tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32697209735567639122024-03-18T20:28:11.391-07:00the intentional marketplacefree markets happen through coordination and inclusionBecky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.comBlogger1437125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-64932319859885412392024-02-29T18:22:00.000-08:002024-02-29T18:29:55.154-08:00Wrap Up for February 2024<p><a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/homeownership-is-down-more-than-you">Lack of home ownership access is worse than we thought.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/01/1228462675/violent-crime-is-dropping-across-the-country-so-why-do-americans-feel-less-safe">Even though many don't feel safe, violent crime is starting to drop.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/gauti-eggertsson-post-pandemic-inflation-surge-and-its-implications-monetary-policy">Gauti Eggertsson talks monetary policy and the post-pandemic inflation surge with David Beckworth.</a> <a href="https://www.econlib.org/beckworth-interviews-eggertsson-2/">Scott Sumner responds.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/economic-losses-for-our-allies-are">The U.S. needs for its allies to be stronger, not weaker.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-battery-swapping-china-rescue-us-revolution-2024-2">Will EV battery swapping become an option for the U.S.?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/iea-energy-scenarios">Hannah Ritchie on future global energy demand.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-age-of-the-longevity-economy/">Today's population growth is due to people living longer.</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/tariffs-are-coming">A looming global trade war will be fought with (more) tariffs.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-valuable-are-building-methods">Some reasons why innovation in building materials has been difficult.</a></p><p><a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/accidentally-testing-ngdp-level-targeting">There has been an "accidental flirtation" with NGDP targeting.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Supply_Chain_Disruption.pdf">"The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/91002941/healthcare-tech-innovation-bd-mini-draw-blood-test">Thankfully, this innovation in blood testing is real.</a></p><p><a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/climate-anomalies-and-societal-collapse">Climate change as a factor in societal collapse.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2024/02/07/microfactory-phx-plastic-recycling">I believe this kind of recycling has tremendous potential for our housing access problem.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/do-poor-countries-need-a-new-development">Perhaps industrialization shouldn't be discounted just yet.</a> Noah Smith also references a relevant and important paper, <a href="https://eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/multipliers.pdf">"Local Multipliers"</a> by Enrico Moretti.</p><p><a href="https://www.economicforces.xyz/p/why-does-the-state-have-a-monopoly">What makes a state monopoly of money printing so durable?</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1755278869983302014">Some are more likely to be swayed by misinformation than others.</a></p><p><a href="https://asteriskmag.com/issues/04/is-our-children-learning">At the very least, lessons could be targeted specifically to what students already know.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/americans-should-be-less-complacent">Everyone has been too complacent about Social Security.</a></p><p><a href="https://andolfatto.blogspot.com/2024/02/does-high-interest-policy-constitute.html">What if high-interest policy is a form of fiscal stimulus?</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2024/02/09/three-long-term-shifts-in-the-us-budget-picture/">A look at how government budgetary obligations are presently changing.</a> And, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-believes-u-debt-093000484.html">our current level of debt was nonetheless a predictable crisis.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/mark-koyama-how-world-became-rich-historical-origins-economic-growth">Mark Koyama talks with David Beckworth about historical origins for economic growth.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/is-arabia-the-new-america/">When the real America wrongly believes it is full, will new "Americas" rise to take its place?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-ukraine-war-is-ultimately-about">For Putin, Poland is even more important than Ukraine.</a></p><p><a href="https://news.yahoo.com/senate-becoming-house-150943354.html">The Senate has changed</a>.</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1756238118837969012">Even though Germany is vulnerable, it is hardly alone.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/12/how-biden-botched-border">"How Biden botched the border"</a></p><p><a href="https://arpitrage.substack.com/p/unlock-a-housing-boom-through-depreciation">This is an opportune moment to bring forward tax depreciation schedules (again) for multifamily housing.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/a-bunch-of-handy-charts-about-climate">Some chart visuals for climate change.</a></p><p>When our government <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/05/hospitals-medicare-lobbying-cuts">no longer has enough money for Medicare revenue requirements</a>, yet <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2024/02/13/1230991999/medicare-hospital-site-neutral-payment-cut">hospitals no longer have enough money to stay open without governmental help</a>, it's time to look for solutions beyond those that are strictly monetary.</p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/do-wages-cause-inflation/">How do wages affect inflation?</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1757426250556068061">Why is the work week shrinking?</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2024/02/15/provision-of-care-a-challenge-for-economics/">Not all aspects of vital services are captured by GDP.</a> Also, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.38.1.201">"Care Provision and the Boundaries of Production"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w32129">What might happen if a U.S. government default causes the loss of safe asset status?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/02/long-run-fiscal-outlook-in-united-states/">Some fiscal policy projections for the next three decades.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/17/1229867031/housing-shortage-zoning-reform-cities">More cities are starting to consider broader zoning for housing options.</a></p><p><a href="https://neurosciencenews.com/learning-personal-like-25618/">People learn more from those who they readily relate to.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/Brad_Setser/status/1758935790011244710">Ties between the U.S. and Europe remain closer than some realize.</a></p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-things-middle-class-won-150007805.html">Middle class expectations have been dealt a financial blow in recent years.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/approval-ratings-of-world-leaders-in-2024/">Which world leaders have the highest approval ratings?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-i-write-posts">Brian Potter explains how he prepares his posts for publication.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2024/02/20/three-snapshots-of-where-us-population-is-headed/">Without immigration, the U.S. population would soon decline.</a></p><p><a href="https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-work-in-the-trades/">What trade jobs are most in demand?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/book-review-power-and-progress">Noah Smith was disappointed in the main premise of <i>Power and Progress.</i></a></p><p><a href="https://capx.co/with-navalnys-death-putins-russia-enters-its-darkest-phase/">Navalny's death is Russia's dark turning point.</a></p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-plans-save-economy-flooding-060000007.html">China's trade advantages continue to be a problem for the West.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/restaurants-america-eating-out-crisis-your-fault-labor-shortage-tipping-2024-2">Diners would like restaurants to stay the same, but that's no longer possible.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.bydamo.la/p/kinda-nice">What is the difference between being nice and being kind?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/what-trump-should-have-said/">Don't say we weren't warned.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2024/eb_24-07">The NIMBYism of high skill areas also provides rationale for promoting economic development in lower skill areas.</a></p><p>Carola Binder's new book, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Shock-Values-Inflation-American-Democracy/dp/0226833097">Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy</a></i> , will be released on May 21, 2024.</p><p><a href="https://lithub.com/what-is-left-rebecca-solnit-on-the-perennial-divisions-of-the-american-left/">What is the American left really about?</a></p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumers-increasingly-pushing-back-against-235757139.html">At the very least, consumers have their own ways of dealing with inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econtalk.org/the-secrets-of-great-conversation-with-charles-duhigg/">Russ Roberts and Charles Duhigg on the art of conversation.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.promarket.org/2024/02/26/how-the-democratic-party-lost-less-educated-voters/">A closer look at how Democrats lost voters with relatively less education.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/alexei-navalny-is-a-warning-and-a">Alexei Navalny as both a warning and a beacon.</a></p><p>Perhaps Medicare and Medicaid plan to use <a href="https://twitter.com/asacarny/status/1757091338225410112">these new access fees</a> for their funding shortfalls! <a href="https://www.cms.gov/data-research/files-order/data-disclosures-and-data-use-agreements-duas/important-research-data-request-access-policy-changes-0">Here are their policy changes.</a> Nevertheless, some continue to dream of knowledge access possibilities in <a href="https://cip.org/supermodular">anti-rival forms.</a> For me the dream is still time arbitrage for local healthcare education and access, not to mention (widely shared) knowledge preservation.</p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/capital-flows-and-the-global-economy-welcoming-robin-brooks-to-brookings/">Robin Brooks is now working with Brookings.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.worksinprogress.news/p/britains-interwar-apartment-boom">"Britain's interwar apartment boom"</a></p><p><a href="https://acoup.blog/2024/02/23/fireside-friday-february-23-2024-on-the-military-failures-of-fascism/">Fascism has also had its share of military failures.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noemamag.com/how-ai-could-help-rebuild-the-middle-class/">How might AI help rebuild the middle classes?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nexteconomy.co/p/february-inflation">Services were a big contributor to the hot January CPI number.</a> Plus, why the variance between rent and home ownership is so important,</p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-1f052cc3-bb6f-4ced-80a6-cf4687235725.html">Some relative changes in prosperity around the country.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/how-to-recover-from-k-12-student">Suggestions for overcoming K-12 student learning losses.</a></p><p><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales">In 2022, 1 in 7 cars sold around the world were electric.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w32176">Bank balance sheets are no longer a prominent part of credit intermediation.</a></p><p><a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/senior-loneliness-vienna-microbrewery/">A senior home close to Vienna has a microbrewery where its residents can work.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/inflation-projections-by-country-in-2024/">Inflation projections by country for the coming year.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-38843648831500940862024-01-31T19:02:00.000-08:002024-01-31T19:10:23.240-08:00Wrap Up for January 2024<p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/us-property-taxes-by-state/">Many don't realize how high property tax burdens have actually been in Texas.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noemamag.com/what-if-money-expired/">People are still intrigued by the idea of a Gesellian economy.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/with-ngdp-everything-becomes-much-clearer/">When interest rates are the main Fed tool (rather than NGDP), the seemingly simple logic of a "soft landing" becomes more difficult.</a> <a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/why-such-low-unemployment/">Wage inflation also has not come down enough for a soft landing</a> to be realistic at this point. And, <a href="https://www.econlib.org/money-macro-who-is-the-goat/">Scott Sumner highlights some of "the best" money macro economists.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/02/mega-economy-themes-to-watch-in-24">What will be the main economic stories of 2024?</a> However, after the next 10 months, <a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-markets-d60b17e1-1d2d-43fa-bca5-d25f46ee782a.html">all bets are off.</a> </p><p><a href="https://arpitrage.substack.com/p/the-goods-services-rotation-theory">Arpit Gupta discusses sectoral factors which continue to affect post-pandemic inflation.</a> </p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2024/01/03/high-us-health-care-spending-higher-prices-or-higher-quantities/">For healthcare, the U.S. leads in both price and quantity rankings.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/when-and-why-does-congress-create-fiscal-commissions/">Some government created fiscal commissions have been more successful than others.</a> What would a new fiscal commission seek to achieve?</p><p><a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/on-yglesias-on-manufactured-homes">It's not clear which restrictions actually stand in the way of greater manufactured home construction.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.economicsuncoveredresearch.com/p/us-cpi-preview-december-2023">A closer look at some disinflationary trends.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/3/24018797/ocean-maps-ai-satellite-imagery-radar-fishing-vessels-offshore-energy-wind-oil">Recent developments in satellite imagery, make it possible to show the extent of human activity taking place at sea.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/04/economy/inflation-rise-europe-germany-france/index.html">Despite disinflationary gains, prices haven't stopped rising in Europe</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.econtalk.org/michael-easter-on-excess-moderation-and-the-scarcity-brain/">Michael Easter discusses his book <i>Scarcity Brain </i>with Russ Roberts.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/can-we-build-a-department-store-for">What might an inspiring 21st century department store look like?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/colby-smith-steven-kelly-and-gerard-dipippo-highlights-2023-and-looking-ahead-future">Some 2023 highlights and looking ahead, from Macro Musings.</a></p><p><a href="https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/figuring-out-why-2023-was-so-surprising">2023 certainly turned out different than some expected.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/JakeVigdor/status/1743710654664458341">Are people starting to lose interest in an economic education?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/thank-you-for-the-magic-bob-solow/">Robert Solow made a profound contribution to economic growth.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1743238493248037167">There's been a shift away from the culture of progress in the West.</a></p><p><a href="https://brinklindsey.substack.com/p/depopulation-and-decadence">Brink Lindsey highlights the problem of fertility collapse.</a></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/business/4398405-top-1-percent-lower-tax-rates-study/">High income levels tend to pay the lowest local and state level taxes.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/01/10/high-rent-bad-health-short-lifespan/71891093007/">Rising rents and evictions also impact lifespan and mortality rates.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/11/23984135/inequality-auten-splinter-piketty-saez-zucman-tax-data">How to think about inequality? It depends on one's research sources.</a> </p><p><a href="https://timharford.com/2024/01/what-makes-a-good-prophecy/">In order for prophecy to actually be worthwhile, it needs to spell out the future in concrete and specific terms, so that adaptation is feasible.</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/top-global-risks-in-2024/">A visual for "Top global risks in 2024".</a> <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/5-risks-global-economy-2024/">Brookings notes five risks.</a> <a href="https://goodauthority.org/news/why-globalization-is-now-in-the-crossfire/">Global commerce is also fragile.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.worksinprogress.news/p/the-asbestos-times">Asbestos actually had beneficial qualities. But the dangers were higher than anyone initially realized.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/does-consumption-led-growth-exist/">Is "consumption-led growth" really the best way to describe what an economy may need?</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/PIrelandEcon/status/1745869554708803694">Peter Ireland has a new paper on money growth and inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/11/americans-red-state-us-economy-axios-vibes">Republicans, rural residents, renters, women, and singles are the ones who don't feel particularly good about the economy.</a> And as Neil Irwin notes, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/13/food-prices-grocery-stores-us-economy">it's the higher price level that bothers people most.</a> <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/14/political-trust-leaders-government-america">Americans think their leaders don't care.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/11/hospital-debt-increase-people-with-insurance">In recent years, hospital debt obligations have increased for people with health insurance.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.growbyginkgo.com/2024/01/09/getting-under-the-skin/">There's potential for innovation in insulin production.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econtalk.org/can-a-nation-plunder-its-way-to-wealth-with-noah-smith/">"Did the West get rich from imperialism?"</a></p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/old-american-dream-died-realtor-100050605.html">It's already existing student debt obligations, not to mention child care costs, which make home ownership so difficult for young adults.</a></p><p><a href="https://freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2024/01/15/what-is-your-favourite-explanation-for-our-fall-in-growth/">The U.K. has struggled more recently than many nations.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/15/what-foreign-diplomats-say-about-u-s-politics-behind-closed-doors-00135326">Perceptions of the U.S. government, have taken a turn for the worse.</a></p><p><a href="https://eig.org/aging-population-impact/">Adam Ozimek highlights the challenges of an aging population.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/16/davos-banking-group-iif-sounds-the-alarm-on-record-global-debt.html">Davos notes that the debt problem is global this time.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-pandemic-inflation-episode-is-still-unwinding/">The relative price of goods also still remains above trend.</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2024/01/16/1224938442/what-would-a-second-trump-presidency-look-like-for-health-care">How would a second Trump presidency compare to the first, in terms of healthcare?</a></p><p><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2813927">Much about inequality in the U.S. really comes down to the hidden cost of healthcare insurance.</a></p><p><a href="https://jwmason.org/slackwire/thirteen-questions-about-money/">J.W. Mason explains "13 Ways of Looking at Money".</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/is-us-industrial-policy-learning">U.S. industrial policy still leaves a lot to be desired.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2024/01/18/aging-and-long-term-care-an-international-view/">U.S. citizens remain too reliant on (unpaid) family members for long term care of the elderly.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/what-happened-to-the-us-machine-tool">"Between 1982 and 1987, half of US machine tool firms closed their doors."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w32040">Which school investments increase local property values? It depends.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-22301d7f-64af-4dca-b401-1266a26d149e.html">The tightening mechanism worked better via corporate channels than some may have expected.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1748059165954609169">Despite the negative supply shocks, there have been positive ones as well.</a></p><p><a href="https://americasquarterly.org/article/quiet-quitting-the-war-on-drugs/">"Quiet Quitting the War on Drugs"</a></p><p><a href="https://benjaminschneider.substack.com/p/the-real-problem-with-california">Even Yimbys aren't always on board with new cities that are a fresh start, rather than adaptations for already existing ones.</a> <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-california-forever-project-is">Noah Smith has a much more positive take.</a> </p><p><a href="https://mwi.westpoint.edu/gazas-underground-hamass-entire-politico-military-strategy-rests-on-its-tunnels/">A different kind of politico-military strategy.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/just-when-you-thought-things-couldnt-get-any-worse/">"The real problem is the debt time bomb."