Sunday, December 31, 2017

Wrap Up for December 2017

Which "death blow" is more definitive? An apt description from Scott Sumner, re an important difference between the negative shock and the monetary response.

For time arbitrage, ongoing experimentation with skills capacity and time preferences would be part of the process. Participants would match (their mutually sought) time priorities across a diverse range of skill levels, with as many different individuals as possible. The more options for mutual employment any individual has in the long term, the more security one might maintain for social connections as they age. Equally important, is that diversity in one's offerings to others, is one of the best means by which to preserve personal autonomy. Nevertheless, experimentation does not come naturally to us, for we tend to be set in our ways and habits. An article from the NYT explains why.

"An oligarchic democracy may be worse for the poor than an arbitrary government."

"The money was supposed to go toward buying a legendary music studio..."

Is high productivity associated with low employment?

"Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes."

Scott Sumner has reservations re a Cowen/Tabarrok video

What was bitcoin supposed to be able to do?

"Endogenous Technological Change" (Paul Romer) and, again, "The Trouble With Macroeconomics"

"The facts are that a widening trade deficit, or more importantly, rising US imports, is associated with greater nominal GDP growth."

"Inadequate Equilibria: Where and How Civilizations Get Stuck"

For now, higher budget deficits.

Perhaps the flaw in modern macro is that "the efficient markets hypothesis is not deeply embedded into all of our models."

A most useful course on "Nobel Prize-Winning Contributions to Economics"

"Is It Better to Learn From People or From Books?"

What explains the decline in labour costs?

The University of Pennsylvania has an online books page for books that are freely available.

A recent study shows the close link between health care spending and lobbying by interest groups.

Hospitals are moving quickly to preserve their revenues.

Since 2014, Yellen has "seen fit to end QE and raise interest rates repeatedly".

"When it comes to urban density, we're not all goldilocks. We don't all want the same porridge."
This would be an important defined equilibrium consideration for any group that seeks to identify - via their own terms and capacity - the extent of local non tradable activity that is (reasonably) possible through mutually held time and resources. Both in the sense of physical environment, and time preferences for given sets of mutual responsibilities and benefits. No debt formation necessary.
"Communal-mode interpersonal skills may become increasingly important to life success - not less, as techies hope."

Baumol's disease, intangibles, path dependence, incentives and anti-intellectual prejudices could all eventually lead to regress.

the cascading effects of poor productivity: "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations"

"The safe asset shortage, the rise of mark-ups, and the decline in the labour share"

James Pethokoukis interviews Brink Lindsey and Steve Teles re their new book. Also, their interview with Russ Roberts.

When history is abused, it flattens the complexity of human experience.

"It's the first time I have noticed a persistent spread between inflation in one area and the rest of the country..."

Are the young subsidizing the old?

Some simple ways to think about models.

An AEI interview with Hal Varian

Bill Niskanen preferred a target path for total (final) demand.

The U.S. dollar has multiple roles in the global economy.

Scott Sumner has a simple but important message re inflation, for U.S. News.

Nick Rowe explains the natural rate of interest.

Sweden offers an interesting historical example of monetary experimentation in action, which also illustrates the quantity theory of money.

Alex Tabarrok takes a look at the sectoral approach He also highlights this recent paper, "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem" which is part of a notable research list for 2017

The rise of intangibles plays a large role. "Investmentless Growth: An Empirical Investigation"

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