews Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson. 

How long will the winter last? 

The lack of sustainability in elite knowledge production.

Rewilding abandoned golf courses. Rewilding can also help flood-prone areas.

Could Canadian banks become financial hostages?

How important will solar power become for energy demand?

A better way forward for the U.S. is going to be anything but easy.

The institutions we rely on, have become practically impossible to make sense of.

Ouch! Oh my goodness.

The idea of preventing inflation by adjusting the term structure of government debt, is even more outrageous than MMT logic. It would also be quite coercive.

What will be lost if the North American trading bloc is fractured?

Which countries have the most freshwater resources?

It turns out Trump wasn't very honest on the campaign trail.

"The length of tasks AIs can do is doubling every 7 months."

Prime Minister Mark Carney for the Canada win.

Happiness levels around the world.

It has proven simpler to impose taxes on property values than land values.

State capacity: There has been too much focus on the federal government, as limited state capacity especially impacts local levels.

A (still) hopeful future for alternative home building methods. Even the Sun Belt is affected now by high home prices.

Towns are (still) creating alternative forms of money.

Attempting to "manage" trade deficits is the wrong approach.

In some respects the modern world began with reclaimed land.

Hume warned not to be obsessed with trade deficits or the balance of payments. That is still good advice.

Trump isn't a dictator yet. Might that change? But then again...

Friend-shoring was such a recent term, and yet already abandoned.

Algorithmic decisions? There are benefits and dangers.

Consumers don't have the same tolerance for inflation this time around.

Some now think that Western Civilization has been too empathetic for its own good.

The recent auto tariffs are essentially the largest U.S. tax increase in history.

What risks do vaccine markets face?

When a debt budgetary "zero" isn't really a zero at all. A decision will be made soon.

Social contracts aren't as straightforward as they may seem. But on a much lighter note, nothing is ever as it seems!

Removing support for the elderly and disabled, wasn't on anyone's radar. Now it remains to be seen if these issues are still state priorities.

In short: Why didn't Washington deal with the structural challenges that really mattered?

If Trump remains serious about automobile tariffs, the automotive industry in the U.S. will suffer. Especially since it was already struggling with the ongoing EV transition.

Yeah all that talk of "liberty" only goes so far.

Wrap Up for February 2025

Substantial innovation in refrigeration and cooling could be on the horizon.

It certainly matters that Mexico is a major trading partner with Texas. More on the possible tariffs.

Expectations for future policy also contribute to unsustainable debt.

What are the more likely options of further power consolidation?

Exchange rates have a purpose that goes beyond "benefiting" buyers and sellers of goods.

A steadfast belief in freedom also functions as a way to prevent extremism.

Will the Department of Education be dismantled?

A closer look inside the interconnection queue for electric power.

Scott Sumner touches on 18 misconceptions regarding the Great Recession.

Arbitrary chaos erodes the economic coordination that makes prosperity possible.

Hopefully the tragic mid-air collision over Washington will serve as a wake-up call to finally restructure air traffic safety in the U.S.

Approval ratings for world leaders.

It turns out manufacturing jobs now have an image problem.

How will health insurance companies fare under the Trump administration?

Which countries subsidize fossil fuels the most?

Will the Trump administration realign the balance of power?

Idaho is a close second behind Utah in population growth.

A growing share of yearly federal spending has been borrowed, regardless of circumstance.

Automaker sales growth in 2024, plus a couple of losses.

Inflation remains a problem. Also, Even if Trump hadn't been elected, this likely would still have been the case.  Still, Trump's reversal in EV adoption adds to inflation. For one thing, the price of used vehicles (specifically gas powered) are going up, in part due to the emphasis on EV adoption having backfired. So  much expense toward that end, and the associated investment costs! And, it has to be disheartening for auto manufacturers to continue EV investment when money to create charging stations is no longer available. 

Some interesting facts about U.S. education.

Can we be selfish, yet care about everyone's welfare at the same time?

A visual for the fastest growing jobs in the U.S.