</a> It still doesn't seem like anyone is serious about dealing with this. I believe that structural solutions beyond money are necessary to turn things around. But people have yet to consider such a route, let alone act on it.</p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-weird-and-depressing-debate-over-as-ad/">How did the measurement of aggregate demand become so confusing?</a></p><p>I'd note that <a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/time-banks-valuable-currency-aging-communities/">time banks</a> could at least function as a simple component of time arbitrage. </p><p><a href="https://www.promarket.org/2024/01/25/the-economic-consequences-of-political-pressure-on-the-federal-reserve/">Political pressure has been a problem for inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org//wp/more/2024-002">Some structural accounting for markups now occurring in services rather than goods.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-6fab526f-1cb8-45b2-aa17-b523f606fb8b.html">The soft landing? Or perhaps no landing at all.</a></p><p><a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/december-2023-new-home-sales-and">Kevin Erdmann is in favour of a 5 percent NGDP growth trend.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/jonathon-hazell-phillips-curves-wage-rigidity-and-how-measure-r-star">Jonathon Hazell on Phillips Curves, Wage Rigidity, and How to Measure R-Star"</a> Plus, <a href="https://www.econlib.org/poorly-defined-concepts-in-macroeconomics/">Scott Sumner responds.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-most-diverse-states-in-the-us-by-race/">Which states are the most racially diverse?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/what-about-gradualism/">Aggregate demand or NGDP isn't important in the long run, but it's the most important variable in the short run.</a> And anyone who takes it seriously has a useful context for gradualism as well.</p><p><a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/more-on-the-gdp-trend-and-housing">"Real residential investment is half of what it commonly was in the past, relative to other real production."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nexteconomy.co/p/is-the-honeymoon-over">Is disinflation over?</a></p><p><a href="https://arpitrage.substack.com/p/why-fintech-failed">"the cost of mortgage origination has basically never been higher."</a> FinTech hasn't really delivered the market improvements that seemed possible.</p><p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/all-public-health-is-local">Public health is in need of a new approach.</a></p><p><a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/future-affordable-housing-3d-printed-recyclable/">There are positive global implications for local 3D printing with recycled materials, for construction.</a> "The goal of this research is to create a system for constructing homes that alleviates strains on the supply chain and addresses labor shortages, while providing economical and sustainable housing."</p><p><a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/why-schools-are-welcoming-intergenerational-tutoring/">A positive story in renewed community connections.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/interview-sarah-c-paine">Some thoughtful explanations for recent world conflicts.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-markets-3b20db02-0963-4a42-898c-ff7e5d0ba524.html">Whatever happened to the retail "apocalypse"?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/a-cycle-of-misery-the-business-of">It's been quite a struggle for aircraft manufacturers.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-53559935922920974142023-12-30T17:44:00.000-08:002023-12-30T17:55:08.209-08:00Wrap Up for December 2023<p><a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/charles-evans-on-the-feds-2024-policy-review/">Until the Fed adopts a level target, mistakes such as the Great Recession and the more recent excessive inflationary level gain, are likely.</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/11/30/1215460460/housing-seniors-affordable-harvard-report-baby-boomers">"Many boomers will face tough choices as they age."</a> Indeed, one of the more difficult aspects of the almost 10 percent level rise <i>just in the last 4 years.</i></p><p><a href="https://fivebooks.com/best-books/business-books-2023-andrew-hill/">There were interesting business books this year.</a> <i>Material World</i> in particular had positive reviews.</p><p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/the-great-holiday-shopping-mystery">Why the robust holiday shopping season that defied economic anxieties?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/archive/2023/12/how-to-waste-time/676187/">Thinking about the use of one's time when it's not strictly in productivity terms.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/stop-saying-there-is-no-decoupling">How real is the decoupling between the U.S. and China?</a></p><p><a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/is-societal-collapse-just-a-random">Does it make sense to think of societal collapse as bad luck?</a> Over the years I've emphasized how government redistribution to support ongoing knowledge use in society, is particularly fragile. Here, much more than luck is needed!</p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/how-important-are-the-issues/">Sometimes when it comes to politics, the issues aren't as important as they seem.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/back-to-the-future-its-the-economy-stupid/">Young voters aren't happy about their 2024 voting options, yet they <i>are</i> concerned regarding economic issues.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/97-trillion-of-global-debt-in-2023/">At $33.2 trillion, the U.S. holds more than one-third of the world's government debt.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/29/detroit-electric-roadway">The first roadway in the U.S. which will charge EVs.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/transition-mineral-demand-part-two">There are medium-term challenges now faced by the ongoing energy transition.</a></p><p><a href="https://timharford.com/2023/12/what-the-data-shows-about-the-uks-public-services-doom-loop/">Public services in the UK are being described as a "doom loop".</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/karl-smith-on-monetary-policy-puzzles/">When is a monetary "puzzle" not actually a puzzle?</a> Also, <a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/march-of-2025/">for once a soft landing is possible.</a></p><p><a href="https://freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2023/12/11/please-read-ed-conways-material-world-it-is-really-good/">Is AI really on a path that will improve our financial realities?</a> Plus, <a href="http://www.softmachines.org/wordpress/">what might be expected regarding productivity potential in the near future?</a> </p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/12/11/lessons-from-fighting-100-inflations-since-the-1970s/">Central bankers have the tendency to celebrate too soon, when it comes to addressing inflationary episodes.</a></p><p>Speaking of premature celebrations, <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/4354004-this-is-bigger-than-covid-why-are-so-many-americans-dying-early/">Why did public health officials archive the "excess deaths" webpage?</a></p><p><a href="https://unherd.com/2023/12/xi-jinping-is-not-mao-reborn/">Has China's decline been exaggerated?</a></p><p><a href="https://coppolacomment.substack.com/p/the-past-present-and-future-of-uk">Francis Coppola reflects on current economic circumstance in the UK.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tech-jobs-are-finally-spreading-out-spurred-by-private-investment-and-federal-initiatives/">Digital tech activity is finally spreading out in the U.S.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31949">A closer look at real interest rates in recent decades.</a></p><p><a href="https://timharford.com/2023/12/have-yourself-an-atelic-little-christmas/">Christmas as an experiential journey, rather than an explicit goal.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/global-harvest-2023">Food supply adaptation might be the biggest challenge due to climate change.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/why-not-fiscal-policy/">One advantage for monetary policy over fiscal, is that monetary stimulus doesn't increase public debt.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/12/18/is-healthcare-spending-leveling-out-at-last/">What might we expect of healthcare spending in the near future?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/15/homelessness-increase-rent-crisis-2023">Homelessness in the U.S. is now at a record level.</a> And despite other factors, the cost of today's housing is the main cause. However, <a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/the-housing-shortage-is-larger-than">moral expectations also get in the way of housing abundance.</a></p><p><a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/547505/nurses-first-doctors-distant-second-healthcare-provider-ratings.aspx">It turns out Americans are most satisfied with the care provided by their nurses.</a></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4362948-americans-abandoning-neighborhoods-due-to-rising-flood-risk-study-finds/">Rising flood risk results in abandoned neighborhoods.</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/18/1218731997/people-are-leaving-some-neighborhoods-because-of-floods-a-new-study-finds">Even as people continue moving to flood prone areas, they're becoming more aware of the risks involved.</a></p><p><a href="https://theweek.com/politics/how-israel-hamas-conflict-threatens-suez-canal">Until now, the Suez Canal had actually been experiencing a "renaissance".</a></p><p>It shouldn't be necessary, to just say <a href="https://www.econlib.org/delete-fiscal-policy-from-macro/">"delete fiscal"</a> from the macro policy equation. Especially since the governmental action of advanced economies does not define general equilibrium circumstance, regardless of policy decisions. Why isn't it obvious by now, how human activity in aggregate creates the macro outcomes that matter? When governments insist on fiscal dominance, it shows their reluctance to take seriously their own citizens. </p><p><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/why-prices-are-probably-never-going-back-down-8418157">While price increases finally slowed, their hoped for reversal never materialized as so many had hoped.</a> The CPI has increased 19% since February 2020.</p><p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/walking-the-federal-reserves-policy">The Fed walks a narrow tightrope.</a> Nevertheless, <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-did-the-us-achieve-a-soft-landing">Some theories for the Fed's "soft landing".</a></p><p><a href="https://timharford.com/2023/12/why-the-breakdown-of-the-9-5-job-is-making-us-lonelier/">There is real value in synchronized time.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-the-solow-model-can-teach-us">Simple explanations for the Solow model.</a> Despite the value of his exogenous growth model, total factor productivity remains a mystery. Nevertheless, for me it helps to think of TFP as what physical capital accomplishes alongside human capital. Plus, for the wealth created in a single year, there are upstream wealth claims on human capital which impact the output potential of knowledge economies. What if some <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1738989977042669976">central bankers might be afraid to adhere to appropriate nominal limits</a> when knowledge based output is purposely withheld?</p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/tyler-cowen-greatest-economist-all-time-and-other-macro-awards">Tyler Cowen discusses great economists with David Beckworth.</a> <a href="https://www.econlib.org/tyler-cowen-on-recent-fed-policy/">Scott Sumner responds.</a></p><p><a href="https://theovershoot.co/p/the-overshoots-2023-year-in-review">Matthew Klein's year in review.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/03/domestic-migration-trends-shifted.html">Shifting patterns for domestic migration.</a> Migration from <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/blue-states-dont-build">blue states to red states also impacts political outcomes.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-67845056">At the very least, the NATO alliance has renewed purpose.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-85615357224312565552023-11-29T19:40:00.000-08:002023-11-29T19:48:29.309-08:00Wrap Up for November 2023<p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/27/insurance-rates-climate-change-extreme-weather">Extreme weather continues to affect insurance rates.</a></p><p><a href="https://theprogressnetwork.org/americans-deserve-a-better-political-system/">American civil society: it's time for a reboot.</a></p><p><a href="https://jakeseliger.com/2023/10/31/puzzles-about-oncology-and-clinical-trials/">Why isn't the valuable knowledge from clinical trials more widely shared?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about">What is most important for quality product that is <i>reasonably</i> priced?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/chinas-best-province/">In a sense, Taiwan could be considered China's best province.</a></p><p><a href="https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-receive-the-most-aid-from-the-us/">U.S. foreign aid has changed considerably.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-ireland-got-so-rich">Ireland has become an unexpected success story.</a></p><p><a href="https://jpkoning.blogspot.com/2023/11/how-would-cash-only-central-bank.html">How important is cash as a mechanism for the hot potato effect?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.economicstrategygroup.org/publication/building-a-more-resilient-us-economy/">Strategies for a more resilient U.S. economy.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/the-most-spoken-language-in-every-u-s-state-besides-english-and-spanish/">There's a wide range of spoken languages in the U.S. besides English and Spanish.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/11/10/mario-draghi-on-a-common-fiscal-policy-for-the-eurozone/">How unified does the EU really need to be?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/if-markets-are-right-about-long-real-rates-public-debt-ratios-will">Should long real rates remain as they are now, it will take time to achieve debt stabilization.</a> </p><p><a href="https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/why-might-this-time-be-different?">Claudia explains how there can be exceptions to her Sahm rule.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/singapore-urbanism?">Singapore has some unique characteristics.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/HannoLustig/status/1721598941203181916">How useful is the gap between r and g for fiscal capacity?</a></p><p><a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/zero-sum-thinking-and-political-divides">Zero sum thinking explains some of the puzzling aspects of policy views.</a></p><p><a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/what-kind-of-good-is-housing">"What kind of good is housing?"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.economicforces.xyz/p/central-banks-and-fiscal-policy">The primary role for central banks is management for the supply and demand of liquidity.</a> However, it can be dangerous when central banks are pressured to facilitate fiscal dominance.</p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/top-companies-for-employee-retention-in-the-u-s-and-uk/">I was surprised which companies had the best employee retention.</a> Especially considering the years my Dad worked for Phillips.</p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-e703156d-9a38-438e-90d7-fe5a0053ef94.html">The central banks which moved quicker, got better results.</a></p><p><a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/economics-early-modern/">"Economics in Early Modern Philosophy"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/disquiet-in-the-worlds-middle-class/">Middle class expectations have changed in complex ways.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/welding-and-the-automation-frontier">Welding continues to adapt to the automation frontier.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/things-that-didnt-cause-the-great-depression/">What <i>caused</i> the Great Depression has never been satisfactorily explained.</a></p><p><a href="https://fivebooks.com/best-books/economic-nationalism-fredrik-erixon/">Five books on economic nationalism.</a></p><p><a href="https://projects.apnews.com/features/2023/missing-students-unapproved-schools/index.html?">Diplomas that don't require state approval.</a> It almost feels as though our educational system is casting about in the wilderness. Eventually, we can only hope it might finally achieve a greater purpose that aligns with human aspiration and personal meaning.</p><p><a href="https://brinklindsey.substack.com/p/productivity-growth-the-good-the">Brink Lindsay takes a closer look at what productivity represents.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-did-the-budget-deficit-grow-so-much-in-fy-2023-and-what-does-this-imply-about-the-future-debt-trajectory/">Brookings on the recent increase in the budget deficit.</a></p><p><a href="https://braddelong.substack.com/p/how-strong-are-e-economys-equilibrium">Monetary and fiscal policy as equilibrium restoring forces.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hun1ZfZBnHA&ab_channel=PrincetonBendheimCenterforFinance">Alan Blinder describes hard and soft landings (youtube)</a></p><p><a href="https://www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-invention-how-to-be-a-public">Becoming a public historian has its challenges and responsibilities.</a></p><p><a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/unfortunately-production-efficiency">Kevin Erdmann doubts the possibility of production efficiencies in housing.</a></p><p><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy">A look at data on life expectancy worldwide.</a></p><p>In the past few years, I've come to understand (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-households-need-extra-11400-these-states-its-even-higher/">along with millions of others</a>) why disinflation alone isn't enough to remain positive about economic outcomes.</p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-46226211541298508572023-10-31T14:11:00.000-07:002023-10-31T14:22:37.025-07:00Wrap Up for October 2023<p><a href="https://fivebooks.com/best-books/david-j-lynch-on-economic-history/">Some noteworthy books on economic history.</a></p><p>Regulations often result in prohibitive costs, in part because they tend to <a href="https://www.econlib.org/regulation-favors-the-elites/">benefit the elites.</a></p><p>There is still <a href="https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-is-the-role-of-storytelling-in-economics">a role for storytelling in economics.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.economicforces.xyz/p/and-the-2023-economics-nobel-goes">Brian Albrecht highlights some of Claudia Golden's work which won her this year's economics Nobel.</a> More on Claudia Golden <a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/10/09/claudia-goldin-a-nobel-for-the-study-of-womens-labor-market-outcomes/">from Timothy Taylor.</a> <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2023/press-release/">Here's the press release from the Nobel Committee.</a> Noah Smith <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/a-nobel-for-the-story-of-women-in">also provides numerous references.</a></p><p><a href="https://asteriskmag.com/issues/04/between-the-lines-a-history-of-the-most-important-concept-in-global-poverty">Is the poverty line an arbitrary measure that is actually holding us back?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/starter-cars-go-the-way-of-starter">"Why are we losing the bottom rung of the ladder in housing and cars alike?"</a></p><p><a href="https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-which-countries-have-the-highest-investment-risk/">A visual of different global investment risks.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/10/10/evidence-on-declining-intergenerational-mobility-in-the-united-states/">Intergenerational mobility continues to decline.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2023/29/">The pandemic didn't notably change our present slow growth trajectory.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/10/12/the-case-for-housing-first/">Which has proven more effective for homelessness: "treatment first", or "housing first"?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/10/06/why-i-built-zuzalu/">Vitalik Buterin's recent example of intentional community.</a> Previously I've written about domestic summits, as a potential sorting mechanism for start ups in common interest communities. In particular, such groups could more fully integrate personal time commitments as economic values in daily life.</p><p><a href="https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/the-shapes-of-cycles">Normally, monetary cycles tend to have a "longhorn" shape.</a></p><p><a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-245-gaza-beyond-de-development">How did the population of Gaza end up in such dire circumstance, in the first place?</a></p><p><a href="https://fivebooks.com/best-books/citizen-assemblies-hugh-pope/">The growing popularity of citizens' assemblies.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econtalk.org/alexandra-hudson-on-the-soul-of-civility/">"Alexandra Hudson on the Soul of Civility."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/richard-clarida-on-what-went-wrong/">Tactical errors were made. But strategic errors were also made.</a> There is still insufficient symmetry.</p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-cd9acf4c-1a95-43b6-9ca7-baefe2595c7d.html">Debt service will likely reshape fiscal politics.</a> And <a href="https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1714710912462966833">more on the current $2 trillion deficit.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/october-2023-update-to-tiger-the-global-recovery-falters-as-major-growth-engines-decelerate/">An update for global recovery.