Monday, November 30, 2015

Wrap Up for November '15

2015...another month to go. If there were anything I could wish for the coming year, it would be that more public dialogue take place in terms that people from all walks of life can understand, and be able to discuss without reactive dismissal. I know that's asking a lot. But I at least have to hope, in a time frame which feels as though an economic pause...

Perhaps the singularity is not really so near...

Lars Christensen provides a link to his recent lecture at Columbia University on the Euro crisis:

James Alexander and Mark Sadowski make an important point:

Jeffrey Hummel notes that faith in the Federal Reserve system, is similar to an unreflective faith in government economic management.

A paper from Emily Washington and Sanford Ikeda, "How land use regulations hurt the poor".

James Pethokoukis, "Rise of the Robots: Nearly half of all work activities can be automated with current tech". My response: consider that future automation will vary considerably, in part due to a region's prosperity...or lack of it. Areas with less access to global capital may not substantially automate (even should they wish to), hence respond with some version of "slow economies" and other activities involving less skilled labor. The same would be just as true for areas in developed countries, as anywhere. In these circumstance - without knowledge use systems (or some equivalent) for services formation - many locations would remain dependent on government programs, the already stretched services capacity of prosperous regions, and of course the hopeful redistribution of robot wealth from elsewhere, as opposed to the potential wealth of human capital.

The loss of the physician patient relationship, is by far the best example of a growing need for symmetric time value, in order to generate new services product. Unlike asymmetric compensation (where institutions compete by gradually devolving to the least amount of compensated time value possible) symmetric compensation allows people to rediscover social and intellectual interactions which matter at a personal level, given the scarcity of one's own time use options. And do so on terms which generate new wealth.

"The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks" by Beaudry, Green and Sand, November 2013. I would have provided a link for this study some time ago, but the link which had previously come up appeared to be broken, and this one should be good:

Greg Mankiw points out the fact that Obamacare is as much about redistribution, as reform. Regular readers certainly know how I feel. Not much "reform" occurred. Service providers were actually further constrained through Obamacare, even as healthcare services will lose more input from time value in response to gradual monetary tightening in the U.S. The income loss across most sectors would not be necessary, if more individuals received the right to heal and participate in knowledge based services production at local levels. More wealth in aggregate for all income capacity would be the result.

James Alexander explains Why the huge expansion in base money hasn't produced inflation and only slow growth.

Again, readers may realize how I feel about civil forfeiture: the growing lack of balance between aggregate resource capacity versus the capacity of time aggregates, desperately needs to be addressed. Otherwise governments will have insufficient money for budgets, even though they find reason to confiscate more and more of what citizens have.

Next step: bring the old and the young out of their segregated status, so as to make them a renewed part of the marketplace:

Scott Sumner offers a simple version of how he views macro in this Econlog post. 
Also, from the Cato conference:

This cartoon provides a bit of (much needed) humor for the month!

In this post about his new book on the Great Depression, Scott Sumner also provides a useful flowchart summary:

Lingering effects of the recession: 63% of millennials don't own a single credit card.

"In many of these countries, manufacturing's share of economic output continued rising even after the employment share peaked."

Dani Rodrik's revised paper on premature deindustrialization:

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