Some  companies don't make the profits one might expect, yet others fare much better.

Matthew Klein has a different take than Paul Krugman on current account realities.

It turns out lime clasts in Roman concrete had an important purpose.

Noah Smith takes issue with Jason Furman's denunciation of Biden's economic record.

How dependent are U.S. building and construction industries on imports?

Sustained high levels of government borrowing will eventually lead to a different reality for us all. Also, the Brookings report.

When excess AI usage leads to brain drain. And, another form of brain drain. Regarding the latter, broad overlapping systems not dependent on nations, governments or other large entities, are what I've hoped for via time arbitrage. Of course, starting this process hasn't been easy since it means transforming elite systems where knowledge use remains tightly controlled. Yet something needs to happen soon because things are changing quickly.

It's not as easy to cut back on Medicaid now, as it once may have been.

Have we reached "peak truck"?

VATs are not like tariffs. They function more like a sales tax, except their structure is built into the production of goods and services prior to the final product.

White Americans with no college education have become more likely to end up in prison.

It's difficult for pedestrians, bicyclists and cars to maneuver in the same spaces. 

People in many prosperous countries have largely forgotten what acid rain was like.

Useful tips from fifty years of travel.

Which states depend on a sizable portion of imports from the EU?

The use of pennies and nickels is already in decline.

How much authoritarian nationalism will the public ultimately tolerate?

When it comes to getting ahead, tests can help poor students stand out from the crowd.

The Fed is more concerned about inflation this time around.

It turns out consumers spent more in November and December, in anticipation of the coming tariffs. 

Ending the penny would not mean that more nickels are needed.

It's encouraging when people are able to take sufficient time to give materials a second life.

How long can one million dollars last in retirement? Much depends on where one lives.

Seriously, where is the economic gain of giving up the EU for Russia?

Are these firings really a surgical approach?

When are populations expected to peak around the world?

Eggs: Rising prices aren't the same thing as market power.

"Average Wages in OECD Countries."

How does one distinguish "hard times" from what is simply a moment of declining dynamism?

Some highlights from an interview with Alan Auerbach at the Fed.

The auto industry in the U.S. could especially pay the price, when it comes to tariffs.

Alas, even though Elon Musk makes plenty of mistakes, he is not incompetent.

Knowledge providers whose time use really matters for their monetary worth, are suspicious of AI.

"A different opinion" which nonetheless makes sense in terms of what's happening globally.

A visual for contributions to GDP by state. And, how does home affordability compare in OECD countries?

Trump's trade war is becoming more extensive than many imagined.

Congress is likely to stay consumed by a tax fight this year.

My thoughts exactly: "What money?"

The Republican healthcare problem, in a nutshell.

Wrap Up for January 2025

It's time for healthcare in the U.S. to increase supply and enforce competition.

There are different ways to think about how many homes are needed.

To what extent does economics matter for public policy? And, who would have thought both Trump and Harris were undergraduate economics majors.

Many have already forgotten the horrors of war.

There's growing discussion regarding hyperlocal problem solving.

How can political parties get beyond the diploma divide? 

Reducing the trade deficit is no easy matter.

Which government agencies have the highest paid employees?

2025 as a year for Trump crosscurrents.

While economic conditions in the U.S. appear good on paper, it still helps to look beyond the headlines.

Which global corporations did the best in 2024?

What reform options are really left for healthcare?

Capitalism isn't the kind of well defined system it is sometimes made out to be.

Why was U.S. growth so strong in the postwar boom? (It's complicated.)

Purchasing power parity isn't a great measure for individual living standards, but what else is there?

It's not easy to keep up with the cost of house repairs (especially old houses) on a fixed income.

Some examples of greater productivity in the U.S.

Which U.S. counties have recently experienced growth gains?

The most stringent regulations affect the public sector the most. Supply-side progressivism inadvertently turned into demand-side stimulus - stimulus that wasn't even needed in this scenario.