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.bensouthwood.co.uk/p/when-roads-are-bad">Roads have been quite beneficial, but they still have costs.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/10/19/globalizing-to-protect-national-security-the-poor-and-the-environment/">The WTO takes on arguments against globalization (Timothy Taylor).</a></p><p><a href="https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/the-unusual-recession-and-recovery">Some illustrations for what has been an unusual recession and recovery.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/markets-and-zoning/">A needed reminder that free markets are also conducive to housing density.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/despite-disruptions-us-china-trade-likely-grow">Will trade continue to grow between the U.S. and China?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/demographics-are-not-japans-problem/">Aging populations don't necessarily have to be an economic problem.</a> Likewise, <a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/economic-growth-prospects-face-population-ageing">"Demography is not destiny"</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-1b8258bb-348a-489f-a637-576db8b6e183.html">This time around, the bond vigilantes seem to be more relevant.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23862090/subjective-wellbeing-wealth-philanthropy-gdp-happiness-givewell">Happiness is a subjective - yet important - economic factor.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/america-needs-a-bigger-better-bureaucracy">There's a difference between the concept of "bureaucracy" and what a civil service actually consists of.</a></p><p><a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/10/what-is-it-we-do-and-do-not-know-about-macroeconomics.html">Confusion about real estate "bubbles" is one aspect of what we don't really know about macroeconomics.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/salary-increases-raises-2024-jobs-negotiate-inflation-employees-wage-growth-2023-10">Can workers still expect above average wage increases in 2024?</a></p><p><a href="https://aeon.co/essays/should-academic-disciplines-have-both-a-purpose-and-a-finish-date">How might the use of knowledge change, if it is envisioned as a journey rather than an end?</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/10/27/comparing-eu-to-us-output-per-hour/">Comparing output per hour for the European Union versus the U.S.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/do-state-takeovers-of-school-districts-work/">Houston public school administration was recently taken over by the state. </a> This seems problematic to me on several levels. For one, consider the degree of local taxation without representation that's involved. Texas has high property tax requirements, much of which is slated for public education.</p><p><a href="https://listeningtothesirens.substack.com/p/the-dilemma-of-the-west">"How do you respond to the intolerant when you believe tolerance is a virtue?"</a></p><p><a href="https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/using-consistent-monetary-and-inflation">A visualization for monetary outcomes in the U.S. and the EU.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-65629979518841376602023-09-30T17:55:00.000-07:002023-09-30T18:02:59.929-07:00Wrap Up for September 2023<p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/09/01/learning-losses-during-the-pandemic-reviewing-the-evidence/">Public schools haven't addressed learning losses that resulted from the pandemic.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/buying-vs-renting-house-in-america/">A visual for the current difference between cost to rent versus cost to buy a home.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-confusing-china-debate/">Much of the debate about China's economic potential is misleading.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2023/august/falling-college-wage-premiums-by-race-and-ethnicity/">The college wage premium is not as pronounced as before.</a></p><p><a href="https://overcast.fm/+4_lRuAGNE">Odd Lots with Barry Eichengreen on the "New Era of High Public Debt"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/is-it-time-for-the-revenge-of-the">Will AI become an equalizer for human capital potential?</a></p><p><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2808890">Vertical relationships between primary care physicians and health systems are resulting in higher costs.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chinas-economy-slowing-down-red-flags/">A visual of China's slowing economy.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-24f88149-607a-4bb4-a791-ba35d4a02e3e.html">Much of the inflation that remains is due to healthcare.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/chinas-slowdown-and-the-incentives">Does China have economic incentives for war?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/a-comment-on-jorda-singh-and-taylor/">Scott Sumner highlights</a> a <a href="https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2023/september/does-monetary-policy-have-long-run-effects/">recent paper from the San Francisco Fed.</a></p><p><a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/06/the-harried-leisure-class.html">Time management has changed as the monetary value of time has evolved.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/public-trust-federal-reserve/">Confidence in the current Federal Reserve chairman has reached a low ebb.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/dandolfa/status/1700185590812258671">Inflation has come down. Yet the cost of living remains inflated. Who is right?</a></p><p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ecaf.12591">Many nations have a poor perception of capitalism as concept.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-real-problem-is-nominal-wages/">Should a period of high inflation also becomes associated with a higher wage level, it's a kind of inflation which cannot be defined as "transitory". Which also holds true for the recent inflationary period</a>.</p><p><a href="http://www.enlightenmenteconomics.com/blog/index.php/2023/09/middling-models-in-the-big-real-world/">"economics is too silent on big issues"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econtalk.org/anupam-bapu-jena-on-random-acts-of-medicine/">Anupam Bapu Jena discusses his book <i>Random Acts of Medicine</i> with Russ Roberts.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/09/11/1198534328/medical-debt-housing-security-homelessness">The link between medical debt and homelessness.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-next-phase-of-globalization-is">Noah Smith is optimistic about the next phase of globalization.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/ryanburge/status/1698701353785209220">Religious attendance used to be associated with interpersonal trust.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/09/12/the-utilities-that-will-need-to-carry-out-electrification-governance-issues/">Who has incentive to take on significant extension of new transmission lines?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/emergent-tokyo/">Tokyo has turned out to be one of the most affordable yet desirable places to live.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/joe-gagnon-inflation-progress-and-path-ahead-breaking-down-jerome-powells-jackson">"Joe Gagnon on Inflation Progress and the Path Ahead".</a></p><p><a href="https://www.tbsnews.net/world/how-global-currencies-end-699546">The U.S. is fortunate indeed to hold a global currency, <i>if it can keep it.</i></a></p><p><a href="https://www.northerntrust.com/united-states/insights-research/2023/weekly-economic-commentary/measuring-the-cost-of-healthcare">Measuring healthcare has become too difficult to manage the inflation it causes.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/09/14/the-remarkable-steadiness-of-us-economic-growth/">Economic growth in the U.S. has remained fairly close to trend for the last 150 years.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1702442431851958633">Large central bank balances are increasingly being questioned.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-so-many-americans-are-unhappy-about-the-economy/">Continuing inflation could also have political effects.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/with-commuting-down-cities-must-rethink-their-transportation-networks/">"Commutes are down, but people are finding other reasons to leave the house."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-challenge-facing-yimbys/">What if recent YIMBY deregulation hasn't really been all that effective in California?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/an-age-of-austerity-is-probably-on">Once borrowing becomes more expensive, the likelihood of austerity increases.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/can-supply-and-demand-explain-inflation/">In what way does supply and demand explain inflation?</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/JHWeissmann/status/1703814617435079155">The parallel crisis of nursing homes and child care.</a></p><p><a href="https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/victor-fuchs-pioneer-health-care-economics-has-died">Victor Fuchs also believed healthcare costs were largely responsible, for the ever growing imbalance between our nation's GDP and fiscal trajectory .</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/social-security-todays-financing-challenge-is-at-least-double-what-it-was-in-1983/">How does today's Social Security funding challenge compare to the one in 1983?</a> As the deadline for reduced SS approaches, I've wondered whether recent retirees are moving forward in time important spending decisions - the kind which otherwise tend to be spread out over decades. The (likely) future shortfall has certainly affected my recent spending decisions. As Baby Boomers continue retiring, perhaps a growing awareness of this problem is reflected in today's stronger than expected consumer activity.</p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/robert-mccauley-bond-market-crises-and-international-lender-last-resort">Robert McCauley discusses bond market crisis with David Beckworth.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.promarket.org/2023/09/21/we-need-better-research-on-the-relationship-between-market-power-and-productivity-in-the-hospital-industry/">Are hospitals with substantial market power more productive?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/economics-is-really-hard/">Price gouging is a good example why economics is so difficult to understand.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/charting-the-depths-the-world-of-subsea-cables/">A visual of subsea cables.</a></p><p><a href="https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/its-what-you-thought-you-knew-but">From Claudia Sahm: GDP revisions are a reminder not to rely too much on any one data point.</a></p><p>Claudia Sahm also recently noted that Covid could have caused poor consumer sentiment. <a href="https://www.econlib.org/why-so-sad/">Scott Sumner suggests political polarization is responsible.</a> While both have valid arguments, I'm partial to higher costs in housing and transportation which have permanently reduced lifestyle options for millions. This, in spite of successful global efforts to bring down aggregate inflation. </p><p>Chances are, loneliness is a <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/09/it-is-the-poor-who-are-lonely-on-average.html">greater problem for lower income groups</a> than was once the case, because money is now more of a necessity just to partake in a wide range of social activities. For me this is yet another reason to implement time arbitrage as a component/measure of economic activity. Over the years, I've also advocated for time arbitrage in local education, in part as a way for students to regain much needed independence in their youth. It's time to reduce the battles of parental control versus teacher/administrator control over student educational decisions, instead how about letting students assume active roles in these processes? After all - not surprisingly - <a href="https://www.petergray.org/_files/ugd/b4b4f9_f2cb98d004af4ebf9644c8daa30b040e.pdf">lack of independence negatively impacts childrens' well being.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1706383798210855283">David Beckworth highlights a speech by Isabel Schnabel.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/09/26/us-capital-is-depreciating-faster/">"the life expectancy of capital investment has been declining."</a></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/4220684-looking-for-an-immigration-bill-that-can-pass-its-health-care/">Healthcare is one aspect of immigration which could find some bipartisan agreement.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/S_Stantcheva/status/1703765533571616809">Stefanie Stantcheva explains how zero sum thinking impacts polarization.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/12/12/u-s-children-more-likely-than-children-in-other-countries-to-live-with-just-one-parent/">There are more single-parent households in the U.S. than anywhere else.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/thomas-hoenig-public-debt-sustainability-and-current-state-us-banking-system">Thomas Hoenig discusses public debt sustainability and the current state of banking.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/macroeconomics-at-100/">100 years of macroeconomics: Perhaps critiques are better than models.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-71d7be62-053d-4b2a-ab60-0c898bfbc0a3.html">Rising real rates have yet to become prominent in mainstream news.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-traditional-auto-industry-is">Realistically, it's their last chance to strike in a quickly changing environment for auto manufacturing.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/09/29/the-upsurge-of-new-us-firms-the-detailed-story/">Documenting the recent upsurge of new firm formation in the U.S.</a></p><p><a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/09/the-need-for-hospital-price-transparency.html">Tyler Cowen notes the need for price transparency in hospitals.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-66492111845050625412023-08-31T13:08:00.001-07:002023-08-31T13:15:55.685-07:00Wrap Up for August 2023<p><a href="https://www.econtalk.org/daron-acemoglu-on-innovation-and-shared-prosperity/">Daron Acemoglu discusses <i>Power and Progress</i> with Russ Roberts.</a></p><p><a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/california-historic-floods-farms-aquifer-recharge/">California farmers are thinking differently re harnessing flood waters for aquifer management.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/why-level-targeting/">What makes level targeting better than growth rate targeting?</a></p><p><a href="https://news.lettersofnote.com/p/is-nature-a-gigantic-cat-0bf">Part of the inspiration for Nikola Tesla's lifelong work with electricity, came from his pet cat.</a></p><p><a href="https://fivebooks.com/best-books/fiscal-policy-sergio-de-ferra/">Recommendations for five books on fiscal policy.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/08/02/1191446579/doctors-have-their-own-diagnosis-moral-distress-from-an-inhumane-health-system">Doctors are dealing with moral distress.</a></p><p><a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/scholarship-on-the-mortgage-moral">What happened to small dollar mortgages?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/unemployed-workers-vs-job-openings-by-us-state/">Which states have the most job openings for workers?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/avoiding-scylla-and-charybdis/">Brink Lindsey argues for economic independence.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-actual-phillips-curve/">The actual Phillips curve relationship was between <i>wage inflation</i> and unemployment, not price inflation and unemployment.</a></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4138215-fitchs-downgrade-wasnt-a-mistake-it-was-long-overdue/">Chances are the Fitch downgrade was overdue.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/ricardo-reis-macroeconomics-financial-crises-and-recent-inflation-surge">For central bankers, the low R star view of the world prevailed for too long.</a></p><p>In recent years, <a href="https://eig.org/high-earners-migration/">a flight of taxable income from large urban areas.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/labgenius-antibody-factory-machine-learning/">AI is proving effective for antibody treatments.</a></p><p><a href="https://coppolacomment.substack.com/p/this-is-no-way-to-run-a-country">The real risk identified by Fitch, stems from politics.</a> And <a href="https://twitter.com/greg_ip/status/1689292023713468417">Greg Ip explains why he thinks the downgrade shouldn't be ignored.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/how-do-barter-economies-avoid-inflation/">Once you add money to a barter economy, inflation is possible.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/08/13/1187620367/power-grid-enhancing-technologies-climate-change">There are ways to make better use of the electrical grid we already have.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/why-does-demand-affect-prices/">Unemployment is associated with inflation but it is not a causal factor.</a></p><p><a href="https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/why-slave-owners-never-willingly">Why were slaves treated more harshly in richer societies?</a></p><p><a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-whither-china-part-ii-posen">China: "Authoritarian impasse" or "structural dead end"?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/08/15/1193754380/why-doctors-pay-millions-in-fees-that-could-be-spent-on-care">For healthcare, electronic payments turned out to be a ruse.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1691572528236388768">How strong is lock-in from low rate mortgages, really?</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/ProfTDee/status/1689867204806971392">Chronic absenteeism in U.S. public schools has nearly doubled recently.</a></p><p><a href="https://coppolacomment.substack.com/p/the-money-multiplier-myth-refuses">Banks no longer expand lending in response to base money increases.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/enc/grossoutput.html">When gross output is taken into consideration, consumption assumes a more rational one third approximate for total economic activity.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/how-serious-chinas-economic-slowdown">What if the recent assessment regarding China's slowdown is wrong?</a></p><p><a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-is-the-natural-rate-of-interest">Bill McBride notes the evidence for a rising natural rate of interest.</a></p><p><a href="https://fivebooks.com/best-books/world-economy-martin-wolf/">It's Martin Wolf's musings in the introduction that make this five books recommendation worthwhile.</a></p><p><a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/08/the-evolution-of-short-run-r-after-the-pandemic/">Liberty Street Economics looks at possibilities for the natural rate of interest in the near future.</a></p><p><a href="https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/liquidity-liquidity-everywhere-not-a-drop-to-use-why-flooding-banks-with-central-bank-reserves-may-not-expand-liquidity/">How useful is central bank balance sheet expansion, really?</a></p><p><a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/note-on-monetary-policy-and-jackson">Some musings from Kevin Erdmann on Jackson Hole.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31577">"Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-markets-d849f4ed-2f22-414c-a79c-eb6ec9a1b106.html">Fixed rate mortgages have created quite a conundrum for U.S. central bankers.</a> Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/26/if-you-think-the-uks-high-inflation-cycle-has-run-its-course-think-again">inflation in the U.K. still has its own problems.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/avoid-trendy-economics/">Some recent economic trends are unfortunate.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/jeannasmialek/status/1695821104495944063">Jeanna Smialek sums up the latest Jackson Hole meeting.</a> Here's the Arslanalp/Eichengreen report on <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9749/JH_Paper_Eichengreen.pdf">higher public debt.</a> Axios <a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-a7f2a587-929c-44e6-9803-20bbc97782a8.html">touches on their paper</a> and Timothy Taylor <a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/08/31/for-the-us-and-global-economy-what-pathways-to-reduce-government-debt/">highlights it alongside other examples.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-coping-ourselves-to">The stress of coping <i>too </i>much.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econtalk.org/vinay-prasad-on-cancer-screening/">A thought provoking discussion on cancer screening.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic-health-care-teachers-police">There are growing labour shortages in what are vital disciplines.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/jeannasmialek/status/1696510997198975474">How can home prices still be going up?</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/TimothyTTaylor/status/1696565514066432088">There's an upsurge in business formation.