Some readers are wondering what happened, as I generally post often! My computer was in the repair shop for over a week. Thus I've got lots of catching up to do, online. As a result, this week's links don't quite do justice to the wealth of Market Monetarist posts from the past two weeks. I'll at least include some from the previous (missed) week here, as well.
The winning prediction, five years on (Marcus Nunes): http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/01/26/backtesting/
Was there a break in the time series of U.S. RGDP: http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/01/27/will-bernankes-legacy-be-having-introduced-a-unit-root-in-us-rgdp/
A "scientific fact"? Really? http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/01/27/quote-of-the-day-3/
George Selgin couldn't believe what Prescott said, either. Or Paul Krugman.
The markets lose confidence: http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/01/29/if-it-was-widely-expected-the-fomc-decision-why-did-markets-fall-significantly-on-the-news/
More confusion, than direction: http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/forward-guidance-can-easily-lead-you-astray/
Is this really momentum? http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/what-the-fomc-says-and-what-the-facts-show/
When success isn't understood: http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/01/31/why-should-success-frighten/
Will they escape the blame? http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/02/01/you-cant-be-a-monetary-hegemon-and-then-duck-responsibility-or-can-you/
Job recovery charts after recessions have become shallower over time:
http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/02/03/do-you-really-need-to-crunch-10-million-data-points-to-understand-whats-going-on-in-the-labor-market/
Is it time for complacency, already?
http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/according-to-the-bea-in-a-couple-of-years-real-output-rgdp-will-be-back-to-potential/
Ed Prescott, bond buying and rain dancing..."Well that settles it" (Scott Sumner)
Updating prior beliefs
Inequality is way down the list: The 4% and the real problems
Mankiw wins the bet: The forces of evil easily triumph over Krugman and DeLong
Could be that lots of arm twisting and schmoozing was involved: Farewell to Ben Bernanke
Ramesh Ponnuru, the unit root debate and more: Short Notes
Is RGDP volatile, compared to optimal policy? Do monetary shocks matter? And what is a monetary shock?
Some Econlog posts from Scott Sumner:
A good basic post about NGDP http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/01/ngdp_isnt_the_e.html
For the Chinese, education is important: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/01/_over_at_themon.html
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/01/keynesian_confi.html
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/02/where_the_stres.html
Bitcoin is just a medium of exchange, right? (Nick Rowe)http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2014/01/one-good-thing-about-bitcoin.html
When investment values change: http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2014/01/coloured-sunspots-and-shells.html
How do we know when monetary policy makes things worse?http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2014/02/separating-real-from-nominal-shocks.html
Two rates of interest, for holding and lending money: http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2014/02/two-interest-rates-and-a-simple-question.html
(Lars Christensen) http://marketmonetarist.com/2014/02/04/the-colombian-central-bank-should-have-a-look-at-the-export-price-norm/
Not all EM central bankers suffer from fear of floating: http://marketmonetarist.com/2014/02/04/listen-to-my-new-hero-jose-dario-uribe/
Emerging markets need to stay committed to floating exchange rates: http://marketmonetarist.com/2014/01/31/four-graphs-em-central-bankers-should-study-lessons-from-two-reserve-banks-1997-98/
From an op-ed on UK's City AM: http://marketmonetarist.com/2014/01/30/the-sharply-rising-risk-of-emerging-market-policy-blunders/
Even Lars agrees with Krugman on occasion... http://marketmonetarist.com/2014/01/29/the-awkward-moment-when-george-selgin-realized-he-agree-with-paul-krugman/
China also matters: http://marketmonetarist.com/2014/01/28/the-em-sell-off-and-china-as-a-global-monetary-superpower/
Lars takes a closer look at emerging markets: http://marketmonetarist.com/2014/01/27/please-dont-fight-it-the-risk-of-em-policy-mistakes/
The Fed is not the only monetary superpower for emerging markets (David Beckworth): http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2014/01/when-monetary-superpowers-flex-emerging.html
Time to scrap forward guidance: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-feds-foward-guidance-is-not-trully.html
Good nautical analogy http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2014/01/forward-guidance-is-hard-so-is.html
Bernanke never tried Abenomics
http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-two-big-failures-of-bernanke-fed.html
David Glasner:
http://uneasymoney.com/2014/01/26/two-cheers-well-maybe-only-one-and-a-half-for-falsificationism/
A review of Kartik Athreya's book:
http://uneasymoney.com/2014/02/03/big-ideas-in-macroeconomics-a-review/
From Britmouse:
http://uneconomical.wordpress.com/2014/01/24/sticky-wages-and-living-standards/
http://uneconomical.wordpress.com/2014/01/29/productivity-shocker/
(Bill Woolsey) minimum wage affects employment patterns: Robert Murphy on the Minimum Wage
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