Did Simon get lucky in his bet with Ehrlich?/

How formal and informal volunteering compares in different states. When I wrote extensively about time arbitrage, I envisioned the most important formal aspect as specific time commitments within given time frames, for smooth community interaction. Whereas informal aspects include one's choices for utilizing time with others. Informal choices are important for preserving personal autonomy, one's own interpretations regarding efficiencies, and decision making on one's own terms.

For instance: It's one thing to reduce inefficiencies, but don't do so to the point of lost resilience.

Considering the wear-and-tear they are responsible for, heavy trucks need to contribute more to road maintenance.

Which states own the most guns?

Alas, staying single and childless has become part of their survival strategy.

Congestion pricing seems like a win, but it does reduce demand for driving.

A visual for migration corridors.

There are important lessons to be learned from the LA fires. To the points Noah Smith made, I would add: we need to start establishing lots of local temporary housing for residents impacted by such tragic events. In advance, parcels of land could be set aside which serve as (at the very least) temporary locations where water and electricity are brought in for small home modules which can be easily put together and dismantled.

Which jobs are growing in the near future? Which jobs are declining?

There's an impasse between California and its insurance companies.

Technological disruption in the workplace has actually slowed since earlier periods. However the pace of disruption does show signs of accelerating.

China is repeating Japan's monetary mistakes.

What value might economists still find in Marx?

How do migrant remittances compare to foreign aid?

It's been a good year for food production.

AI increasingly matters for consumer decisions.

What makes TikTok so disconcerting?

CEOs still see risks but remain confident about good economic conditions.

A trillion dollar trade surplus isn't the positive it might once have seemed.

Which global companies are doing best in terms of profits?

A below average "misery index" for 2024.

Brookings has suggestions for Social Security reform that are worth consideration.

Should Scott Sumner steer clear of foreign policy recommendations? Or is Noah Smith closer to the truth in some areas in this regard?

The Middle East is in a good position for renewed growth.

Houston was really affordable when I was young, so it's hard to believe how much Houston has dropped in these rankings.

What constitutes a flow state and how is it achievable? These considerations are important for time arbitrage, in part because so many have daily responsibilities that get in the way of flow states which would otherwise be possible.

AI has become more useful by scaling up. My thoughts: Hopefully this will encourage additional security layers for knowledge preservation as well. Such layers aren't always possible when they include extensive monetary compensation for time based procedures.

A visual comparison of G7 economies versus BRICS economies.

Yet another reason time arbitrage systems are especially needed now.

Oddly, if a problem is widespread, people may take it less seriously.

It's important to understand why Trump is so popular.

Brian Potter takes a closer look at rising homeowners insurance costs.

What wages are required for a family of four?

Why not watermark AI?

"...the Trump tariffs of 2018 may even have led to a reduction in US manufacturing jobs."

Companies have been unwilling to give up the practice of fake job postings.

Industrial policy can be envisioned as a series of layers.

It only took 71 hours for Trump to pressure the Fed.

American workers are producing high quality products after all.

A visual for average annual expenditures.

Price markups also depend on how time is utilized in the consumption process.

Axios breaks down the market reaction to DeepSeek.

Both Democrats and Republicans fear technological change, but in different ways.

Has Japan really done so poorly since 1990? In particular, it helps to encourage consumption.

Germany has become a "cautionary tale". Marcus Nunes responds.

Chemical recycling is starting to take off in retail production.

Perhaps AI export control rules have backfired.

The only deflation that deserves to be feared, is caused by policy errors.

Is DeepSeek as important as it seems?

Wrap Up for December 2024

Comparing GDP data for U.S. states and G7 countries. Some of these stats are hard to believe:

The affordable housing shortage also affects rural areas in the U.S.

The trade-off between excessive budgetary obligations and consumer savings in healthcare, is starting to become more obvious.

Robin Brooks highlights how the dollar and global markets have responded to the election.

Hmm, J.D. Vance might understand dollar dominance better than Trump does.

Admittedly, inflation has received a lot more attention than recent productivity gains. (Even if some believe the latter aren't as substantial as they appear)

Scott Sumner highlights the problem of debanking.