</a></p><p>Christine Lagarde at Jackson Hole: <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230825~77711105fe.en.html">"Policymaking in an age of shifts and breaks"</a></p><p>From the Richmond Fed: <a href="https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2023/eb_23-29">"The Pandemic's Effects on Children's Education"</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-73703732138147915082023-08-06T18:41:00.000-07:002023-08-06T18:41:01.486-07:00"Medium Term" Concerns are Becoming Short Term Realities<p>Fitch recently downgraded the United States' long term ratings to AA+, but why? For many economists and policy makers, <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023">their recent report</a> is both confusing and seemingly, untimely. Others however, such as <a href="https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2023/08/fitch-is-right.html">John Cochrane</a> and Olivier Blanchard, argued that the downgrade makes sense, and I agree. </p><p>Indeed, there are good reasons for immediate concern. Among those but certainly not limited to, are higher interest rates on government debt, the rising debt stock, and rising healthcare costs. Unfortunately, in the 12+ years I've paid close attention to such matters online, these fiscal issues have often been scarcely noticed, other than occasional warnings to take heed and "do something". </p><p>Consequently, the general lack of seriousness about the matter, made the the medium term seem as though something which would never arrive. In short, there's a broad based unwillingness to face fiscal burdens head on, which has left us with a government no longer fully committed to its debts. Alas, it is futile to insist "This is about Republicans" because - after all - Republican representation is part and parcel of our institutional makeup. Perhaps that explains why <a href="https://twitter.com/ojblanchard1/status/1687004406707785729">Olivier Blanchard</a> declared our budgetary process is no longer reliable. </p><p>There's little denying as well, how the world has changed after recent domestic market inflation which is far trickier to eradicate than tradable sector inflation. In his support of the Fitch decision, <a href="https://twitter.com/ModeledBehavior/status/1687092500140363777">Adam Ozimek</a> explains how excessive inflation made the world economy a heavier burden for many consumers. I get that for younger workers with good incomes, non tradable sector inflation is more of an irritation than anything. However, for many who have recently retired, such as myself, there's still a higher price level for housing and vital time based services which may be permanent, even if it no longer increases. This reality has dramatically changed the life expectations and trajectory of retirees who are mostly dependent on Social Security.</p><p>Again, much of what transpired relates to the secondary or non tradable sectors I've written about over the years. I still believe a lot of fiscally induced austerity could have been avoided in the near future, had proactive measures been taken for building manufacture and knowledge maintenance in domestic markets. Yet governments now focus instead on industrial policy which largely involves tradable sector activity. While some of this could turn out well, still recall how many of these institutions eventually find their way back to good deflation via internal means. Whereas we could have realized clear benefits from innovation in domestic non tradable sectors. Indeed, careful attention to the creation of good deflation in these markets, might have kept our government from becoming so unstable in the first place. </p><p>In all of this, what if Fitch wasn't an "appropriate" institution to raise a fuss about government fiscal shortcomings? <a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-5c060f6c-59ae-4dc5-bb0f-6c99b2bf7885.html">Axios wrote:</a> </p><p></p><blockquote>There is no doubt that U.S. policymaking can be a messy affair and that the current deficit trajectory is problematic. But it's not as if credit analysts have special insight into the scale of those challenges or how likely they are to spill over into some kind of default or crisis.</blockquote><p>Well, who else should have suggested taking action, in their stead? For that matter, what institutions have we created, that are specifically positioned to address such concerns? Perhaps one reason such warnings went unheeded, is that no such institution exists. What we have isn't designed for these tasks in the first place. It seemed every time institutional "onlookers" referred to the medium term problems of fiscal burdens - even onlookers with extremely important responsibilities - people reasoned how they should not concern themselves with such things. </p><p>The result? We inadvertently destroyed much of the impetus that might have existed, to address "medium term" concerns regarding fiscal burdens. Nevertheless, kudos to those who continued to sound the alarm just the same. That said, talking about it was only a starting point. The <i>real</i> challenge in all this, was to start doing things, and often just <i>simplifying</i> things, so as to actually <b>reduce</b> daily living costs for consumers on a regular basis. Then, and only then, a real chance to reduce government fiscal burdens as well, in a way that likely doesn't necessitate punishing austerity. Is there still a chance of doing so? I have grown tired and weary, and I'm hardly the only one.</p><p></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-88588485886545047902023-07-30T17:56:00.000-07:002023-07-30T18:03:19.651-07:00Wrap Up for July 2023<p><a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/are-we-overproducing-elites-and-instability/">Peter Turchin discusses his new book <i>End Times</i>.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/06/the-return-of-industrial-policy-douglas-irwin">Should emerging economies follow the new "turning inward" consensus that includes national industry subsidies?</a></p><p>Even if moderation seems like common sense, <a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/07/04/craiutu-on-the-courage-and-nonconformism-of-moderation/">sometimes it's perceived as a weak virtue.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-new-1970s">The 2020s as the new 1970s?</a></p><p><a href="https://theovershoot.co/p/the-overshoot-turns-2">Matthew Klein reflects on his first two years publishing The Overshoot.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-story-of-titanium">The story of titanium is a surprising one.</a></p><p><a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-225-not-de-escalation-or">Janet Yellen's China trip was one of "managed tension".</a> Plus, <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/china-at-the-peak">China appears to be at the height of its powers.</a></p><p><a href="https://timharford.com/2023/07/what-an-amusement-park-can-teach-us-about-central-banks/">Storytelling can help people understand the role of central banks.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/road-map-of-the-world/">Visualizing the roads of the world.</a></p><p><a href="https://books.worksinprogress.co/book/maintenance-of-everything/vehicles/three-maintenance-philosophies-fought-for-control-of-the-auto-industry/1">The auto industry was born from three different maintenance philosophies.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/expecting-the-unexpected/">Scott Sumner considers some aspects of recession risk.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/07/10/can-exports-of-services-spearhead-development-2/">Will services exports become a more substantial part of economic development?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-mail-order">Remembering when it was possible to order kits for home building by mail.</a></p><p><a href="https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/nonprofit-hospitals-tax-breaks-community-benefit/">State and local tax exemptions for non profit hospitals, are increasingly being questioned.</a> </p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/07/13/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-reaches-the-debt-bailout-stage/">After 10 years, the belt and road initiative has reached the debt bailout stage.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.themintmagazine.com/paradigm-shift/">What lies on the other side of our unsettled times?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/grading-the-economic-schools-of-thought">Noah Smith grades "economic schools of thought".</a></p><p><a href="https://thehill.com/business/housing/4093645-banks-are-bailing-on-small-mortgages-driving-buyers-to-risky-alternatives/">Many banks are no longer willing to take on small mortgages.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/07/13/1187540763/budget-federal-deficit-nationa-debt-ceiling">The federal deficit almost tripled in the first nine months of the fiscal year.</a> And <a href="https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1679665805586231298">interest costs on government debt are quickly rising.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-next-level-of-rich-an-exercise-in-definite-optimism-part-2/">The path to mass flourishing particularly depends on (greatly) reduced consumer costs.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-pushback-against-industrial-policy">When it comes to industrial policy, much more is at stake than "good jobs".</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/economics/housing-prices-surge-rents-homeowners-fight-rcna93789">NIMBYs continue their opposition to more accessible housing.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31427">Sectoral imbalances lead to losses in total factor productivity</a>. Plus, <a href="https://twitter.com/DAcemogluMIT/status/1678767911744438276">some clarification.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-possible-relevance-of-joseph-tainter/">How does the work of Joseph Tainter hold relevance for the present?</a></p><p><a href="https://andolfatto.blogspot.com/2023/07/constrained-efficient-inflation.html">Was there a "constrained efficient inflation"?</a> Marcus Nunes <a href="https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/post-c-19-inflation-the-story-of">responds</a>. </p><p><a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/508352/americans-confidence-higher-education-down-sharply.aspx">Confidence in the value of higher education, continues to decline.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/07/18/what-are-the-10-top-challenges-for-health-policy/">A new healthcare journal looks at some of healthcare's most pressing challenges.</a></p><p><a href="https://theweek.com/feature/briefing/1025060/the-us-veterinarian-shortage-crisis">Veterinarians face some of the same supply side problems as physicians.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-fc5b9f57-4936-4077-b68c-a0de6945f1db.html">"Will interest rates eventually revert back to pre-pandemic norms?"</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/07/19/productivity-research-where-its-been-where-its-headed/">Timothy Taylor highlights a life spent in productivity research</a>. </p><p><a href="https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/the-marginal-revolution-is-dead">What if marginal costs and calculations aren't really relevant anymore?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/rust-belt-on-the-rhine-the-deindustrialization-of-germany/">It's hard to fathom how Germany has deindustrialized in recent years.</a></p><p><a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-228-polarization-the-bigger">Skills polarization has come to China.</a> Yet neither China <i>or the West</i> has begun to address it.</p><p><a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2023/rural-americans-struggle-medical-bills-and-health-care-affordability">Rural people in the U.S. have struggled to maintain healthcare access.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/07/25/levitt-interviews-solow-on-life-events-and-economic-growth/">Some notes from an interview with Robert Solow.</a></p><p><a href="http://paulgraham.com/greatwork.html">A great essay about "great work".</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31455">I'd never thought about increased levels of physical pain during the Great Recession, but it makes sense.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/07/28/1189476655/farm-workers-labor-shortage-h2a-visa-dan-newhouse-immigration">Labour shortages will ultimately change the nature of rural farming.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-global-livestock-distribution-and-density/">Visualizing global livestock densities.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-66205922923058943422023-06-29T22:22:00.000-07:002023-06-29T22:30:20.493-07:00Wrap Up for June 2023<p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31278">Service sector companies are less likely to use tax cuts in ways that promote growth and investment capacity.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/real-estate-is-chinas-economic-achilles">Can China transition from its local real estate patterns to more closely resemble developed countries?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-grid-part-ii-the-golden-age-of">Brian Potter highlights the "golden age of the power industry" (Part II).</a></p><p><a href="https://www.aei.org/research-products/working-paper/will-a-recovery-of-real-wages-obstruct-progress-toward-disinflation/">Would a recovery of real wages pose problems for needed reductions in inflation?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/education-plus-development/2023/05/22/why-understanding-the-historical-purposes-of-modern-schooling-matters-today/">Modern schooling was built to foster national identities, democratic civic engagement and economic development, rather than local community engagement and support.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/how-the-banking-system-changed-post">Banking has adapted since the Silicon Valley Bank's demise.</a></p><p><a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/silvopasture-ancient-farm-practice-renaissance/">Farmers are starting to return to the integration of forest and pastureland.</a></p><p><a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/100-years-of-urban-housing-success/">"You can't tell how much someone earns simply by looking at their home address."</a></p><p><a href="https://jrobertsmacroecon.wordpress.com/2023/06/08/expectations-then-and-now/">Expectations play a more important role in inflation today, than was once the case.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-wolf-is-getting-closer/">The U.S. budget deficit has reached a point it is starting to reduce living standards.</a></p><p>The current <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/06/why-mediocre-gdp-growth-and-a-strong-labor-market.html">mediocre GDP growth with its unusual component of labour scarcity</a>, might be a result of two current trends: secondary market services sector dominance, in a historical moment when relatively more services sector labour is required due to a growing wave of retiring baby boomers. Which could also explain why <a href="https://thedangerouseconomist.blogspot.com/2023/06/get-ready-for-full-employment-recession.html">some now expect a full-employment recession.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/06/09/1179415899/oil-production-gas-prices-opec-climate-change-permian-basin-texas">Oil producers are learning to avoid the boom and bust patterns of yesteryear.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-uks-stagnation">The UK has recently faced declining living standards.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/economic-freedom-map-2023/">A 2023 map for economic freedom.</a> Also, <a href="https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-worlds-largest-lithium-producers/">countries with good options for lithium production.</a></p><p><a href="https://theweek.com/in-depth/1024202/homeschool-in-the-us">Homeschooling is becoming more diverse in the United States.</a></p><p><a href="https://growthecon.com/feed/2023/06/13/Europe-Prod1.html">The productivity slowdown in Europe is different from what has transpired in the U.S.</a> Also, <a href="https://dietrichvollrath.substack.com/p/the-slowdown-in-europe-via-human">part 2.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/06/15/update-on-us-budget-deficits-if-anyone-cares/">The constituency for smaller budget deficits is small indeed.</a></p><p><a href="https://coppolacomment.substack.com/p/inflation-and-grief">Inflation also involves grief processes which must be dealt with.</a></p><p><a href="https://jwmason.org/slackwire/varieties-of-industrial-policy/">J.W. Mason responds</a> to <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/hpbj2/">a paper by Daniela Gabor</a> re industrial policy.</p><p><a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-dream-of-deregulation-the-grid">More on the electric power grid (part III)</a>. <a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-grid-part-iv-the-hard-and-soft">Part IV</a>. And, <a href="https://twitter.com/AlecStapp/status/1674116902333960197">grid reliability has been less of a problem in other countries.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/us-supply-chains-are-recovering">Supply chains in the U.S. are starting to heal.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-birds-and-the-tees/">"Market" or "government" labels tend to be imprecise when it comes to actually getting things done.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31366">Income inequality has increased <i>within</i> occupations.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/steven-kamin-global-influence-fed-policy-and-us-dollar">Why does dollar strengthening cause problems for the global economy?</a></p><p><a href="https://coppolacomment.substack.com/p/corporate-profits-dont-cause-inflation">Consumer demand is causing inflation to rise, not corporate profits.</a></p><p><a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/unpacking-the-boom-in-us-construction-of-manufacturing-facilities">"Real manufacturing construction spending has doubled since the end of 2021."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/weight-gain-and-price-gain/">How might weight gains compare to price gains?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-end-of-the-vibecession">The economy seems to be doing fine. So why aren't people "feeling" it?</a> Plus, <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/maximum-canada-is-happening">Canada has a strong immigration strategy. Now it just needs to build more housing.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31387">The urban wage premium has declined.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-49115156865036998182023-05-31T17:26:00.000-07:002023-05-31T17:30:43.290-07:00Wrap Up for May 2023<p><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2804309">ChatGPT was actually more accurate and empathetic than the doctors.</a></p><p>I was interested in the <a href="https://www.promarket.org/2023/05/01/lowering-the-barriers-to-entry-for-economics-research-in-healthcare/">sixth chapter of this eBook</a> as it explores issues surrounding rural healthcare markets.</p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-faces-a-long-road-ahead-in-healthcare--it-lacks-structure-204935219.html">It's not yet clear how AI can benefit healthcare at a basic level.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/2023/05/02/a-debate-should-u-s-raise-the-250000-ceiling-on-deposit-insurance/">A debate on the $250,000 deposit insurance ceiling.</a></p><p>Imagine if rural communities in the U.S. had viable <a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/the-barefoot-college-reinventing-rural-education/">non formal learning centers such as this.</a> Instead, taxpayers are still expected to support local educational institutions which - although they hold value, don't emphasize practical survival methods or local social connections.</p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-new-industrial-policy-explained">What makes industrial policy today different from the past?</a></p><p><a href="https://pricetheory.substack.com/p/are-banks-inherently-fragile">"Are banks inherently fragile?"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-bipartisan-immigration-policy-that-helps-rural-americans-get-access-to-local-physicians/">Immigration has proved a lifesaver for rural citizens who otherwise struggle to access local physicians.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/debt-ceiling-brinksmanship-is-terrible">"Austerity" doesn't have to be a dirty word this time.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1654525114531053578">Recession? The most important monthly indicators remain strong.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/what-current-macro-puzzle/">Rising interest rates are still being confused with monetary tightening.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/which-jobs-artificial-intelligence-gpt-impact/">What work is most exposed to ChatGPT?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-risks-still-lurking-in-the-banking">There are still risks in the banking system.</a></p><p><a href="https://brinklindsey.substack.com/p/envisioning-the-next-level">Brink Lindsay begins to explore definite positive actions.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23717600/high-inflation-cpi-climate-change-population-aging">Two factors particularly account for the possibility of long term inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://timharford.com/2023/05/why-is-the-field-of-economics-still-so-elitist/">The economics profession has a class problem.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/who-wins-us-debt-default-china">Debt default would erode dollar dominance.</a></p><p><a href="http://www.enlightenmenteconomics.com/blog/index.php/2023/05/false-lessons-from-history/">Diane Coyle reviews <i>Seven Crashes</i> by Harold James.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014759672300032X">Encouraging "doing business" is not the same thing as economic reform.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-technology-has-changed-the-world">Has progress slowed, or does it just manifest differently now?</a></p><p><a href="https://brinklindsey.substack.com/p/the-next-level-of-rich">Brink Lindsey considers ways that life could ultimately be made more affordable.</a></p><p>Robert Lucas: <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/thus-passes-robert-lucas">His greatest strength was asking good questions, which in turn motivated people to find solutions.</a> <a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/05/16/robert-e-lucas-jr-1937-2023/">Timothy Taylor highlights some of his thoughts on economic growth.</a> In particular, <a href="https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2023/05/bob-lucas-and-his-papers.html">he made people think about general equilibrium differently.</a> Plus, <a href="http://www.tomsargent.com/research/Learning_from_Lucas.pdf">Thomas Sargent highlights recollections of time spent with Lucas.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/machines-of-mind-the-case-for-an-ai-powered-productivity-boom/">The productivity potential of AI.