Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Midweek Market Monetarist Links and Summaries - 7/8/15

The most important monetary lessons have yet to be learned (Marcus Nunes)
Milton Friedman had a pretty good idea what might happen:
Even Bill McBride has scaled back his expectations somewhat
...but how well is this strategy working out?
Without adequate consideration of these charts, perhaps some could be forgiven for thinking that Greece is just experiencing slow growth:

Part 3 of series (Mark Sadowski)
Does QE drive down nominal treasury yields?
Mark adds US bond yields to the baseline VAR:

Debate can be fun! (Lars Christensen)
Why is Turkey in a better position?

"If this is what an exit from the Euro looks like, who wants to follow Greece in exiting the Euro?" (Nick Rowe)

At first, a gold standard without a (national) gold currency seemed impossible (David Glasner)
"The point of the gold-exchange standard was thus to reduce the world's monetary demand for gold, thereby limiting the tendency of gold to appreciate and for prices in terms of gold to fall."

"Greece needed monetary support in order to make the reforms palatable and they did not get it." (Bonnie Carr)

A chart which shows the extent of the supply constraint (Kevin Erdmann)

From Scott Sumner (*apologies for missing links, see below) "...U-6 is still falling rapidly, and will soon arrive in the 8% to 10% range considered normal for U-6." The new jobs report (July 2)
"It's smooth sailing in Denmark." Don't bet against the Danes (July 4)
" China and Denmark become more capitalist, Argentina and Greece become more statist." Independence Day for Greece! (July 5)
"...the EU did not provide for any backup plan." When Friedman  and Krugman agree (July 7)

Scott at Econlog
"...when you are both a supply and demand-sider, the choices don't look quite as easy." Why I'm a supply and demand-sider
A positive supply shock or a positive demand shock? The difference matters. The Fed shouldn't reason from a quantity change
Probably yes. Does Germany "care" more about Greece more than America "cares" about Puerto Rico?
"The no vote will probably have a net negative effect on the global economy." Greece: What are the markets telling us?
"In macro, look at the speedometer (NGDP futures prices) not the position of the accelerator pedal (interest rates). If the Fed switched from interest rate targeting to NGDP futures targeting, the market rate of interest would always be exactly equal to the Wicksellian rate of interest." Raising rates tightens money, but isn't (necessarily) tight money

How can the forecast be so low? (Justin Irving) 
Justin takes a look at the ongoing Greek saga:

*Every once in a while, there's a technical glitch this tech challenged blogger can't remedy! Now is one of those times, as my home computer isn't presently able to access posts from The Money Illusion. Since these weekly links are quite dependent on Scott's posts, it's probably best that I take a break from MM links - at least for now. I have been grateful for the chance to provide the Wednesday morning posts for almost two years, and it has been quite a learning experience for me. Hopefully these links have helped out some of my readers from time to time, as well.

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