In contrast with nursing home populations, homebound seniors who live alone receive little attention from policymakers.

It's not easy to be respectful of "underdevelopment" by way of words.

Some international considerations regarding the return of Trump to power.

What happened to the economic convergence of nations?

The destabilizing circumstance of manufacturing dominance.

Healthcare costs are making it difficult for employers to hire for middle income positions.

Even Cowen and Tabarrok don't fully recognize why money is important.

A new Google AI weather model is quite promising.

Vertical farming is a great option. So why isn't it a solution for hunger?

Homelessness isn't just about money or the lack thereof, it also involves relationship issues.

It turns out that (apparent) wage growth isn't necessarily a panacea during periods of high inflation.

Metro growth since Covid.

What stands in the way of the clean energy transition.

If Trump should have more say over interest rates, what then?

Addressing water infrastructure challenges.

If health insurance companies aren't really making that much money, then what's going on?

Scott Sumner explains the framing of The Midas Paradox.

Visuals help determine how national GDP continues to change.

Scott Sumner reflects on Paul Krugman. Paul Krugman has had considerable influence as an economist.

What really accounts for productivity differences between the U.S. and Europe?

Plenty of people blame Boomers for "wanting" to stay in homes bigger than they actually need, but moving is no longer as easy as it once was.

A visual for ownership of U.S. debt.

How has demand for job skills changed since the turn of the century?

Will Marty Makary insist on big changes for the FDA? 

Does money actually function well as a store of value?

Some of American triumphalism is a bit overstated.

Where are the methods for calculating anecdotal value?

When it comes to NGDP targeting, it's still possible to leverage the wisdom of crowds.

Joey Politano on recent productivity gains. He also spoke with David Beckworth recently about trends in productivity growth.

There were good reasons why Beethoven also became quite the businessman.

Can the Industrial Revolution be attributed more to push or pull factors?

The U.S. has by far the highest share of global debt.

The Fed did not adopt the policy regime that was advertised to the public. And supply side problems were no excuse.

When rising wages affect work decisions.

Which states were the happiest this year?

Dry farming methods are becoming more valuable than ever.

It's good to know there are many more coffee species besides the (only) two which are presently grown for profit.

EU firms are reluctant to innovate, in part due to the fact failure costs more than it does in the U.S.

When it comes to inflation, framing is important.

What happens (eventually) when a country pegs its currency too high in relation to U.S. dollars? Alas, this is a standard macroeconomic mistake.

JP Koning's thinking on Bitcoin has evolved over the years.

Governments have practically given up on problem solving and experimenting to find solutions.

There are no easy fixes in U.S. healthcare.

Homes tend to be newer in the west and south.

What is especially significant about inflation? Also, Scott Sumner explains his framing for inflation dynamics.

Some 2025 predictions from Axios readers.

Heart disease is unexpectedly becoming a problem for young people.

When cities lose sufficient public order, everyone pays the price.

It turns out satisfaction with a brand is not the same thing as reliability.

Jason Furman highlights our fiscal challenges.

What makes people in the U.S. richer than the Japanese?

How many citizens hold passports in the U.S.?

The mass marketing of Christmas gifts actually created positive boundaries.

Some jobs are made truly difficult because Congress decides the work isn't actually necessary.

Short distance migration is dominant, but longer distances are becoming more common.

China's leadership may not be prepared for an inevitable economic downshift.

A visual for global auto production.

Some say longevity depends on part on continual learning as one goes through life. Leisurely research seems to fit that category well.

Immigration is simply not as dangerous for the U.S. as it is often made out to be.

Unfortunately the Fed may not move towards NGDP targeting any time soon.

Jason Furman recommends five recent economics books. I didn't realize the degree to which the U.S. is more hostile to trade than many other countries.

A thread about bringing back small towns..

Until recently the Fed has sought to convey a clear path. What changed?

Wrap Up for November 2024

There are surprising similarities between China's recent development, and that of the nineteenth century U.S.