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1658524014430519301">A larger framing for fiscal burdens.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/jeanna-smialek-limitless-federal-reserve-takes-new-age-crisis">Jeanna Smialek has written a new book on the recent evolution of the Federal Reserve.</a></p><p><a href="https://eig.org/reshaping-the-manufacturing-sector/">There's a resurgence in manufacturing across the U.S.</a></p><p><a href="https://fivebooks.com/best-books/world-economy-martin-wolf/">Martin Wolf recommends five books on the world economy.</a></p><p><a href="https://theprogressnetwork.org/debt-ceiling-us/">What if no debt ceiling crisis actually exists?</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1659548665407479808">Might low inflation return?</a> <a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-2becd30c-2b93-44c3-8e9a-a4750587fb02.html">It's certainly a possibility.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/a-softer-landing-on-a-longer-runway">What may transpire this time instead of a recession.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/decoupling-is-just-going-to-happen">Decoupling is inevitable. What will be changed?</a> Also, <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/interview-dan-wang-china-specialist">an interview with Dan Wang.</a></p><p>David Beckworth <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1658524014430519301">highlights a paper re 400 years of central bank balances.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/dan-mcdowell-bucking-buck-us-financial-sanctions-and-international-backlash-against">Dan McDowell details the international backlash against the dollar in a new book.</a></p><p>There's a 1949 electrical transmission grid map in this <a href="https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-birth-of-the-grid">Construction Physics post.</a> What especially stood out to me was an area in East Texas which didn't yet have lines. Many relatives from both sides of my family were - at the time - living here.</p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/furman-and-bernanke-on-ngdp-as-an-indicator/">"Furman and Bernanke on NGDP as an indicator."</a></p><p><a href="https://eig.org/remote-work-geography/">The geography of remote work is still evolving.</a></p><p><a href="https://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2023/05/securonomics-vs-productivity.html">If globalization is "dead", what happens to productivity?</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelRStrain/status/1662094174114422785">Michael Strain on the debt ceiling debacle.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/real-gdp-and-productivity-measurement-what-do-macro-data-capture-20230522.html">How effective is current macro data for real GDP and productivity measurement?</a></p><p><a href="https://knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/markets-are-knowledge-ecosystems">Markets as knowledge ecosystems.</a></p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-threatened-jobs-mostly-held-162206629.html">Women hold many of the jobs which could be affected by AI.</a></p><p><a href="https://coppolacomment.substack.com/p/why-full-reserve-banking-isnt-a-solution">Full-reserve banking is not a good option to address banking failures.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1663209979954835467">R** and financial stability.</a></p><p><a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/new-paper">Kevin Erdmann highlights his recent papers.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-36215142883193932422023-04-30T11:00:00.001-07:002023-04-30T11:11:49.960-07:00Wrap Up for April 2023<p><a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-207-the-trillion-dollar">The Fed Put was invalidated. But what does that mean?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/de-dollarization-countries-seeking-alternatives-to-the-u-s-dollar/">A current visualization of global dollar dominance.</a></p><p><a href="https://fivebooks.com/best-books/industrial-policy-danny-crichton/">These industrial book recommendations aren't guides, rather, they are different ways of understanding the world.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-global-housing-prices-since-2010/">"...across all measured countries, the real price of housing has increased nearly 30% on average since 2010."</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/04/03/higher-education-and-the-ediface-complex/">Building construction costs are only about 25 percent of their total lifetime expenses, yet this is often not adequately considered.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.employamerica.org/blog/is-the-semiconductor-shortage-still-holding-up-automobile-production/">Auto inflation is still with us.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/bank-weakness-is-how-our-economy">"Financial dominance and fiscal dominance make the Fed's job harder."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/manufactured-housing-the-ugly-duckling-of-affordable-housing/">An argument from Niskanen for affordable manufactured housing.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/a-historic-labor-market-recovery">It's been a meaningful labour market recovery.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/made-america-puts-brakes-electric-vehicles-biden-hopes-push">When "Made in America" goes too far.</a></p><p><a href="https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/the-chronicle-of-the-revolutions">Peter Turchin has a fairly simple model of societal breakdown.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/europe-is-not-ready-to-be-a-third">Why isn't Europe ready to be a "third superpower'?</a></p><p><a href="https://crookedtimber.org/2023/04/13/industrial-policy-and-the-new-knowledge-problem/">When it comes to knowledge accessibility, industrial policy is as problematic as ever.</a> But for different reasons this time.</p><p><a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/east-coast-greenway-maine-florida-car-free/">"Greenways can be a simple low-tech solution to complex intersecting issues."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/george-hall-history-us-national-debt-and-government-financing">U.S. national debt has an interesting history.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-role-of-wages-in-trend-inflation-back-to-the-1980s.htm">"The Role of Wages in Trend Inflation: Back to the 1980s?"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20131004memo02.pdf">A debt default could have considerable macroeconomic effects.</a> <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20131016confcall.pdf">The possibility of debt default was also discussed in this FOMC 2013 meeting.</a></p><p><a href="https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/think-of-trumps-election-as-year-zero">How will Republicans move forward?</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/will-there-be-a-millennial-big-chill">Things have actually changed for millennials, and for the better.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/04/23/surprising-geography-of-gun-violence-00092413">Some cultural and geographic aspects of gun violence.</a></p><p><a href="https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/monetary-policy-for-dummies">A simpler way to think about monetary policy.</a></p><p><a href="https://freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2023/04/24/regulating-the-regulation-of-regulation/">There's more to regulations than meets the eye.</a></p><p><a href="https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/could-we-stop-yellowstone-from-erupting">"...stopping supervolcanoes from erupting is something we as a civilization are likely underinvesting in."</a> Especially since doing so could provide promising sources of electricity.</p><p><a href="https://brinklindsey.substack.com/p/the-possible-relevance-of-joseph">Does Joseph Tainter's model suggest potential societal solutions?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-federal-government-owns-much-of-west-housing-opportunity/">Might federal lands pose housing opportunities?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2023/debt-limit-drama.pdf">The debt limit drama has worse implications than millions of citizens currently recognize.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-death-of-first-republic">"The US banking system is still stressed."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.understandingai.org/p/software-didnt-eat-the-world">"Software only nibbled around the edges of the world."</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-35517237750386142642023-03-31T11:26:00.000-07:002023-03-31T11:26:19.183-07:00Wrap Up for March 2023<p>Presently, China <a href="https://twitter.com/Brad_Setser/status/1630235351594807297">globalizes its auto sector</a> as the U.S. (temporarily?) caters mostly to higher income groups.</p><p><a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/724289">On the decline of knowledge diffusion.</a></p><p><a href="https://timharford.com/2023/03/how-to-fix-the-british-economy/">What is really responsible for the failures of Britain's economy?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-loneliness-reshapes-the-brain-20230228/">Chronic loneliness alters the brain in unfortunate ways.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/everything-you-think-you-know-about">Lack of housing access is the primary cause of homelessness.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20230303_mprfullreport.pdf">Monetary Policy Report from the Fed dated March 3, 2023.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapping-worlds-forests-how-green-is-our-globe/">A visual of the world's forests.</a></p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sorry-fed-most-us-mortgage-170908211.html">Nearly one quarter of U.S. mortgages originated in 2021.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/conceiving-the-2000s">Noah Smith reflects on the 2000s.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/qe-and-low-inflation-are-not-alternatives/">Why isn't low inflation an alternative to quantitative easing?</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1632572142339387392">It didn't take long to reduce the debt/GDP ratio.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/joey-politano-fed-policy-inflation-and-current-state-us-economy">More (Macro) musings on the current state of the economy.</a></p><p><a href="https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/is-inflation-a-mystery">Keeping NGDP stable continues to be the best way to manage inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-was-there-a-run-on-silicon-valley">Noah Smith provides details of the SVB bank run.</a> And <a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-200-something-broke-the">a take from Adam Tooze.</a> <a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-feds-plan-to-rescue-the-banking">Joseph Politano explains the Fed's quick actions.</a> </p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DanielaGabor/status/1635167154042716161">The real bailout story is about much more than SVB liabilities.</a> The Fed's new collateral treatment is unsettling to some since it represents a regime change. However, <a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-feds-300b-emergency-response">Joseph Politano notes that the program is but a small part of present totals, and it might even end up stigmatized.</a> In all of this, <a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-wrong-way-to-think-about-moral-hazard/">there has also been confusion regarding moral hazard.</a></p><p><a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-203-banking-crises-states">Adam Tooze highlights various sources regarding the banking crisis.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-growing-auto-loan-problem-facing-young-americans/">Many young people in the U.S. now face auto loan problems.</a></p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-won-nobel-bank-runs-160025143.html">Douglas Diamond explains how SVB violated basic tenets of sound banking.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/LevMenand/status/1636527889314115585">Why did other banks come to First Republic's rescue?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.aei.org/economics/worried-about-market-turmoil-from-svb-it-will-pale-compared-to-the-turmoil-from-brushing-up-against-the-debt-ceiling/">Still, what if the debt ceiling debacle turns out to be worse than the bank crisis?</a></p><p><a href="https://andolfatto.blogspot.com/2023/03/theres-no-free-lunch-or-how-i-stopped.html">Or, what if the U.S. uses an inflation "tax" in a long proxy war with China?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/did-the-fed-cause-the-banking-crisis/">With greater nominal stability, banks would have fewer problems overall with their balance sheets.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/R2Rsquared/status/1637582380335595522">Ricardo Reis provides helpful references for dollar swap operations.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rural-texas-resistance-gop-private-school-choice-voucher-rcna75775">Private school choice is not always an option for rural counties in Texas.</a> Ultimately we'll need a new approach for local education, one that is not only economically sustainable for populations as a whole, but also takes student preferences into consideration. </p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31048">On recent declines in bank asset values.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31050">Banks have not responded quickly enough to QT and QE on the part of the Fed.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/steven-kelly-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-and-its-implications-financial-policy">David Beckworth discusses the SVB collapse with Steven Kelly.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.colorado.edu/asmagazine/2023/03/20/1950s-many-wives-financed-their-husbands-through-college-1">"The 1950s was an anomaly."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-hold-the-most-us-debt/">What countries hold the most U.S. debt?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/do-banks-create-money/">What makes it possible for banks to "create money"?</a> Scott Sumner explains profit maximizing and non profit maximizing factors. </p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-not-put-tsmc-and-samsung-fabs">Since high costs and immigration restrictions get in the way of semiconductor production in the U.S., why not encourage the more optimal conditions in Canada?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/26/world/flooding-cities-water-design-climate-intl/index.html">Cities are trying new approaches for extreme flooding events.</a></p><p><a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/03/existential-risk-and-the-turn-in-human-history.html">Tyler Cowen notes how our living history is rapidly changing.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/why-are-young-people-driving-less-evidence-points-to-economics-not-preferences/">Younger people are primarily driving less for economic reasons.</a> Younger people <a href="https://twitter.com/AlecStapp/status/1640327066959659008">also account for a considerable amount of the decline in U.S. life expectancy.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/breaching-debt-ceiling-not-same-government-shutdown-its-consequences-could">A failure to raise the debt ceiling is more dangerous than government shutdowns.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/brian-riedl-current-and-future-outlook-us-public-finance-and-budget-reform">It's time to get serious about budget reform.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/greg_ip/status/1640374789247254530">In real estate, there's a new east-west divide.</a></p><p><a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/jamieson/status/1637817227410825225">It turns out some of that "robust" hiring activity was actually an illusion.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/alternative-approaches-to-monetary-policy/">Scott Sumner provides a link in this post to a free copy of his new book, <i>Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy</i>.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/an-agenda-for-abundant-housing/">An agenda from Niskanen Center for abundant housing.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/feds-recent-bank-stress-tests-used-scenarios-little-variation-none-examined">Higher interest rates will be needed as a component of future Fed stress tests.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/03/25/1164819944/live-free-and-die-the-sad-state-of-u-s-life-expectancy">NPR highlights the "Shorter Lives" study.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-27289137340960181772023-02-28T16:44:00.001-08:002023-02-28T16:47:39.296-08:00Wrap Up for February 2023<p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/michael-strain-averting-looming-debt-ceiling-disaster">What might happen if the debt ceiling disaster can't be averted?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/fortunately-this-isnt-the-volcker-disinflation/">While the labour market remains overheated, excessive wage expectations aren't entrenched, and that makes a "hard landing" less likely.</a></p><p><a href="https://darrellowens.substack.com/p/ca-cities-to-lose-all-zoning-powers">California could finally be making progress with more accessible housing.</a></p><p><a href="https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/does-construction-ever-get-cheaper">Building cost trends are headed in an unfortunate direction.</a></p><p>Highlights of a <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w30892">recent NBER paper</a>, and Brookings notes: </p><blockquote>Julian di Giovanni of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and co-authors estimate the impact government spending had on inflation between December 2019 and June 2022. According to the authors, the surge in aggregate demand generated two-thirds of recent headline inflation. Of this, fiscal stimulus accounted for roughly half of the total increase in aggregate demand. Sectoral supply shocks, measured as deviations in the total hours worked, and sectoral demand shocks, measured as deviations in consumer spending, also contributed to overall inflation.<div></div></blockquote><div><a href="https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-gdp-growth-forecasts-by-country-in-2023/">Some national growth predictions in GDP.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/workers-are-enjoying-the-tightest">The latest job numbers are anything but recessionary, to say the least.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/can-india-industrialize">India could still become quite a success story.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/economics/remote-workers-left-housing-havoc-created-remains-rcna68874">After remote workers left, rural housing costs remained high.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1620445505632497664">Some real wage declines in the last three years.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/both-inflationistas-and-recessionistas">Velocity is an important part of monetary policy that is often missed.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/2023-inflation-forecasts-by-country/">Global inflation will still run high in 2023.</a> also <a href="https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-have-the-lowest-inflation/">what countries have lower inflation?</a> </div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2023/02/08/a-new-wage-measure-for-core-non-housing-services/">The White House is keeping a close watch on services inflation.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/dont-force-child-care-workers-to">Many jobs don't even need the skills sets that are taught in college, which is especially true for the care of young children.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://jrobertsmacroecon.wordpress.com/2023/02/09/what-if-the-economy-remains-resilient/">How to respond to an economy that remains stronger than expected?</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/governor-appointments-and-central-bank-independence">Are central bankers becoming less independent over time?</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://theovershoot.co/p/the-bank-of-englands-jonathan-haskel">Matthew Klein's interview with Jonathan Haskel.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1625142993115131904">How does fiscal dominance affect rising interest rates?</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1627742370497237003">For David Beckworth, a continuing theme.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/where-will-the-next-1000-babies-come-from/">Some predictions for near future fertility by country.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://jwmason.org/slackwire/new-paper-rethinking-supply-constraints/">How might supply side constraints be framed?</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://timharford.com/2023/02/is-life-in-the-uk-really-as-bad-as-the-numbers-suggest-yes-it-is/">Tim Harford worries about "chronic economic disease" in the UK.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/dandolfa/status/1626229612232704005">Some fiscal considerations regarding inflation.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-automakers-adoption-of-fuel-saving-technologies/">How have automakers adapted to fuel saving technologies?</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://antonhowes.substack.com/p/age-of-invention-how-the-dutch-did">What were the Dutch doing better than the English?</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/texas-hospitals-face-risk-of-closure/269-9c5d21ad-fa4d-45a3-a9f8-f09ac5f65682">Nearly half of Texas hospitals are operating in the red.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/18/business/used-car-prices/index.html">The pandemic is unexpectedly coming back to bite on used car prices.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/Gilesyb/status/1627681074003296256">How much have house prices really gone up since 1970? This chart is astounding.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/david-wilcox-debt-ceiling-crisis-and-crippling-costs-default">"...the Fed desperately doesn't want to get caught in the crossfire of one of the bitterest economic struggles of modern history."