Monday, July 31, 2017

Wrap Up for July 2017

Sometimes it takes more than confidence to improve an economy. In "Confidence Boomed After the Election. The Economy Hasn't", Neil Irwin asserts that psychology is only loosely connected to actual growth.

James Pethokoukis interviews Richard Reeves, author of "Dream Hoarders"

Douglas Campbell suggests that Ben Bernanke could be "in a bit of denial" regarding slower GDP growth.

The "gap model" just doesn't work.

Congress and the Fed need to have an "intelligent conversation on monetary policy".

"...about two-thirds of world trade now is involved in value chains that cross borders during the production process."

How the Fed changes the size of its balance sheet.

Pseudoerasmus discusses pro-social institutions

Bill Woolsey explores the possibilities of NGDP targeting in a small open economy

As more funding for social programs reverts from Washington to the states, disability insurance has increased in some states even as funding for other programs has shrunk in the past decade.

Let's not forget the direction he took in 2008...
"The moment before the patient needed emergency surgery, Warsh and a few of his colleagues were getting ready to discharge the patient from the hospital."
And a response from Douglas Campbell

When required qualifications really start to get in the way of societal coordination...
"Our economy needs more alternative career pathways that don't require piling up more academic degrees as a  starting point."

Job creation could be as much as 23% below the long-run trend.

From a growth accounting perspective, weak total factor productivity is the major issue.

Nick Rowe imagines monetary policy for a central bank with no balance sheet

David Beckworth:
Due to the knowledge problem, Fed officials may not know in real time, what kind of shock (supply or demand) is causing changes in inflation.

The inspiration of trial and error

Scott Sumner says goodbye to Boston and shares memories of the cross country journey

Timothy Taylor looks at the cycles of cities

Hayek mistakenly thought that deflation would have structural benefits

Neoliberalism has something for everyone

Poorly thought through legislation can be reminiscent of the damage tight money inflicts on populations: Dismantling extensive services production - without the creative destruction of service production alternatives - would presently leave a diminished marketplace

In "The Growth of Economic Thought", Henry William Spiegel stressed "There can be no measurement without theory". I was glad to note Roger Farmer emphasize the same in a recent post, "Post-Keynesians and New-Keynesians: A Lesson From Evolutionary Biology"

Timothy Taylor highlights a recent paper, "Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Countries: A Long-term Perspective"

How extensive is Venezuela's economic catastrophe?

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