What happens when government assistance is phased out as low incomes rise?

A visual for public perceptions of safety around the world.

For many such as myself, the long inflation of the seventies wasn't near as unsettling as the (hopefully) brief inflation of our time. 

Vacancy rates as an indicator of housing shortages.

By no means is insurance availability a guarantee of healthcare access.

Oral traditions matter for economic outcomes.

American households have changed a lot since 1960.

More job reallocation has occurred in areas where human capital was already high.

Some thoughts on an era of nationalism and fiscal excess. Plus, it was a bad year for incumbent parties.

Which countries have the greatest diversity of natural resources in considerable amounts?

What makes quartz from Spruce Pine, so important for semiconductor manufacture?

Robots have turned out to be useful for some tasks in nursing homes.

Economic considerations regarding the election.

The percentage of the population suffering from long Covid is larger than expected.

The professional class is out of touch with everyone else.

Jason Furman recommends five books on economic policy.

What is the accuracy of immigration data?

USA Facts highlights the government budget deficit.

It helps that low-carbon tech doesn't need as many resources as before.

A different take on the Trump identity.

Might the election have turned out differently, if the Fed was more careful about curbing inflation?

A visual for fiscal receipts versus fiscal outlays.

What might current diminishing returns tell us about the future of AI?

Why is there less room to cut interest rates?

Carola Binder explains "Where inflation comes from".

Even though politics has changed, economic principles haven't.

Zero sum thinking helps to explain the nature of political divides.

How the other ten percent lives: People who don't drive cars.

Perhaps we shouldn't be too worried about near future energy demand.

If tariffs really must be increased, at least make them specific in nature.

Wind turbine service technicians in particular, should find it easy to get work.

Some birth and fertility statistics. 

People without college degrees remain too fragmented and isolated from one another to function like the working classes of earlier eras. Some want Democrats to "win" these voters back. However, as long time readers may recall, I believe these groups would fare better with new institutional frameworks which specifically serve them. In particular, institutions which aim to create good deflation in a wide range of domestic economic activity.

Runs on otherwise healthy banks, aren't really that common.

Even though college is no longer always seen as a viable option, apprenticeship opportunities are growing.

Brian Potter takes a closer look at road quality.

Congestion pricing has worked well for other nations.

A visual for businesses most likely to survive in the last decade.

Further speculation on potential economic effects from Trump's policies.

Nominal GDP is not given enough consideration, to determine whether inflation is supply or demand driven.

The race to procure trade goods before the tariffs hit, could skew economic data for a while.

Finance was important for the emergence of both numeracy and literacy.

A visual for the world's largest goods exporters.

Different generations have different ideas as to what financial success consists of.

Texas may have to look far and wide for construction help, if many of its migrant workers are deported. A suggestion from this Texan: why not create more productive frameworks for building components in localized factory settings, frameworks which could appeal to a far wider range of workers than is presently the case? Such settings could also provide better employment stability, not to mention more reliable building component options for consumers.

There has been too little symmetry in the Fed's inflation target, in recent years.

Humanity is shrinking. Chances are, we have to make life a lot more affordable, if this reality is to be reversed.

America's recent productivity gains: But how much is as real as it seems?

Economics lends a different perspective to the degree things really matter.

How realistic is Scott Bessent's 3/3/3/ strategy?

Middle income trap issues are also relevant for the U.S.

Matthew Klein interviews Austan Goolsbee.

The opportunity cost of wanting both higher energy production and greater manufacturing capacity.

What if politics isn't actually the central component of history?

Middlemen add to grocery costs, but what makes them necessary for the supply chain in the first place?

Wrap Up for October 2024

Monetary policy shocks tend to be more problematic when U.S. presidents pressure the Fed.

Bernanke was too focused on interest rates to keep monetary policy on a truly stable path.

Natural disasters have greater effects on mortality than is immediately obvious. In some instances there can be "a decade of hardship on tap".

Subjective experiences will always be important for human identity. Which is why they also matter for how AI ultimately evolves. 