</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://community.nasbo.org/budgetblogs/blogs/kathryn-white/2023/01/25/rainy-day-funds-reach-historic-levels">States are benefiting from unprecedented rainy day funds.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/02/22/how-wwii-reduced-us-productivity/">World War 2 was not as good for the economy as it may have seemed.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://timharford.com/2023/02/what-lego-can-teach-us-about-saving-the-planet/">Modular is still the way to go for building in the future.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20230224a.htm">A discussion of the paper "Managing Disinflations".</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://worksinprogress.co/issue/plastic-roads">Plastic asphalt slows pothole formation and also helps to resist rainwater.</a> Plus, some plastics innovation is occurring below the road surface.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/dandolfa/status/1629149364819214336">Fiscal policy has its own effects on inflation.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-the-price-of-starbucks-in-every-country/">What accounts for Starbucks latte price differences by country?</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-build-nothing-country">Too many of the same obstacles to land development are still in place.</a></div>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-64875320369249373842023-02-05T13:07:00.001-08:002023-02-05T13:18:48.517-08:00Low Income Wage Pressures in General Equilibrium<p>As the Fed's efforts regarding wage deceleration continue, the good news is unprecedented job growth which <a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-us-labor-market-was-stronger">now holds greater responsibility</a> than nominal wage gains. However, while nominal wages were rising, low income groups actually benefited the most. <a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/what-does-a-labor-shortage-mean">As Joseph Politano earlier noted</a>:</p><p></p><blockquote>Arguably, the only group to see real wage gains since the pandemic has been low-income workers, with workers in the bottom 10% seeing very strong real gains. The labor shortage has also enabled rapid wage gains for young, non-white, non-college-educated, and part time workers to a degree that is nearly historically unprecedented, and was helping break America out of the cycle of labor market underperformance it suffered throughout the 2010s.</blockquote><p>How might one think about this phenomenon at a general equilibrium level? For one, even as the earlier low wage pressures affected nominal stability, the fact remains this group needed its real wage gains the most, since there's been too little supply side effort to generate housing and time based services for a full income spectrum. Just the same, the Fed was slow to react - and nominally adjust for - the fact many employers ended up "paying the price" to retain low income workers who otherwise would have gone elsewhere, or possibly exited the workplace.</p><p>Given this relatively brief but substantive rise in low income levels, why weren't there also real wage gains for higher income level groups? Indeed they've mostly missed out on this latest inflation cycle. One reason could be micro level pressures haven't been as strong as for lower income groups. Perhaps the lack of such pressures is due to (most) middle to upper income groups having sufficient economic options to remain gainfully employed. </p><p>Alas, while lower income levels still have fewer economic options for workplace participation, their employers can only offer additional monetary reimbursement up to a point. Consequently, some time based services which people find valuable will gradually become more difficult to offer on monetary terms, which is one reason I've argued for time arbitrage. Unfortunately, many municipalities don't yet understand this general equilibrium reality, which especially matters in terms of housing options. Consider also that as many Baby Boomers retire, housing and time based services limitations affect them in crucial ways. Not only do fixed income retirees struggle to find affordable low maintenance housing, retirees of <i>all</i> income levels struggle to obtain home services, since many of these workers have understandably departed for more rewarding employment options.</p><p>There's another important aspect of secondary market domination in time based services for higher income levels. While employment options are plentiful now for these groups, this unprecedented scenario still obscures the fact aggregate price making in time based services is only feasible up to a point, given general equilibrium revenue needs for redistribution. Granted, such revenues were expanding alongside originating wealth gains in primary markets during the Great Inflation, and more recently, via redistribution which accompanied global dollar dominance during the Great Moderation. However now, aggregate revenue potential for secondary markets in time based services is plateauing in mature economies, which is why high income wage growth is more likely to result in inflation. Indeed, this helps explain a recent healthcare paradox in Britain, which was <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/01/the-medical-culture-that-is-britain.html">noted by Marginal Revolution</a>:</p><p></p><blockquote>Universities have been told they must limit the numbers of medical school places this year or risk fines, a move attacked as "extraordinary" when the NHS is struggling with staff shortages.</blockquote><p></p><p>Lest this seem ridiculous, only recall how the conundrum is more evident for Britain due to the straightforward nature of its healthcare system. Less obvious are similar sets of supply side problems in the U.S., which are more difficult to discern due to numerous intermediaries between healthcare practitioners and patients. </p><p>Nevertheless, underneath it all, the evolving general equilibrium dynamic is the same. Even though secondary market higher income levels have become relatively less likely to benefit from wage gains, lower income levels must deal with the reality of partial and incomplete non discretionary markets. It's these incomplete markets which can create financial obligations that are higher than wage realities. So much so, there will likely be more instances in the foreseeable future, the Fed needs to adjust monetary representation downward once again, should low income citizens need additional wages just to participate in work activities which citizens and businesses alike, continue to find important enough to maintain.</p><p></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-19083602835738391282023-01-29T10:01:00.002-08:002023-01-29T10:08:15.769-08:00Wrap Up for January 2023<p>2022 was <a href="https://theovershoot.co/p/the-overshoots-2022-year-in-review">"supposed to be the year that we returned to normal."</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/inequality-might-be-going-down-now">Has inequality become less of a problem?</a></p><p>When institutions <a href="https://www.theifod.com/beware-the-shirky-principle/">"try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution."</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/HannoLustig/status/1609361063337938945">Wars have often gone hand in hand with high inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/is-employment-a-lagging-indicator/">Why is employment being viewed as a lagging indicator when it comes to recession?</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1610261628607512576">Chatbots are already good at answering common medical questions.</a></p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-countries-paying-people-move-151200545.html">Countries have started paying residents to move to lower population density regions.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2023/why-we-missed-on-inflation-and-implications-for-monetary-policy-going-forward">Real wages can fall when capital becomes the constraint on supply.</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/dandolfa/status/1610823496891867139">Still, some of the inflation run up was perceived as fiscal necessity.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/cblatts/status/1610785208395264002">Might pigeons be able to properly discern medical images?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/is-rapid-job-growth-a-good-thing/">Employment growth rates and NGDP are highly correlated in the short run.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/three-economics-happenings-of-note">Noah Smith highlights some recent economics news.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w30833">Highlighting those who no longer work as many hours as before.</a></p><p><a href="https://news.mit.edu/2023/roman-concrete-durability-lime-casts-0106?utm_source=substack">Some new insights on Roman concrete.</a> Still, <a href="https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/roman-vs-modern-concrete">there are good reasons for today's concrete to be built via reinforcement.</a></p><p><a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/mobile-home-park-flooding-relocation/">"A new model for mobile home buyouts."</a></p><p>Ideally, the Fed <a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/to-qe-or-not-to-qe/">could achieve its macroeconomic objectives with a much smaller balance sheet.</a> Meanwhile as Scott Sumner noted, QE seems to be the lesser of evils.</p><p><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230110a.htm">On the importance of central bank independence.</a> </p><p><a href="https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/biggest-sources-of-electricity-by-state-and-province/">"Biggest sources of electricity by state and province."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/research/soft-or-hard-landing">Robert Hetzel's proposal for a soft landing.</a></p><p><a href="https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/the-unhappy-quest-for-a-happiness-index/">Happiness is turning out to be rather subjective for precise economic measurements.</a> I'm still convinced that the optimal economic indicator, calculates how our economic time contributes to general welfare.</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1613530807800315904">Core CPI remains higher than expected.</a> The price of services continues to rise.</p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/is-the-fed-hiking-too-fast">There's no macroeconomic models which actually predict recessions.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-eurozones-unique-inflation-crisis">The Eurozone continues to face more supply side constraints than the U.S.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w30845">The decades-long decline in construction sector productivity.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/JonSteinsson/status/1613579995460562946">Has macro lost some of its relevance in economics education?</a></p><p><a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/_LukasFreund_/status/1613888846793416704">Technological innovations can take longer when higher levels of human capital are involved.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/victoria-guida-developments-federal-reserve-and-financial-regulation">Victoria Guida discusses financial regulation and other Federal Reserve developments.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/paul-tucker-global-discord-values-and-power-fractured-world-order">If the U.S. political system continues to malfunction, (think debt default), the dollar becomes more risky to hold around the world. Which would in turn greatly impact our way of life.</a> This argument is just part of what is an important Macro Musings conversation.</p><p><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm">The Fed is also paying close attention to core services other than housing.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/on-reconsideration-arthur-burns-was-still-bad/">Arthur Burns is not a good candidate for a revisionist explanation re 1966-1981 inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/three-books-about-the-technology">Noah Smith reviews three recent technology books.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1616319803136049152">De-dollarisation? Not yet.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/a-global-perspective-on-the-car-shortage">Global auto production still struggles with supply side issues.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2023/01/21/american-doubts-about-health-care/">Doubts regarding U.S. healthcare existed well before the pandemic.</a></p><p><a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/MSchularick/status/1615347923616759808">"rent dispersion has increased far less than price dispersion"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/john-roberts-macroeconomic-modeling-fed-makeup-policy-and-future-fait">"3.5% today is not the same thing as 3.5% unemployment in early 2020."</a> </p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/actually-japan-has-changed-a-lot">Despite other issues, Japan's housing policies have encouraged overall economic growth.</a></p><p><a href="https://brinklindsey.substack.com/p/prospects-for-a-more-inclusive-capitalism">Can we build the institutions that would be necessary for a more inclusive capitalism?</a></p><p><a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/peak-globalisation-myth-part-2-why-goods-trade-ratio-declined">"Why the goods trade ratio declined"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20230119a.htm">Lael Brainard explains that the Fed needs to stay the course on inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-189-the-ecbs-inflation">How will the ECB deal with inflation in 2023?</a></p><p><a href="https://marketmonetarist.com/2023/01/25/us-inflation-set-to-fall-sharply-in-the-coming-quarters/">Inflation in the U.S. should continue its decline in the months ahead.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/time-for-some-soul-searching/">There's been plenty of inflation which wasn't even associated with supply side shocks.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/LionHirth/status/1617522869063528455">This highlighted climate change statistic made me smile.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/secular-stagnation-not-over">Are we still faced with secular stagnation?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/can-the-housing-market-stabilize">The conditions that suggest a "soft landing" are possible in housing markets.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-38440521129600853532023-01-03T19:19:00.000-08:002023-01-03T19:28:47.061-08:00Don't Forget About Basic Resource Scarcities<p>Not long ago, some became convinced society's main problem was finding better ways to share resource abundance! But it didn't take long for a global pandemic and the vicissitudes of war, to remind everyone once again that resource scarcities are still part of the equation. For mature economies in particular, resource scarcities in the utilization of time and place are starting to impact how the Fed manages inflation. Limited markets in time based services are evident in high skill human capital, but this phenomenon is also emerging in simpler forms of (highly sought after) personal attention. Meanwhile, place based scarcity is reflected in the high costs of housing relative to actual incomes. </p><p>Still, it's easy to forget how these imbalanced markets affect current underlying inflationary levels. Instead, macroeconomic discussions tend to alternate between employment issues or irresponsibility on the part of fiscal and monetary policy. At the very least, some of our supply side resource scarcities should resolve in 2023 via resource substitution, which can in turn help ease inflation. Unfortunately though, time and place based resources need to be framed in more understandable context, before the Fed benefits from supply side assistance towards monetary stability. In the meantime, the Fed is reduced to inadequate measures such as reducing traditional housing starts, when what is really needed is more accessible <i>non traditional</i> housing production!</p><p>One way to think about the natural scarcities of economic time and place, is determining how we created too many additional layers of artificial scarcity to the real scarcities we already face. It could also help to respect the rationale that existing institutions initially used for additional limits to market access, then move forward to create new beginnings from this understanding.</p><p>Respect for existing institutions which work with resources involving time and place based product, means fewer attempts to dismantle them, and more attempts to evolve production processes where these institutions are actually growing fragile. Consider for instance what it actually means when builders cannot afford to build affordable homes for low to middle income consumers! Recall as well the fragile nature of healthcare institutions which can ill afford to function in many areas which don't benefit from vast wealth holdings. Both of these are institutional fragility. New institutional efforts would do well to create alternative means of social support to address where older institutions can no longer easily function. </p><p>Indeed, by not attacking existing institutions directly, we can still respect how they evolved to address different sets of social realities and historical contexts. For instance, Nimby based zoning allowed people to at least partially manage their personal fears around living close to others they didn't know enough to trust. Likewise, skills use limitations were a way to address people's fears about what might happen if they paid for services which turned out poorly. And enforced professional limits in human capital, also made it possible for professionals to live among others who already benefited from higher and more directly derived incomes.</p><p>Nevertheless, regulatory moves which increase artificial scarcity now mean basic non discretionary markets beyond reach of average consumers. Such markets also require a level of monetary representation which makes the job of central bankers more difficult. What's more, these domestic market income sources - not to mention their corresponding housing representation - contribute to an NGDP growth level which is currently too high to maintain economic stability. Clearly, more is now at stake than missing markets for lower income consumers, as this aspect of market dominance could compel central bankers to impose additional reductions in aggregate demand. Alas, doing so would further reduce the output potential of discretionary markets in more direct wealth origination sources as well. </p><p>Should new institutions arise to create broader domestic market options, they would nonetheless need to acknowledge the main reason consumers tolerated earlier forms of market dominance for so long despite lack of access: trust. Many countless regulations arose in environments where social trust had been eroded at least to some extent. Hence people became willing to pay dearly (when and if they could) for specific quality promises in time based services and housing options. New institutions need to build much more than just greater economic access, for they would need to restore societal trust through time value which doesn't require the same level of monetary compensation as in decades past.</p><p>At the very least, we've been quite fortunate our current services sectors functioned as long and as well as they have. Nevertheless, we appear to have entered an era in which today's services sectors could impart undue burdens for inflation, should new domestic markets not materialize. For this reason I might add that when it comes to Fed inflation management, I would probably understand if they maintain a "hawkish" stance in response to continued supply side inaction. Especially should NGDP levels remain as high as is currently the case. </p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-63046743942319125612022-12-31T18:49:00.000-08:002022-12-31T18:52:04.046-08:00Wrap Up for December 2022<p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aging-boomers-making-harder-tame-202545897.html">Aging boomers are just one of the problems for inflation, right now.</a></p><p><a href="https://theovershoot.co/p/slouching-towards-utopia-and-the">Has the "long twentieth century" actually ended?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/the-type-of-business-every-country-wants-to-start/">Most popular business starts, by country.</a></p><p><a href="https://ij.org/press-release/lawsuit-challenging-meridians-ban-on-tiny-homes-will-move-forward/">Perhaps more municipalities will realize that some homelessness is simply irrational and unnecessary.</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2022/11/04/human-development-in-an-age-of-uncertainty/">Countries are experiencing losses in human development value</a>. </p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/content-moderation-is-difficult/">Content moderation isn't as simple as it sometimes seems.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12072022/bonus-noah-smith-state-macroeconomics">Noah Smith explains how macroeconomics is still in its infancy.</a> <a href="https://www.econlib.org/is-macroeconomics-in-its-infancy/">Scott Sumner isn't quite convinced.</a> Both posts are certainly worth reading.</p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2022/fema-flood-risk-maps-failures/">"Local governments have been opposed to any maps that show an increasing risk."</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2022/12/08/predistribution-vs-redistribution/">What makes wage distribution different in the U.S. from Europe?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-believe-wwiii-is-coming/">Australia has been concerned about the possibility of World War 3.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-2022-economic-year-in-review">A 2022 economic review in 11 charts.</a></p><p><a href="https://fivebooks.com/best-books/the-best-economics-books-of-2022-jason-furman/">Jason Furman highlights five economics books for 2022.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2022/20221212">Inflation expectations are declining.</a></p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-wells-creeping-texas-cities-140014722.html">Shale fields in the U.S. are already starting to age.</a></p><p><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2022/12/government-debt-and-capital.html">Greg Mankiw's completed version of a recent paper for Brookings re government debt and capital.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-which-countries-have-the-highest-inflation/">A visual graphic for inflation by country.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/main-street-and-wall-street/">Alas, when the financial system is bailed out, it becomes more fragile.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/elidourado/status/1600569373579690019">Total factor productivity isn't what it used to be.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/joe-gagnon-25-years-excess-unemployment-and-phillips-curve-debate">It turns out unemployment was higher than necessary for 25 years.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/interview-ezra-klein-journalist-and">Noah Smith interviews Ezra Klein.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/9-charts-that-show-the-economy-is">There's plenty of mixed signals in the economic data.</a></p><p><a href="https://energyminute.ca/single/infographics/2310/the-biggest-source-of-power-in-every-state-and-province">What are the biggest power sources?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/most-innovative-countries-2022/">Innovation rankings by country.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-internet-wants-to-be-fragmented">Perhaps fragmentation makes more sense.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2022/12/17/social-security-evolution-by-cohort/">Highlighting Social Security "replacement rates".</a></p><p><a href="https://news.mit.edu/2022/physicians-medicine-guidelines-1215">Doctors and their families don't always follow the prescribed medical guidelines.</a> My thought: some may prefer healthy food options instead, options which are occasionally out of reach for lower income patients.</p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2022/12/21/the-inflation-takeoff-four-hypotheses/">Four hypothesis regarding inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/unlearning-the-macroeconomic-lessons">What macro did we learn in the 2010s that is worth keeping?</a></p><p><a href="https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/the-nominal-economy-leads">"Since the recovery began, velocity has been climbing back to its stable level."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/monetary-policy-in-a-shortage-economy">Demand-formation as a constant adjustment process.</a></p><p><a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1604971464834568192">An indicator for recent tenants captures more recent inflation changes.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/one-of-these-monetary-expansions-is-not-like-the-other/">What made the recent monetary expansion different from 2009?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/different-varieties-of-inflation/">Core inflation and headline inflation require different Fed responses.</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/heather-long-ryan-avent-and-cardiff-garcia-pandemic-reflections-and-economic">End of the year reflections on recent economic trends.</a> From Heather Long, Ryan Avent, Cardiff Garcia and David Beckworth. </p><p><a href="https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2022/jon-steinsson-interview-forward-guidance-the-state-of-macro-and-how-the-economy-is-like-a-rumbling-volcano">Jon Steinsson considers Fed communication and more in this interview.</a></p><p>Kevin Erdmann in a recent post <a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/reassessing-the-role-of-supply-and-c36">highlights when credit essentially dried up for lower income level groups.</a> </p><p><a href="https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/visual-guide-to-economic-indicators/">Three economic indicators, visualized.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/greg_ip/status/1608542262404984834">Is wage inequality starting to reverse?</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-41095972191731498902022-11-30T08:21:00.000-08:002022-11-30T08:21:33.678-08:00Wrap Up for November 2022<p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/economics/2022/10/31/the-causes-and-cure-of-the-2021-2022-inflation-surge/">David Beckworth explains inflation and the monetary targeting approach that could make it easier to manage.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/31/productivity-down-employers-worried-recession/">Workplace productivity is more of an issue in times of high inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~wwwecon/mysubmit/pdf-archive/4/2002.pdf">"Selection, Patience and the Interest Rate"</a></p><p><a href="https://nextcity.org/urbanist-news/in-austin-a-village-of-tiny-homes-makes-a-big-impact">A tiny home village now helps ease homelessness in Austin.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10242022/peter-ganong-dynamism-and-resiliency-us-economy">Peter Ganong on economic dynamism and resiliency (with David Beckworth)</a></p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/31/inflation-interest-rates-economy-federal-reserve/">First, curb inflation, then focus on other challenges.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/will-slower-wage-growth-dampen-inflation">"How quickly will wage growth slow?"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-doves-were-wrong/">Seven monetary policy mistakes in 2021-2022.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-arent-wages-rising-in-a-tight">Inflation has been particularly hard on real wages.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/how-high-will-interest-rates-go">Short-term interest rates will likely remain high for several years.</a> Yet monetary policy is still more loose than it may seem.</p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/when-destitute-small-towns-mean-dangerous-tap-water/2022/11/04/b5d2f11a-5c43-11ed-bc40-b5a130f95ee7_story.html">Water system management will become increasingly important in the years to come.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/04/1133586707/boys-men-labor-force-jobs-gender-gap-workforce">"Men are struggling."</a> Especially since the nature of work has dramatically changed.</p><p><a href="https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.36.4.103">"Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt" (Ricardo Reis)</a></p><p><a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/11/07/rural-texas-issues-event-2022/">Texas needs to stabilize its rural communities.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/macroeconomics-is-still-in-its-infancy">Macroeconomics is still quite young.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2022/03/24/the-demographics-of-multigenerational-households/">Americans increasingly live in multigenerational households.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.dwell.com/article/vika-living-flat-pack-prefab-tiny-home-aa05526c">Some tiny homes are particularly built with flexibility in mind.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/evaluating-recession-risks-amidst">A "soft landing" remains possible.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/healthcare-spending-versus-life-expectancy-by-country/">A visual chart of healthcare spending and life expectancy by country.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11142022/ethan-ilzetzki-international-implications-fed-policy-business-cycle-theory">Even though people in the U.S. benefit from fixed 30 year mortgages, this contributes to global monetary tightening right now.</a> My thought: Since housing is such a strong transmission mechanism, affordable non traditional housing could actually function as a plus at a global economic level.</p><p><a href="https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/the-end-of-silicon-valleys-20-year">Silicon Valley is changing.</a></p><p><a href="https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2022/11/15/nominal-illusion-are-people-understanding-real-versus-nominal-interest-rates">Despite rising nominal rates, the real interest rate is still low by comparison.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-labor-market-mystery-deepens">Why are there so many employment discrepancies?</a></p><p><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2793645">Which hospitals are more transparent with their prices?</a></p><p><a href="https://braddelong.substack.com/p/draft-talk-on-grand-narratives-and">A Brad Delong draft for grand narratives.</a></p><p><a href="https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/price-is-the-medium-through-which">Low income groups often need to move elsewhere once housing prices rise.</a></p><p><a href="https://flowingdata.com/2022/11/10/life-satisfaction-and-age/">Life satisfaction changes dramatically with age.</a></p><p><a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-likely-dramatic-shift-in-household">A slowing in household formation will affect housing costs.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/inflation-and-unemployment-good-news-isnt-bad-news/">Somehow the Phillips Curve has reemerged as a policy guide.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11212022/patrick-horan-and-david-beckworth-fate-fait-and-future-feds-monetary">How might FAIT be improved?</a></p><p><a href="https://asteriskmag.com/issues/1/why-isn-t-the-whole-world-rich">"Why Isn't the Whole World Rich?"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/france-doctors-europe-too-far-too-old-too-few/">Many doctors remain unwilling to work in rural areas.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1595800823442935809">Real wage growth is down alongside productivity.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/HuangYueling/status/1594749293117640704">Low income students tend towards more practical forms of education.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/charting-income-distributions-worldwide/">Some charted international income distributions.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/a-holiday-dive-into-food-and-goods">Current inflation specifics for holiday retail.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1596151777761509376">When negative supply shocks trigger output losses, how does this affect monetary policy?</a></p><p><a href="https://news.yahoo.com/gen-x-boomers-age-confront-153507767.html">More GenX and Boomers live alone</a>, if only today's housing could reflect this.</p><p>It's encouraging to come across an argument for <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23402638/mental-health-psychiatrist-shortage-community-care-africa">local community based care in mental issues</a>. Indeed, "task-shifting" or "task-sharing are essentially examples of time arbitrage.</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/davidfromterra/status/1595654492615503872">Some research re the city to government connection.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/the-average-lot-size-in-every-american-state-2022/">Land value differences in U.S. states.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/29/aging-population-inflation">Baby boomers affect general equilibrium conditions as they move through life stages.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-87119731957629771642022-11-23T19:24:00.000-08:002022-11-23T19:24:28.776-08:00Incentives Matter for Time Arbitrage Potential<p>An important aspect of time arbitrage is the need to secure time based services, starting with those which aren't exactly top career choices. Plus, these tend to be poorly paid, particularly services for elderly assistance. And since people who work for the elderly may struggle with their own financial responsibilities, they aren't always trustworthy and reliable for the people most dependent on their care. </p><p>Granted, it can seem the obvious solution is to ensure adequate pay for all employees, whatever job one happens to be responsible for! Unfortunately, societies have shown time and again that the notion of "livable wages" for all, isn't feasible, despite the tremendous need. My regular readers know that the fact money will continue to be insufficient incentive for such work, serves as a starting point for my own suggestions regarding markets for time value.</p><p>If we can't create markets which specifically reward time value, there may ultimately be cultural ramifications. For instance, as the costs of traditional healthcare and nursing homes continue to rise, societal expectations would increase for individuals to make undue sacrifices for their own family members. While it's understandable that existing institutions are less willing (or able) now to pay for time intensive services, we need new institutions which can do so in their stead.</p><p>When it comes to incentives for time based markets, one thing to consider is the need for autonomy, and how it revolves around ideas of fairness associated with shared responsibilities. Still, when we purposely spend time with others, those interactions often benefit from the undivided attention of both individuals involved. Indeed, this undivided attention can often be critical to services outcomes. </p><p>Yet attention to details with its associated time related costs, is often more costly than what existing institutions can still provide. When institutions <i>are</i> willing to pay well for time based services, they may expect high skill knowledge providers to commit to such a degree, that burnout becomes inevitable. Even so, excessive time commitments can be burdensome whether one engages in simple skill sets or high skill activities. In time arbitrage, a full range of skill levels would be apportioned so as not to create undue time commitment burdens. A fuller sharing for all skill levels, could also bring respect to work which is now almost treated as a form of social "punishment" for those who struggle with traditional education. </p><p>Here are <a href="https://twitter.com/andrewolenski/status/1592968417530679296">just</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/25/seniors-home-health-care/">a few</a> <a href="https://neurosciencenews.com/age-relationship-loneliness-21841/">of</a> <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/19/axios-am-deep-dive-boomers-elder-care-crisis">the links</a> I've come across lately which highlight the need for a better marketplace for time value. Occasionally I find myself overwhelmed at the extent of time based services needs which simply aren't being met at any skill level. Alas, as a society we have scarcely begun to address these concerns. How could anyone claim real economic progress, if societies keep trying to move forward without better means of coordination for applied knowledge and time based endeavour in general? The sooner we face the fact that money alone cannot accomplish these vital tasks, the sooner we can begin to create new free markets in time value.</p><p>How to think about better aligned incentives in this regard? We share a number of basic time commitment priorities in our lives which warrant consideration. One way to think about the processes involved is this: What services are specific individuals willing and capable of providing, so long as doing so doesn't interfere with or somehow impose on the other important facets of our lives? Recall that what anyone might be tolerant of providing in an hours time, is not the same thing as activities one prefers on a more regular basis. Yet markets which rely solely on monetary incentives, don't distinguish well for these differences in relative time preferences. </p><p>More specifically, time arbitrage could take place in several ways. The basic form would be agreed upon time share agreements between two individuals. These commitments would occur as close to the same time frame as possible. That said, it would not always be possible to benefit from time arbitrage on these terms. Fortunately there are also incentives that would compel individuals to commit time, for which one would hope to benefit at some point in the future.</p><p>For one, there are moments of spontaneity, in other words those occasions when people do something for others "just because". One way to think about this is "paying it forward", only this approach tends more toward monetary gifting than services. However, the voluntary actions of time arbitrage would be recorded in the same manner as other aspects of time arbitrage into a broader framework. In so doing, the initial voluntary action functions as partial economic unit which turns into a completed exchange (and its associated full economic value) once the provider accepts a voluntary action from someone which they don't need to reciprocate. </p><p>Another important economic incentive is the natural concern for our own well being, should we become temporarily or even permanently dependent on others in some capacity. This of course also ties back to the concerns of elderly citizens mentioned above. Toward this end, time arbitrage functions as a form of social time based insurance. It's an example of partial matches we can initiate in the here and now which might not be reciprocated for a long time. Such matches could prove especially helpful during periods when we fall short on more immediate time matches with others, for instance. What particularly distinguishes social insurance from monetary insurance is its direct nature, in terms of mirroring the kinds of attention we would seek from others should we become more dependent on them. One way to broaden the potential of time arbitrage for purposes of social insurance, is to seek matches not just for one's personal needs, but also in terms of home maintenance and/or care for family members. </p><p>There's one more consideration as well. When it comes to personal incentives, what are our greater aspirations in life? How might those aspirations change over time? Local community coordination would not be complete, if participating groups didn't make room for everyone to discover challenging work which suits their own motivations and long term goals. Recall as well, how this is the part of time arbitrage which has the potential to contribute to applied knowledge in its more complex forms. What's different in this regard, is the time arbitrage approach to knowledge sharing. </p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-45880635629375374672022-10-30T18:08:00.000-07:002022-10-30T18:08:21.392-07:00Wrap Up for October 2022<p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/gilt-trip">Three takeaways from the UK market meltdown.</a></p><p><a href="https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/reading-david-ricardos-letters">Some observations on David Ricardo's letters.</a></p><p><a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-157-the-bond-market-massacre">Fiscal dominance, or financial dominance?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/columns/y2022/gundermandiminution.html">Considering the downsides of divisions of labour.</a></p><p><a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/R2Rsquared/status/1576164387483549698">An explanation how QE communication broke down at the BoE.</a></p><p><a href="https://timharford.com/2022/10/what-we-keep-getting-wrong-about-inflation/">Tim Harford explains what we keep getting wrong about inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/axel-leijonhufvud-life-among-econ-1933-2022">Roger Farmer reflects on the life of Axel Leijonhufvud.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-new-economic-picture">How can the U.S. economy be worse and better at the same time?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.discoursemagazine.com/economics/2022/10/07/whats-so-hard-about-explaining-gdp-plus-inflation/">NGDP would be a simpler way to do monetary policy.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/anesthesiologist-putting-may-work-private-equity-firm-rcna51071">When it comes to cutting the costs of expensive skill sets, some cutbacks are more dangerous than others.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2022/10/10/a-nobel-for-insights-about-banks-and-financial-crises-bernanke-diamond-and-dybvig/">This year's Nobel explains why banks exist in their present form.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2022/10/10/edible-cities-orchard-free-produce/">Edible cities are planting fruit trees and vegetable gardens in their public places.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/are-you-certain-that-the-fed-has-tightened/">What if the Fed hasn't even tightened yet?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/brad-delongs-20th-century/">Scott Sumner reflects on <i>Slouching Towards Utopia.</i></a></p><p><a href="https://brinklindsey.substack.com/p/the-declining-leverage-and-status">Ordinary workers hold little importance in the health and progress of today's economy.</a></p><p><a href="https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/faster-please-the-podcast-10#details">Michael Mandel discusses productivity (and more) with James Pethokoukis.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/13/federal-reserve-tightening-fights-inflation/">The Fed's battle with inflation is far from over.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/who-could-have-foreseen-this/">Where Britain led the U.S. is likely to follow.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/secular-inflation-new-structural-sources-inflationary-pressure-by-michael-spence-2022-10">Michael Spence notes a changing global equilibrium.</a></p><p><a href="https://capx.co/we-cant-afford-the-state-we-want-and-voters-dont-want-the-alternative/">"We can't afford the state we want and voters don't want the alternative."</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/2022/10/17/4-key-takeaways-from-the-september-cpi-report/">Some takeaways from the September CPI report.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/fate-of-fait-salvaging-fed-framework">Perhaps the Fed's FAIT framework could be salvaged.</a></p><p><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2022/10/why-i-fear-fed-may-be-overdoing-it.html">Greg Mankiw thinks the fed might be overdoing monetary tightening.</a></p><p><a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/10/classical-liberalism-vs-the-new-right.html">"Classical liberalism vs. the New Right"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.futurehealth.live/blog/2022/9/7/disruption-for-healthcare-practitioners-3">Many medications were reclassified as OTC because of the wealth of information consumers now have at their fingertips.