Encouraging data for business dynamism.

"The rise of coal was not caused by deforestation. Deforestation was caused by the arrival of cheap coal."

Neither party is ready to deal with the current realities of Social Security.

Where is traffic the worst in the world?

The equation which still leads to confusion.

When critics and supporters alike envision AI primarily as a human remover, that's a problem.

Scott Sumner provides highlights re the recent Cowen/Tabarrok inflation debate.

Would U.S. ports benefit from further automation? It's complicated.

A visual reminder that damage costs from hurricanes are not always about wind speeds.

State rankings for healthcare access.

Jonathon Hazell and David Beckworth talk inflation and the Phillips Curve.

Our time use decisions include daily priorities. And the specific activities we focus on, affect our long term memory.

Axios highlights the current rise in employer healthcare costs.

The Republican relationship with welfare recipients has changed. Plus, EIG tracks the rise in reliance on government income. Small wonder the federal deficit has been missing from political discussions this year.

Public school enrollment continues to decline across the board.

"even though the U.S. controls its own currency, its debt would become unsustainable as it approaches 175% of GDP." Given this reality, despite political inclinations towards fiscal dominance (over monetary dominance), fiscal dominance would certainly be a temporary phase.

Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson: Brian Albrecht's thoughts on the 2024 economics Nobel. Alex Tabarrok provides examples of their work over the years. Timothy Taylor reflects on their contributions to institutional frameworks. However, Noah Smith feels the Nobel prize has become too much of a popularity contest. Yet Scott Sumner notes how there are times when anecdotes matter. Also, an earlier critique.

What makes Wisconsin a different kind of state?

When it comes to our time use options, what if we've been too focused on constant productivity?

The most likely scenario if there were a Trump sweep.

Late-career entrepreneurs create more innovation than is generally realized.

Many older adults live alone in spite of cognitive impairments.

Despite fears about AI taking jobs, in some instances it is actually making jobs more pleasant.

Adam Tooze "comes clean" about his cognitive dissonance on inflation.

Growing fiscal debt realities nonetheless clash with growing fiscal needs - not just in the U.S. but around the world. Healthcare, military needs and the green transition are all on the line. And fiscal tightening has also become politically unfeasible. 

Where do people feel safe enough to walk outdoors at night?

Mapping tech talent hubs across North America.

Research and development spending in the U.S. is still quite strong.

New tenant rent remains somewhat elevated. Axios explains how this could pose problems till 2026.

Monetary circumstance can also lead to disequilibrium.

Timothy Taylor considers ways to improve the healthcare system in the U.S.

A quick summary regarding global economic stability.

Some home price to income ratios for large cities.

Reflecting on Covid-era inflation and how this could affect possible revisions in the Fed framework.

GDP per capita by state.

In many instances, simple solutions are best.

Economists have learned some important lessons about real shocks and recessions.

What are the risks of Trump's proposed economic policies?

The "triple pivot" isn't easy.

Tim Harford frames the Baumol effect as a good-news story.

When problems are complex, complex policy regimes are still not the answer.

Some differences between Republican and Democratic platforms regarding the Fed.

From the heyday of the secretary, to the office of tomorrow. 

The economics profession is apparently the first loser of this election.

An eighth grade test from 1912 offers a fascinating comparison to today's educational expectations.

Physical strength is still required for a wide range of work.

Density zones as a national approach to housing access and affordability.

The U.S. continues to pull ahead of other advanced economies.

How do people in the U.S. feel about Generative Artificial Intelligence?

Given current institutional constraints, is it feasible for either party to really make a difference in healthcare right now? That said, there's one important caveat: circumstances regarding abortion related issues are likely to change.

Post-Helene, solar-powered generators came to the rescue in North Carolina. Indeed, as anyone who has been without power for more than a couple days knows, it's one heck of a relief when noisy gas generators finally go silent. Not to mention, gas for those generators can run thousands of dollars a month.

Tariffs are even worse than we thought.

Austerity will become necessary sooner rather than later. But what forms might it assume?

Wrap Up for September 2024

A novel technique that could potentially reduce beach erosion.

Scott Sumner's new blog takes a more expansive and optimistic approach.

How might we expect solar costs to evolve?

Americans have practically stopped moving, and those who still do, tend to have college degrees.

The founder mode of running a business is not the same as a manager mode.

"If I can stay healthy for two years, the land is safe"

The U.S. is gaining ground in the global chip market.

Grocery store earnings have performed differently from other retail indicators.

The homicide rate clearance decline is race specific.

Nazis? Some suggestions for dealing with the real thing.

Top export markets for G20 countries.

A focus on escaping the middle-income trap.

When it comes to human capital, one group's "innovation" can be another group's disappointment. Nevertheless, there remain numerous challenges on the horizon for public education. Texas schools are finding ways to address teacher shortages.

Monetary policy forecasting is difficult because the natural rate is not visible in real time.

Working class men continue to struggle in society.

Inflation is worse (once again) at the 25th percentile by income.

Rankings for both best and worst states to retire in.

Why is taxation of unrealized gains impractical? When it comes to taxation, simple really is better.

Some EU countries are far more expensive than others.

Overall growth has been higher in regions which don't excessively rely on their healthcare and educational institutions.

For small towns, it's a challenge to maintain necessary skills, especially for the elderly.

Doubling down on tariffs would not be the panacea that Trump imagines.

Price gouging? Don't forget the recent exodus of low wage workers which led to higher wages for employees in retail and food manufacturing.

Many advances in productivity are being captured by industry leaders. Still, there are other causes as well for the productivity slowdown.

While mosquitoes remain a problem here on the Texas coast, surprisingly they're not as overwhelming as they used to be.

Adam Tooze on the recent EU productivity report from Mario Draghi, here, also here

Nevertheless the Draghi report is a reason to feel confident about the U.S. economy.

Are cities where consumption is greater than production, the "wrong" kind?

Letting kids learn at their own pace.

Output measurement costs include their own trade-offs.

Are we working more, or less? Much depends on what is actually being measured.

New data sets which highlight housing regulations.

What accounts for the healthcare spending slowdown, and will it last?

Natural disasters are becoming an existential problem for insurers. Lack of insurance availability also creates greater housing supply challenges.

It's been a long time since housing costs were important to presidential election concerns.

Russ Roberts discusses Blind Spots with Marty Makary.

Current global supply of minerals needed for the energy transition.

In the U.S. the share of international students continues to fall.

How far will $100 go in each state? Despite greater purchasing power, Southern states are having more problems paying their bills.

Draghi's report is useful. But what might get in the way?

How much does openness to trade affect growth?

Supply side inflation is temporary, but demand side inflation is permanent.

Alas, recent healthcare rankings for the U.S. aren't so surprising.

Conflict costs are one reason people hate inflation.

Some highlights from Noah Smith, including a thoughtful article re Britain's economic woes.

How do deportations affect the economy?

Making the case for NGDP targeting.

If not mass low skill immigration, then what can revive declining places?

For once, recessionary forecasts seemed as though a false alarm.

How much might countries be expected to grow over the next decade?

The good news about low-carbon technologies is that far less mining is involved.

Changes in working age populations over the next decade.

Not enough attention is being centered on supply side vulnerabilities. Parts I and II.

Restaurant service seems lousy these days. But what does that really mean?

The share of manufacturing workers is on a slow decline.

Remember when Congress believed fiscal stabilization was important?

Noah Smith and James Pethokoukis on technological progress.

Dealing with medical debt is complicated, to say the least.

This article inadvertently makes some of the best arguments I've come across, for time arbitrage as an economic unit of value.

A map of states depicting loneliness.

The U.S. is likely to experience the biggest accumulation of gross debt in the coming five years.

Voters haven't seemed overly concerned about tariffs across the board. That needs to change! Noah Smith cites an economic misunderstanding which may be contributing to the problem.

 Unfortunately, Trump's plan for mass deportations is only the latest historical example.