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/21/liz-truss-uk-markets-debt-ceiling-risk">American debt-ceiling standoffs may become more risky now.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2204305119">Wages have risen at the bottom in the last decade.</a></p><p><a href="https://fivebooks.com/category/economics/economic-history/">Some economics history book ideas for the holidays.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-system-of-the-world">Noah Smith feels that a "critical point has been reached."</a> And, <a href="https://chrisblattman.com/blog/2022/10/26/the-prospects-for-war-with-china-why-i-see-a-serious-chance-of-world-war-iii-in-the-next-decade/">Chris Blattman is worried about the chances of WWIII with China.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2022/structural-change-global-r-and-the-missing-investment-puzzle">The global natural interest rate may have fallen from 1.9 percentage points between 1985 and 2015. Plus, it's the least tangible capital that tend to the lowest productivity levels.</a></p><p><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2798115">Hospital policies should also "do no harm".</a></p><p><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/29/political-violence-1850s-paul-pelosi-00064107">In some respects political violence is all too familiar.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-42468879478245803492022-10-22T17:16:00.000-07:002022-10-22T17:17:20.672-07:00Might Good Deflation Counter Excess Monetary Demand?<p>What makes good deflation so desirable? It all starts when increased output is possible with fewer resources overall. Once price reductions per unit come into play, they in turn lead to real wage gains and higher productivity levels. I believe that good deflation could become a services sector response to counteract high inflation and rising interest rates. Given the many positives of good deflation, what accounts for such resistance to its potential in housing and time based services?</p><p>Even though both areas must deal with the natural scarcities of time and place, much of the bias against good deflation potential is inadvertent and political in nature. Not only are such biases protectionist, they discourage adaptive evolution in time and place based product - evolution which could otherwise augment their capacity despite their natural limitations. While time based skill and land as real estate are certainly not exponential in nature, they could still add additional output through flexible coordination of knowledge and land use potential.</p><p>Bias characteristics also differ depending on the markets and sectors in question. For instance, progressives <i>and</i> conservatives increasingly prefer a restoration of local manufacturing over global free trade. Fortunately - even though this anti free market bias will increase manufacturing costs to some degree - globalized manufacture should continue benefiting nations in the foreseeable future. At the very least, it's reasonable to expect good deflation to ultimately be restored in global markets. Once tradable sector resource access is more stable and predictable, it should become more cost effective as well. </p><p>Societies are fortunate indeed, that tradable sector activity is often managed for full production efficiencies. Still, during times of high inflation, we're reminded of the dangers of taking good deflation in tradable sectors for granted. Indeed, relying on the serendipity of long term good deflation (along with the more recent low inflation pattern) made it easy to disregard the long term inefficiencies of non tradable sectors. These inefficiencies remain in place due to countless quality requirements, many of which have been exacerbated by government subsidies. </p><p>Recall however, that these requirements end up as ever more inputs in relation to aggregate output. Even when quality gains are worth additional costs for some, other groups suffer efficiency losses which in turn require additional personal labour for non discretionary needs. Consequently when it comes to quality of life, some income groups are actually moving backwards. Again, constant calls for higher wages occur because lower income groups need to work more hours than is sometimes feasible to meet their financial responsibilities.</p><p>Fortunately there are already better production methods which could establish disinflation in housing - methods which could eventually lead to good deflation as well. Just the same, a considerable amount of social and political bias has prevented the majority of flexible housing options. In this restrictive environment, progressives tend to focus on <i>time</i> based constraints for meeting financial obligations. Whereas conservatives are more concerned about <i>place</i> based constraints, such as immigrants who are seen as competing for already scarce housing. </p><p>Despite the protectionism that stands in the way of production reform, housing is still a simpler issue to solve than markets based on time and personal skill. Hence countering excess monetary demand could begin with more flexible interpretations of housing for all income levels. Otherwise, many individuals will remain subject to the first mover problem of providing valuable services for others by more accessible means, only to be locked out of the housing necessary for this to happen. For that matter, one of the main reasons wages recently increased for the lowest income levels, is that employers were faced with the fact no housing existed nearby which their employees could afford. </p><p>Societies need to focus on non tradable sector production issues, since they are at the heart of recent inflation which is proving difficult to eradicate. However, there's something else important about productivity expectations which needs to be noted here. When productivity involves final product which is independent of personal labour, these areas do have capacity for exponential output. Since our economic time is <i>not</i> exponential, it often demands a higher price as a fixed quantity. In these instances, people rely on investments in knowledge and skill to increase their time value. Alas, institutions then tend to respond by substituting away from time based input, in order to meet their financial obligations! Despite the obvious drawbacks of this effect, our current understanding of productivity gains makes it a rational approach, especially if institutional budgets are already in jeopardy. </p><p>How, then, could good deflation be achieved in skills use without having to substitute away from time based input? One way is to make mutual time commitments, or time arbitrage, a valid and measurable economic unit. Skill sets would be voluntarily chosen and independent of monetary value. However, group effort would also utilize monetary compensation as a base to keep the process in motion. Time arbitrage might help societies maintain and preserve what they build and create, plus the knowledge and skills involved would be simultaneously measured as cumulative gains. Time as an economic unit of value is also one way to overcome the Baumol effect and ultimately, achieve good deflation in time based services. Again, production gains would transpire on completely different terms in these settings. Once housing production reform begins in earnest, economic validity for mutual time commitments would be the logical next step.</p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-75535719586526049052022-10-16T19:46:00.000-07:002022-10-16T19:51:06.344-07:00Use Markets to Help the Marginalized (Before It's Too Late)<p>In a time of rising inflation and interest rates, governments have to come to terms not only with fiscal limitations, but also limits on their ability to assist the marginalized - at least through monetary means. As national budgets become ever more unwieldy, many protective roles for lower income groups might ultimately have to be set aside.</p><p>Some would argue, isn't this a positive, since governmental support often tends to cause more harm than good? It depends on whether the domestic markets of housing and services can evolve for a full range of income levels. In the meantime, consider the harsh realities faced by low income groups when it comes to living normal lives. These circumstance are largely due to environments which were put in place by public and private interests alike. As governments increasingly find their hands tied in terms of public assistance, will private sectors become more willing to live up to promises about free market potential? Or will private interests - along with the political left and right - instead pretend that economic and social freedoms are no longer possible?</p><p>Questions such as this are in need of valid answers, not vague posturing and excuses. In particular, when people struggle to maintain their financial responsibilities, they become ever more vulnerable to government overreach. It has seldom been difficult to correlate poorly functioning markets with authoritative and restrictive governments. Worse, it's as if societies have forgotten what market freedoms consist of. For one thing, inclusive markets are certainly not a matter of coercing lower prices from existing markets. Rather, market freedoms are about encouraging the design of new patterns and production systems which function alongside what already exists, but with simpler resource requirements and system inputs. Indeed, previously existing markets could in many instances just be recognized as market participants with preferences for serving higher income levels, for whatever reasons. </p><p>When I think about production reform possibilities which have yet to see the light of day, sometimes I can't help but be angry such options never got the chance. If there had been good deflation in our domestic markets here in the U.S. we could have been better prepared for the extreme uncertainties of a transitioning global economy. In the past nine and a half years of this blog I've often highlighted people who've touched on these issues. Just the same, it's not easy to find individuals who are willing to commit to adaptive market evolution. Meanwhile I often find myself unable to tolerate the hypocrisy of left and right thinkers who always pretend someone else bears responsibility for what we've lost.</p><p>Instead of being cognizant of their own responsibility for free market evolution, many libertarians have stepped away from adaptive market patterns to take part in cultural battles. Small wonder that few really expect this to change anytime soon. Is it already too late to use markets to help the marginalized? Will libertarians stay focused on divisive rows and/or inconsequential details in the years to come? Why and how did we imagine libertarianism to have a ghost of a chance, if it was only about free markets for society's most powerful? As much as I wish for a better ending to this unfolding reality, alas, there are days I fear there might not be one. </p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-56742195575058526242022-10-09T06:39:00.000-07:002022-10-09T06:44:21.451-07:00"Political" Equilibrium is Not the Same as Natural Equilibrium<p>When might politically motivated budgets create too much confusion for general equilibrium conditions? Even though there's no clear answer, economic dynamism and long term growth potential may depend on how these matters are ultimately approached. It's now apparent that the fiscal dominance of today's service centered economies, could hinder progress in the near future.</p><p>Until recently, ultra-low interest rates were becoming taken for granted as inevitable. And not only did this prompt national governments to borrow in excess of earlier norms, it discouraged a rational general equilibrium framing as output driven. This loss of a quantitative understanding, has made it even more difficult to create productivity improvements in domestic markets. Instead, the fiscal "freedoms" of late are fueling the ambitions of multiple political parties. Alas, the results aren't encouraging, since fiscal policies tend to reward specific group preferences instead of positive market outcomes.</p><p>However, does fiscal irresponsibility account for a rising equilibrium rate, and might this impact equilibrium stability? <a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-political-equilibrium-interest-rate/">Scott Sumner considers equilibrium effects</a>, and notes: </p><p></p><blockquote>The "natural" or equilibrium interest rate also has multiple meanings, but generally refers to the interest rate that provides for some sort of macroeconomics equilibrium, such as stable prices. Throughout most of the world, the equilibrium interest rate has been trending lower since the early 1980s. Until now...</blockquote><p>He continues:</p><p></p><blockquote>A more complete model of the equilibrium interest rate might also account for the political economy of fiscal policy. Suppose that the natural interest rate falls so low that politicians become tempted to run larger budget deficits. Eventually, the deficits become so large that the equilibrium interest rate begins rising again. </blockquote><p>In retrospect, the new UK Prime Minister also went too far with the extensive tax cuts of her fiscal package.</p><p></p><blockquote>All of this makes me wonder whether ultra-low interest rates are not a stable equilibrium, at least in most places. I still believe that low rates are a technically feasible equilibrium, but perhaps it is inevitable that politicians in many countries will abuse the privilege of almost costless borrowing - right up to the point where that privilege is removed.</blockquote><p></p><p>Indeed, the Washington Post <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/02/britain-economic-meltdown-global-warning/">notes the new Prime Minister's predicament</a> and adds</p><p></p><blockquote>Across the supposedly advanced economies, the return of inflation has magnified the riskiness of extravagant political gestures. For the most part, however, politicians have not gotten the message.</blockquote><p></p><p>How to think about all this? For one thing, I'm inclined to believe that fiscal policy (rather than monetary and supply side circumstance) would not be responsible for a rising <i>natural</i> interest rate, whether or not a government "crosses the line" in this regard. Especially since fiscal policy correlates with credit dominant outcomes which substantially differ from the time correlated aggregate output of natural equilibrium. </p><p>In terms of aggregate output potential, total hours worked are an important part of the equation. Specifically, when considering equilibrium potential, one might ask: How much aggregate output is defined by exponential representation, versus the linear representation of (naturally scarce) time and place dominated output? Especially since fiscal dominance could eventually be undermined by expectations in the secondary markets of applied knowledge. And if service sector output doesn't presently appear linear, it's because areas of exponential gain are not being adequately defined in relation to the scarce resources of time and place defined product. In all of this, the fiscal dominance of political equilibrium is not well suited for the creation of a better defined and stable general equilibrium.</p><p></p><p></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3269720973556763912.post-66903371902637898212022-09-30T17:44:00.001-07:002022-09-30T17:55:37.660-07:00Wrap Up for September 2022<p><a href="https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-economy-and-the-paradox-of-technology/">Technology has shaped our world in many ways.</a></p><p><a href="https://freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2022/09/01/my-noodlings-on-business-investment-somewhat-personal-reflection/">Some reflections from Giles Wilkes on policy advice.</a></p><p>Just as there are missing markets in housing and healthcare, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4198255">the same is true for legal assistance.</a></p><p><a href="https://antonhowes.substack.com/p/age-of-invention-why-globalisation">Globalization touched many things, but it skipped cleaner forms of energy.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/yes-your-house-is-wealth">"Basing our wealth on housing is dysfunctional."</a></p><p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4161964">Idea processing and total factor productivity.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.apricitas.io/p/understanding-inflation-expectations">What determines inflation expectations?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/most-influential-values/">The world's most important values in a graphic illustration.</a></p><p><a href="https://freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2022/09/04/you-should-buy-and-read-restarting-the-future-by-haskell-and-westlake-but/">Intangible capital doesn't always mean productive economic complexity.</a></p><p><a href="https://growthecon.com/feed/2022/08/09/Additive.html">"Implications of additive growth"</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/american-workers-need-lots-and-lots">Noah Smith makes the case for robots and automation.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/dkedrosky/status/1566611402030063622">Some top economics papers.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2022/08/29/social-security-on-hold-until-2034/">Congress may not do anything to repair Social Security until the trust fund actually runs dry.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2022/09/09/work-from-home-disrupting-the-unwritten-labor-market/">Work is about more than just pay for hours worked.</a></p><p><a href="https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/why-arent-large-buildings-much-cheaper">Why doesn't building size contribute more to economies of scale?</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2022/09/08/job-vacancies-and-core-inflation/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email">Job vacancies as a key factor for core inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/the-global-dollar-cycle/">A rising dollar will have global consequence.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/understanding-u-s-inflation-during-the-covid-era/">Unemployment may need to rise well about 4.1 percent to sufficiently lower inflation.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/solidarity/">There are times when solidarity really matters.</a></p><p><a href="https://countercraft.substack.com/p/no-most-books-dont-sell-only-a-dozen">Do statistics tell us how many books have sold? It's complicated.</a></p><p><a href="https://ryanavent.substack.com/p/the-two-twentieth-centuries">What if the rich world isn't open to generating the new institutional arrangements that it needs?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sightline.org/2022/09/09/were-wildly-underestimating-the-potential-of-mobile-housing/">The untapped potential of mobile housing.</a></p><p><a href="https://bensouthwood.substack.com/p/how-crime-stops-upzoning-and-densification">Rising crime could set back efforts to promote greater housing density.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/09122022/scott-sumner-alternative-approaches-monetary-policy">Scott Sumner discusses his upcoming book with David Beckworth, and also his retirement from Mercatus.</a></p><p><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/august-inflation-update">An inflation update from Noah Smith.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-recession">The World Bank considers the possibility of global recession.</a></p><p><a href="https://conversableeconomist.com/2022/09/15/some-human-capital-controversies-and-meditations/">Our economic future has much to do with human capital.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-still-have-monarchy/">What countries still have monarchies, and how do they function?</a></p><p><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2796358">Even the insured tend to carry medical debt, which in turn can exacerbate poor life circumstance.</a></p><p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s11369-022-00278-z">Donald Kohn reviews Scott Sumner's <i>The Money Illusion</i>.</a> <a href="https://www.econlib.org/donald-kohn-on-the-money-illusion/">Scott Sumner responds.</a></p><p><a href="https://reasonstobecheerful.world/academic-career-planning-begins-kindergarten/">It helps to start career planning early.</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/nunogalo/status/1569684556646580226">"Who are the winners and losers from inflation?"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/09052022/hanno-lustig-fiscal-dominance-inflation-and-effects-long-term-interest-rate">An enlightening discussion regarding the importance of fiscal dominance, and more.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/14-charts-that-explain-americas-inflation">Inflation in 14 charts.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econtalk.org/raj-chetty-on-economic-mobility/">Russ Roberts talks with Raj Chetty about economic mobility.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w30475">"Long-Run Trends in Long-Maturity Real Rates 1311-2021"</a></p><p><a href="https://www.econlib.org/should-we-read-dead-economists/">Macroeconomics should be approached from multiple perspectives.</a></p><p><a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/2022/09/20/mancur-olson-on-oligopoly-and-social-norms/">Mancur Olson on distributional coalitions.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0176268022000106">Why aren't women better represented in central banking?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.secondbest.ca/p/libertarian-marxists-or-marxist-libertarians">What Marxists and libertarians have in common.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.noemamag.com/the-disappearing-art-of-maintenance/">Can maintenance stand on its own, outside of austerity?</a></p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/nine-facts-about-the-service-sector-in-the-united-states/">A closer look at the U.S. services sector.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/why-its-hard-to-measure-if-living">There's plenty of subjectivity in measuring living standards.</a></p>Becky Hargrovehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06893439243744595860noreply@blogger.com0